Tuesday Evening Winter Storm Update

Updated: 0030z/19:30/07:31PM

*****Emergency Alert for the Period NOW until Tomorrow Morning*****

Guys Obviously this front thump of snow has overachieved in everyway. Currently recording almost 5" at my house, and a friend in White Plains has the same recording. White Plains Airport is at 4.9" officially as of 7pm.

Please, please be careful - now we are changing over to an Ice/Freezing Rain/Sleet Mix and it will stay like this for the next SEVERAL hours before changing to plain rain around or after midnight.

Anymore Accumulations should be between 1-3" of this mess, maybe a bit more.

FORECAST

TONIGHT - ICE/freezing rain/sleet/snow continuing before changing over around midnight to rain. Additional Accumulations 1-3" if not more. Temps around freezing.

TOMORROW - Rain and dense fog, rain may be heavy at times in the morning, but doubtfull. The GROUND will be below freezing so WATCH out for Ice!!!!! GONNA be a really MESSY morning.
A lull in the precipitation as cold front comes through and storm pulls away, our second wave forming.

TOMORROW NIGHT - Rain turning to ice to all snow by midnight and continuing, temps in the mid to high 20's.

THURSDAY - Snow in the morning through afternoon tapering off in the evening. Could be significant accumulations. Temps in the high 20's.

FRIDAY - Frigid watch for rapid freezup highs in the low 20's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A rapidly deepening low pressure system will continue to move across Southern Canada and take over with rain after midnight tonight. As it pulls out tomorrow a wave will form off the bucket loads of moisture along the frontal boundary (cold/warm air) Where this frontal boundary will determine the exact trend of the heaviest snows, but it seems that the Arctic Air coming behind it will be enough to suppress the axis of heaviest precipitation along NYC to Philly. We would once again be on the northern edge of the heavy (ish) snows. Right now I am calling for 3-5" with a possibility of going down and up. Dillon thinks 1-2". What should be noted is that as the storm intensifies, much like today, the snow ratios will bump up especially from the air rapidly cooling. We can expect 12:1 ratios and maybe 15:1 if lucky. Also keep in mind that the heaviest snows are NYC to Philly - NYC is less then 30 miles away. It would really not take MUCH for us to get in the heavier snows again. An example is that Yonkers has a Winter Storm Warning for 4-8" of snow, and here in Irvington we have no warning and just 2-4" of snow. Not far to move!. however as of now this is the forecast. You could say Dillon scored a "coup" I still have my doubts though!

This second half of the storm should continue into Thursday afternoon and evening. Initial first call snow map is below.

Guys, even if we do not get 8-12" with the next batch of snow - it will be very icey, very dangerous tomorrow into Thursday afternoon. This is NOT a storm to take lightly, especially because of its long duration.

Ok thats it for now! Be back later if need be

 

smile emoticon

*****SATURDAY 10pm UPDATE - WILD WEEK AHEAD GUYS, REALLY WILD*****

FIRST, Quick moving quick hitting THUMP of snow late tomorrow afternoon through Monday late morning. A small but somewhat potent system will move through the Ohio valley tonight into tomorrow and then across the area tomorrow evening throughout the night before moving out late Monday morning. NOW, alotta the weather sites saying 1-3" or 2-4" total...GUYS Sorry BUT NOT GONNA BE THAT WAY! Rain snow as well...Nope its gonna be all snow, MAYBE a bit of ice on the backside..

SECONDLY...Mesoscale Banding - VERY important in this storm, maybe more so then in other storms. The models are showing a large amount of southerly winds (flowing to the north) on the warm side of the Arctic air boundary...the models are showing this continue as the storm moves over us. WHERE the edge of this warm wind and cold air meet BOOM thats where we will really get that thumping. NOW the models cannot accuraterly depict this, so they are saying 4-6" (.4-.6" QPF), but wherever those bands set up could easily bring that up 4-8" or 6-10"...NOW, that could be high, Dillon and I think a safe thing to assume is 4-8" for almost all north of NYC...read map to see details

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NEXT STORM...OMG so much to talk about this, but will wait until Monday to give all the details...Timing likely Tuesday night through Wednesday night maybe into Thursday morning but that could change. It would be Snow to ice to rain to ice to snow to all snow and could be a lotta snow if this holds up - models trending colder by the day! Goodbye brief warmup!

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SOO.. still slowly creeping back to normal ISH temperatures in the next couple weeks, but the models are holding fast for below average temps at least next 40 days...soo we will keep you updated!
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TONIGHT - Cold lows in low teens to around 10°, clear, but getting cloudy.

SUNDAY - Cloudy with light snow developing between 3-6pm changing to a heavier more steady snow during the late evening through the nighttime. Highs in the mid to high 20's. WATCH out for that thumping, talked about above in the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT - Snow, HEAVY at times with THUMPING possible, maybe changing to ice/sleet for a brief period at the end. The storm will be outta hear by lunchtime the LATEST in NYC, most likely between 7-9am.

