Monday Evening Upcoming Storm(s) Weather Update

Updated: 0100z/20:00/08:00PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Pretty much clear, lows in the low teens to single digits maybe in far northern and northwest areas of NY and New England.

TUESDAY - Clear skies will give way to thickening clouds, temperatures in the high 20's to right around 32°, Snow and sleet developing in the LATE afternoon (SEE SNOW MAP), 1-3" (could change, but we doubt it) into the evening and nighttime.

TUESDAY NIGHT - Snow/sleet changing over to ice/sleet/rain and finally all rain by Wednesday morning, nighttime temps around freezing...WATCH out this could be a SERIOUS ice situation as ground is frozen, and a lot OF cold air around...

WEDNESDAY - Ice/wintry mix changing over to all rain in the morning (around rush hour probably maybe a bit sooner/later) will continue throughout the morning, may be a bit heavy at times... Should be a lull in the precipitation during the afternoon as the Initial [storm] moves out then starting again in the evening. Temps in the high 30's to low 40's.

THURSDAY - We have a BIG potential to waking up with NEW snow on the ground and snow falling, as a new wave forms off the back of the Lake Cutter and comes through Wednesday Night through Thursday afternoon/evening...We WILL have cold air in place and this could be a BIG storm...we will keep you posted.

FRIDAY - COLLD Rapid freez up Thursday night, Highs in the low to mid 20's, mostly sunny.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

We have a VERY wild week ahead! A bit of a break today and most of tomorrow before our next storm arrives. A lake cutter will form and move across the area. Since the Center of the Low pressure will be FAR to the N and W of us, it will be a mostly rain event - HOWEVER, we have plenty of cold air in place so watch out for a big THUMP of snow Tuesday evening into the night 1-3" locally 2-4" before a changeover to rain/sleet/ice into Wednesday morning then all rain Wednesday. NOW the interesting part - a brief lull in the precipitation HOWEVER, bucket loads of moisture with this system, and the models have been insistant on another wave forming along the Arctic Frontal Boundary. Cold front will come through Wednesday night, new shot of colder air, and a new wave will form to the SW of us and move ALONG that frontal boundary towards us. THIS would be our all snow event, or Rain to ALL snow event starting Wednesday night and lasting through Thursday Afternoon likely. At this point accumulations could be anywhere from 5 to 10" although that could change. WHEREVER this front boundary sets up is where the axis of heaviest snows will be. If I take an average from ALL the 6 models with snowfall maps, that gives NYC metro area and northern Suburbs 6-8" snow. A wet heavy snow too.

So keep an eye out for our posts - wild week ahead. More cold for Friday as well with a flash freeze Thursday night.

***THE SNOW MAP IS ONLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING***

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT!

**********FRIDAY NIGHT DISCUSSION - WINTER STORM AHEAD FOR SUPERBOWL FOLKS!**********

*******FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A DECENT WINTER STORM, ALL SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT******
HOW MUCH SNOW? WELL HERE IS THE TRICKY PART! IT IS GOING TO BE BRUTALLY COLD FOLKS, AND THIS STORM IS GONNA BE EVEN COLDER. DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF 15-20:1 RATIOS OF SNOW ARE PRESENT. FOR NOW, I WILL STICK WITH 10:1 RATIOS - BUT AN AVERAGE OF THE MODELS WOULD BE 
8-12", A MAX WOULD BE 12-15" AND A MINIMUM 4".

HINTING - WITH HIGHER RATIOS WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
PROBABLE 12-15", MAX 18-24"(BUT I THINK THATS A FAR STRETCH).

A storm will move across the Midwest tonight into tomorrow and form a slightly stronger low as it comes out of the Ohio Valley. FOLKS, TRACK AS ALWAYS IS VERY IMPORTANT! A MOVE SOUTH 50 MILES WOULD CUT OUR SNOW IN HALF, A MOVE NORTH 50 MILES COULD MIX SOME YOU-KNOW WHAT IN!!!! 

WE ALL KNOW HOW THE MODELS ARE...SINCE THE LAST STORM.

Pictures are worth a thousand words so PLEASE LOOK AT THEM FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE STORM!

TIMING, AS OF NOW, WOULD BE MID SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO RIGHT AS SUPERBOWL PARTIES ENDING!

