Tuesday Evening Winter Storm Update

Updated: 0030z/19:30/07:31PM

*****Emergency Alert for the Period NOW until Tomorrow Morning*****

Guys Obviously this front thump of snow has overachieved in everyway. Currently recording almost 5" at my house, and a friend in White Plains has the same recording. White Plains Airport is at 4.9" officially as of 7pm.

Please, please be careful - now we are changing over to an Ice/Freezing Rain/Sleet Mix and it will stay like this for the next SEVERAL hours before changing to plain rain around or after midnight.

Anymore Accumulations should be between 1-3" of this mess, maybe a bit more.

FORECAST

TONIGHT - ICE/freezing rain/sleet/snow continuing before changing over around midnight to rain. Additional Accumulations 1-3" if not more. Temps around freezing.

TOMORROW - Rain and dense fog, rain may be heavy at times in the morning, but doubtfull. The GROUND will be below freezing so WATCH out for Ice!!!!! GONNA be a really MESSY morning.
A lull in the precipitation as cold front comes through and storm pulls away, our second wave forming.

TOMORROW NIGHT - Rain turning to ice to all snow by midnight and continuing, temps in the mid to high 20's.

THURSDAY - Snow in the morning through afternoon tapering off in the evening. Could be significant accumulations. Temps in the high 20's.

FRIDAY - Frigid watch for rapid freezup highs in the low 20's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A rapidly deepening low pressure system will continue to move across Southern Canada and take over with rain after midnight tonight. As it pulls out tomorrow a wave will form off the bucket loads of moisture along the frontal boundary (cold/warm air) Where this frontal boundary will determine the exact trend of the heaviest snows, but it seems that the Arctic Air coming behind it will be enough to suppress the axis of heaviest precipitation along NYC to Philly. We would once again be on the northern edge of the heavy (ish) snows. Right now I am calling for 3-5" with a possibility of going down and up. Dillon thinks 1-2". What should be noted is that as the storm intensifies, much like today, the snow ratios will bump up especially from the air rapidly cooling. We can expect 12:1 ratios and maybe 15:1 if lucky. Also keep in mind that the heaviest snows are NYC to Philly - NYC is less then 30 miles away. It would really not take MUCH for us to get in the heavier snows again. An example is that Yonkers has a Winter Storm Warning for 4-8" of snow, and here in Irvington we have no warning and just 2-4" of snow. Not far to move!. however as of now this is the forecast. You could say Dillon scored a "coup" I still have my doubts though!

This second half of the storm should continue into Thursday afternoon and evening. Initial first call snow map is below.

Guys, even if we do not get 8-12" with the next batch of snow - it will be very icey, very dangerous tomorrow into Thursday afternoon. This is NOT a storm to take lightly, especially because of its long duration.

Ok thats it for now! Be back later if need be

 

smile emoticon

*******MONDAY NIGHT FORECAST DISCUSSION*************

***ISSUING an Alert of Light to moderate snowfall Tomorrow Tuesday the 6th from mid morning until afternoon and possibly evening***

YESSS Folks first Alberta Clipper will be affecting us tomorrow from mid morning until the Afternoon and possibly evening hours. THE characteristics of Alberta Clippers, which are usually fast, and do not have THAT much moisture to deal with also make it quite difficult to forecast...SO, I have a feeling, based off of the latest data from the models, and looking at other maps, that we might be getting a bit more then the major sites are forecasting, and it might be a BIT MORE heavy than you think, as was the Snow on Saturday (Short lived, but it came down!).
SO! Here is my forecast, and a snow totals map will be posted. ANOTHER thing to keep in mind - The TEMPERATURES aloft in the Atmosphere are SO COLD (Below 0*C) that something to watch with this clipper will be "Fluff" Factor - USUALLY we go by a standard ratio of 10:1 when forecasting snow amounts (10" snow = 1" rain)...SO, on a map, .5" of QPF (Liquid) would be 5" of snow. 1" QPF would be 10" snow. NOW, because these temperatures are so cold, we could be looking at a 15 or 20:1 ratio...so, .3" QPF would yield 4.5-6" of snow with a 15-20:1 ratio!

So, the models right now are forecasting 1-2" of snow for us based off of a 10:1 ratio...assuming that we actually get a 15-20:1 ratio, that 1-2" (0.1-0.2" QPF) suddenly becomes 1.5-3" or 2-4" of snow.

In this forecast, I have used a 18:1 ratio, and have combined all of the major models to get an average amount of QPF for our area. This is reflected on the map!.
ANOTHER thing with this clipper, it will be Riding the Jetstream the whole way...so, what is usually a fast storm suddenly became faster. I think that once it hits the warm water it will rapidly intensify, and slow down and give us more snow - which may happen depending on the winds in the Jet, or may not happen. ALOTTA tiny details for even a small storm!

OTHER THEN THE CLIPPER, COLLLLDDDDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON COMING THIS WEEK, THURSDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST. A MINOR PULLBACK THIS WEEKEND, THEN ANOTHER COLD SHOT.

************************FORECAST**************************

TONIGHT - COLLDDDD and Clear skies will make it EVEN COLDER! Those winds today was the first of several cold fronts to come through, and tonight temps will drop to the low to mid teens. Much colder as you make your way to the North and into the Mountains and NW towards the Canadian Border. Coastal areas a few degrees warmer then inland.

TOMORROW - Snow will begin early to mid morning and continue lightly, maybe some stronger bands but I don't think it will get too bad. Total accumulations 1-3" for now, this COULD change tomorrow keep an eye out! Snow will stick around until mid afternoon, maybe evening. TEMPS BARELY MAKING IT TO MID 20'S, COLDER INLAND.

WEDNESDAY - Highs in the mid to HIGH teens...Morning WINDCHILLS COULD GO AND STAY IN THE NEGATIVES!

THURSDAY - Highs in the LOW Teens, maybe even below 10*, windchills possibly -20* or less.

Friday we have another chance at a clipper, and Monday-Tuesday chance of a coastal storm developing which would bring snow.

SNOWFALL MAP BELOW, EXPECT UPDATES LATER!

WILL BE POSTING TEMP MAPS FOR THE NEXT WEEK, AND WINDCHILL TEMPS

WINDCHILL Temperatures for Tomorrow

High Temperatures Tomorrow!!! COLLDDD