MONDAY - Snow ending between 7-9am, highs in the low 30's

TUESDAY - Cloudy highs in the high 20's to low 30's...storm approaching at night, more on this later.

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HAVE A GREAT NIGHT

********FRIDAY NIGHT 6:45 PM UPDATE*********

FIRST OFF GUYS, The Rivertowns Enterprise was NICE ENOUGH to write an Article on Dillon and me, regarding our Weather pages and Science Research. If you get the Enterprise, PLEASE read the article! Just skip the forecast for this weekend, when we made it there was NO indication of a storm for tomorrow.

THANK YOU Enterprise, THANK you to all of you who support us! Continue to spread the word, and lets get these forecasts to more and more people!

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**********PLEASE READ THIS ALL, IT IS IMPORTANT - POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS STORM COMING***********

STORM for tomorrow - VERY TRICKY folks, but Dillon and me are VERY CONFIDENT with our forecast!

A clipper moving SE off of Lake Erie will transfer its energy to a developing coastal low which will then intensify greatly SE of Long Island and move NE of Nantucket tomorrow night before moving out Late Sunday night/Monday morning for New England.

When the Clipper transfers its energy, it will be doing so more or less over or just to the south of us...essentially the trough will be extended back and slow the system down a tad as it develops throwing back a bit more moisture over us then if this did not happen.

ONCE AGAIN, EASTERN LONG ISLAND, BOSTON, EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS, AND COASTAL MAINE - YOU GUYS ARE THE BIG WINNERS WITH THIS, HOWEVER, HOWEVER, NYC AND SUBURBS, WESTCHESTER, ETC...WE HAVE A CHANCE AT SOME REAL GOOD SNOW!

Here is the thing with this storm: We have FRIGID AIR IN PLACE. We will have winds 25mph with gusts to 40mph, especially in the coastal regions. We have PLENTY of snow on the ground, most of which is fluffy and not compacted down.

DILLON AND I BOTH KNOW THAT THERE IS NO WINTER STORM WARNING UP, BUT WE FEEL THERE SHOULD BE ONE FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS:

1. Blizzard Conditions ARE POSSIBLE during the night tomorrow.
2. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE DOUBLED OR MORE, MEANING THE 1-3" ON THE WEATHER CHANNEL CAN EASILY BE 3-6" AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE 3-6"+
3. FRIGID TEMPERATURES
4. Snow WILL be heavy at times during the night

(Am I glad I will be in Jamaica?)

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ANOTHER Potent storm on the Horizon for Tuesday/Wednesday
More details later.

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TONIGHT - Not as cold as last night but still frigid! Highs in the high single digits to low teens, Windchills could still get negative. Clouds will start to roll in as well.

SATURDAY - Snow showers in the morning will evolve into a steadier light snow through the evening, becoming HEAVY at times during the night. Winds will be HIGH guys, 25mph sustained with gusts to 40mph or more. Blowing snow, and FRIGID temperatures will give to possible Blizzard Conditions. Snow will CONTINUE throughout the night and end EARLY Sunday morning. Temperatures in the mid teens to low 20's during the day, and FRIGID during the night as another arctic shot comes through, lows in the single digits and windchill values in the negatives. SNOW RATIOS THROUGH THE ROOF!

SUNDAY - Snow ending early, winds will still be up there, windchill values possibly in the negatives especially in the morning. Clearing out throughout the day, maybe some sun by afternoon.

MONDAY - FRIGIDIDDDD Morning in the single digits to negatives, warming up to balmy low teens maybe.

TUESDAY - Another possible storm? More later on this

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ARTICLE POSTED BELOW. 

**********8PM Update Monday**********

Total snow for today was 2.9" - on the LOW side of our 2-5" Forecast, but still within that. Boston on the other hand, and areas around there - THEY are the winners. Approaching 6-7'+ of snow on the ground up there!!

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Rest of the night should start to clear out a bit, any light snow/sleet/ice will end by midnight. Temperatures will go down in the Highs teens/low 20's.

TOMORROW - Clouds will continue to clear out, Highs around freezing, WATCH for ice that may have formed overnight.

WEDNESDAY - Mostly Sunny, Highs in the High 20's to very low 30's.

THURSDAY - Next possible storm? Could evolve into a biggie, but for now 2-4" ish of snow late Thursday through Friday morning. Watch this carefully though because we could be in for a big storm.

Next storm after that would be for the weekend, and also could be a BIG one.

INTENSE, BRUTAL and coldest air of the season coming starting Thursday into the weekend. Highs could possibly barely reach the 20's, with lows well below 0°. We shall know specifics later, but seriously cold air coming.