OTHER NEWS: BRUTAL, I MEAN BRUTAL COLD COMING TONIGHT WITH BRUTAL WINDCHILLS FAR INTO THE NEGATIVES. PLEASE BE CAREFUL FOLKS!

****************FORECAST*******************

TONIGHT - COLD COLD FRIGID. Lows in the NEGATIVES, -15 to -20° BELOW with the WINDCHILLS, Otherwise Around 1° PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AS YOU GET NORTH AND WEST. WINDS 20-30MPH GUSTS TO 35MPH

TOMORROW - COLD! Highs in the LOW 20's, MORNING HIGHS IN THE NEGATIVES! ENJOY THE SUNNINESS - WONT LAST FOR LONG!

SUNDAY - Increasing Clouds as the day goes on Highs in the LOW 30's around 30-32° Getting COLDER as the day goes on probably, SNOW arriving LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO...MAYBE EARLIER FINAL DETAILS TOMORROW.

MONDAY - Snow Continuing throughout the day is probable. Highs in the low 20's probable.

FIRST CALL MAPS BELOW FOR SUNDAY STORM

TEMPERATURE MAPS AS WELL - LOOK AT THAT COLD!!!!!!

WINDY TOO FOLKS!

*******IMPORTANT UPDATE FOLKS!!!*********

**********TAKING A BIT OF A RISK HERE, BUT I THINK IT DESERVES TO BE PUT OUT************

LATEST MODEL DATA + SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOWING THAT THIS CLIPPER WILL BE ABLE TO PICK UP SOME MORE MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AS IT PINWHEELS OUTTA HERE AND INTENSIFIES, A BIT SOONER ACTUALLY, AND THIS WILL **LIKELY*** DEVELOP SOME MODERATE BANDS OF SNOW IN THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. I HAVE WATCHED IT TREND MORE WITH EACH RUN, SO DILLON AND I THOUGHT WE SHOULD UPDATE THE SNOW MAP. 

STILL NOTE, CLIPPERS ARE VERY HARD TO PREDICT, BUT I THINK WE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ONE!, OTHER SNOW MAP STILL IN EFFECT IF THESE BANDS FAIL TO DEVELOP...MOTHER NATURE DOES WHAT MOTHER NATURE WANTS!

*****10:20PM UPDATE FOLKS...I HATE TO DO THIS...BUT I GOTTA*****

Latest Data coming in, plus my own observation of the radar returns are leading me to believe that 20"+ Is going to be hard to come by, unless we can REALLY ramp up the snow in the next 12-24 hours. 

SO, WE ARE ISSUING A NEW SNOW MAP, ***BUT NOTE THE OLD ONE IS STILL IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES, DO NOT DISCOUNT IT*****. I ISSUE THIS WITH EXTREME CAUTION - IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH AT ALL FOR US TO GET IN THE ZONE OF 18-24+", BUT AT THIS POINT IN TIME, I THINK WE WILL JUST MISS THAT ZONE BY A TAD.

REMEMBER AS WELL, THIS STORM WAS NEVER SUPPOSED TO REACH ITS POTENTIAL UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT - SO WE STILL HAVE TIME. GIVE THIS MONSTER TIME.
COULD I BE WRONG? OF COURSE. BUT HEY, YOU GOTTA BE WRONG SOMETIMES...AND THIS IS A VERY TOUGH SCIENCE. FOR ALL WE KNOW, THE EURO COULD BE RIGHT, AND WE COULD END UP WITH 20" TOMORROW...BUT MY GUT IS TELLING ME DIFFERENTLY, FOR NOW AT LEAST.

NOT LOWERING TOTALS A TON, BUT ENOUGH.
IF DILLON AND I FEEL THIS NEEDS TO CHANGE TOMORROW MORNING, THEN WE WILL CHANGE IT.

You have to realize, that we can do ALL the forecasting we want, but nothing will be the observations and NOWCASTS. Do not take this as A CONCRETE THING, BUT MORE OF A GUIDE. Weather Models are guides, that we use to interpret and Observations of Radar/Satellite, etc. are the concrete things.

BLIZZARD WARNINGS STILL IN EFFECT, WINDS WILL STILL GET UP THERE. PLEASE BE CAREFUL, AND AGAIN THANKS FOR YOUR SUPPORT!