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Have a great night guys!!!

*****5:45PM WINTER STORM UPDATE FOLKS ITS COMING FOR US!!!*****

Remy and I have been following the storm all day long, and we have a few minor changes in the forecast. Snowfall amounts, posted in the map below by Remy, are mostly the same as before, but what has changed for the WORSE is the ICE. SIGNIFICANT ICING is now likely in the lower and mid Hudson Valley, Northern New Jersey, and Southwestern Connecticut. Ice accretion in these areas will range from 1/4"-1/2", which is very dangerous for travel. North and south of the these areas, ice accretion will range from .10"-.25".

The storm, which up until the 18z run had was trending north, trended slightly south again on the last run, meaning slightly higher snow accumulations which will be reflected in the snow map. The storm, however, has also strengthened more than expected leading to an increase in the ice forecast
as well.

The heaviest of the snowfall will occur between 11PM and 5AM tonight, when snowfall rates may approach 2" per hour. Between 5AM and 8AM, the snow will mix with and/or change to sleet and freezing rain from south to north and continue until about 3PM when it will change back to light snow. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS POSTED ON MAPS BELOW, SORRY FOLKS, SOUTH OF NYC THIS IS NOT YOUR STORM! - NEW ENGLAND - DOUBLE WHAMMY!!!!
Do not take this storm lightly folks. If you are going to a Super Bowl party tonight, try to be home before midnight.

IF ANYTHING CHANGES WE WILL PROVIDE UPDATES AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE, ENJOY THE SUPERBOWL AND STAY SAFE FOLKS!!!

*********************QUICK Sunday Afternoon Update!**************

The GFS and the NAM have continued their northward trend since yesterday, meaning that there is the chance of less snow and more mixed precipitation especially during the height of the storm on Monday. However, this means SIGNIFICANT ICING is becoming increasingly likely, which is much worse than an extra few inches of snow. For now, though, Remy and I will keep our forecast from last night and will re-post the snow/ice map we made yesterday as the European and Canadian models from midnight are sticking with significant snowfall for the area. Based on some of the data right now, the GFS and the NAM may be too warm with the storm, and they might head towards a solution closer to the European and Canadian models later in the day. Our current snowfall map is more of an average between the four models. We will follow this storm throughout the day and post again later on this afternoon around 5:00 PM when the next model runs come in.

Here is yesterday's snow map, which (for now) still applies:

**********FRIDAY NIGHT DISCUSSION - WINTER STORM AHEAD FOR SUPERBOWL FOLKS!**********

*******FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A DECENT WINTER STORM, ALL SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT******
HOW MUCH SNOW? WELL HERE IS THE TRICKY PART! IT IS GOING TO BE BRUTALLY COLD FOLKS, AND THIS STORM IS GONNA BE EVEN COLDER. DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF 15-20:1 RATIOS OF SNOW ARE PRESENT. FOR NOW, I WILL STICK WITH 10:1 RATIOS - BUT AN AVERAGE OF THE MODELS WOULD BE 
8-12", A MAX WOULD BE 12-15" AND A MINIMUM 4".

HINTING - WITH HIGHER RATIOS WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
PROBABLE 12-15", MAX 18-24"(BUT I THINK THATS A FAR STRETCH).

A storm will move across the Midwest tonight into tomorrow and form a slightly stronger low as it comes out of the Ohio Valley. FOLKS, TRACK AS ALWAYS IS VERY IMPORTANT! A MOVE SOUTH 50 MILES WOULD CUT OUR SNOW IN HALF, A MOVE NORTH 50 MILES COULD MIX SOME YOU-KNOW WHAT IN!!!! 

WE ALL KNOW HOW THE MODELS ARE...SINCE THE LAST STORM.

Pictures are worth a thousand words so PLEASE LOOK AT THEM FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE STORM!

TIMING, AS OF NOW, WOULD BE MID SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO RIGHT AS SUPERBOWL PARTIES ENDING!

OTHER NEWS: BRUTAL, I MEAN BRUTAL COLD COMING TONIGHT WITH BRUTAL WINDCHILLS FAR INTO THE NEGATIVES. PLEASE BE CAREFUL FOLKS!

****************FORECAST*******************

TONIGHT - COLD COLD FRIGID. Lows in the NEGATIVES, -15 to -20° BELOW with the WINDCHILLS, Otherwise Around 1° PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AS YOU GET NORTH AND WEST. WINDS 20-30MPH GUSTS TO 35MPH

TOMORROW - COLD! Highs in the LOW 20's, MORNING HIGHS IN THE NEGATIVES! ENJOY THE SUNNINESS - WONT LAST FOR LONG!

SUNDAY - Increasing Clouds as the day goes on Highs in the LOW 30's around 30-32° Getting COLDER as the day goes on probably, SNOW arriving LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO...MAYBE EARLIER FINAL DETAILS TOMORROW.

MONDAY - Snow Continuing throughout the day is probable. Highs in the low 20's probable.

FIRST CALL MAPS BELOW FOR SUNDAY STORM

TEMPERATURE MAPS AS WELL - LOOK AT THAT COLD!!!!!!

WINDY TOO FOLKS!

*********7:30 PM UPDATE**********

SORRY A TAD LATE! 
ANYWAY!

AGAIN, THANK YOU TO ALL OF YOU WHO SUPPORT US!

IN CASE YOU DID NOT SEE THE ARTICLE:
http://www.lohud.com/story/news/2015/01/26/armchair-meteorologists/22350937/

SO....WHATS GOING ON WITH THE STORM!? ITS RIGHT ON TRACK FOLKS! DILLON AND I, WHILE EXCITED AND NERVOUS, ARE CONFIDENT WITH THE FORECAST. WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A NEW SNOW MAP, AS WE FEEL THE ONE ALREADY POSTED WILL DO JUST FINE.

SO! The Storm actually began to form a BIT further South and West then anticipated, so the HEAVY precip MAY take a BIT longer to arrive!...BUT THIS IS GOOD! The Severly NEGATIVE TILT of this means It should NOT go further East then expected, and will stick around for a bit longer as well. Once the storm bombs out it will stall SE of Long island, again as expected.

HEAVIEST SNOWS STILL LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOLKS.

THE WHOLE THING SHOULD BE OUTTA HERE LATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.

BE BACK LATER!

******IMPORTANT SMALL UPDATE FOLKS*******

*****PLEASE READ
EVEN THOUGH THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS NOT TOMORROW DAYTIME, THE 1-3" FOR TOMORROW COULD EASILY BECOME 2-4" OR MORE AS THE EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO MUCH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS - SO TRAVELLING PEEPS BE CAREFUL. BE CAREFUL GETTING TO AND FROM SCHOOL!

FELLOW CLASSMATES, MAKE SURE YOU GOT RIDES TO AND FROM SCHOOL IF NOT TAKING THE BUS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON!

*******FIRST SNOW MAP CALL FOR STORM TOMORROW BASED OFF OF THE Euro, GFS, NAM, NAM 4KM WRF, UKMET, AND CANADIAN MODELS********* 3PM UPDATE

OK, I am going to Explain this map - as some things are hard to draw in!

Areas in red I think will generally get the most out of this storm, as the bulls eye's are here on most of the models. HOWEVER, WE WILL NOT KNOW THIS FOR SURE UNTIL IT HAPPENS AND WE CAN SEE THE BANDING BEING SET UP. Models have a tough time with banding. the STARS indicate chances for localized amounts upwards of 30" possible.

THE REASON, I do not extend the red all the way to the MA Coast and Nantucket is that I see a SLIGHT chance of some mixing as the low swings past, bringing temperatures aloft to 1-2°C...However, this is a very tough call...they may very well end up with more.

Areas in Orange, So Around Poughkeepsie to Hudson/Albany and then West through Northern NJ and PA, East to just West of Boston, I am pretty solid on 14-18" with Localized Higher amounts.

Areas in Purple, and I include Boston in this, but they very well might end up with higher amounts, 10-14" with higher elevation areas receiving more.

AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY, to the NW 6-10"...this is starting to get to the outer edges of the storm IN BLUE

North WEST and NoRTH OF THAT, Central NY to Northern VT/NH...Sorry buds, Likely 1-4, 3-6" or around there.

ANY QUESTIONS, JUST PM ME. FULL UPDATE THIS EVENING.
NOTHING ELSE CHANGING! 

******OKI DOKI HERE WE GO EVENING UPDATE FOR POSSIBLE MAJOR WINTER STORM AHEAD***************

THINGS MOVING QUICKLY FOLKS! QUICKLY!

A Low pressure system will move up the coast this evening (Already at Baltimore as we speak) and move NE offshore intensifying VERY RAPIDLY and dropping nearly 40 MILLIBARS IN THE PROCESS! It will then pass just to the East of Nantucket and continue into the gulf of Maine continuing to intensify.

NOW PROBLEMS: This storm is coming BETWEEN the shots of cold air we have been getting and therefore does not have fresh cold air to work with! This HAS been the case with many of the storms we have had this year! NOW, here is the good news! Because of how FAST this storm will intensify once it hits the coast it will ACTUALLY CREATE ITS OWN COLD AIR SO-TO-SPEAK, with Dynamic Cooling as we weather peeps call it. SO, While there may not be the coldest air at the surface, or even aloft, this storm does have the means to create some big snows!

PRECIPITATION TYPES: Areas on the IMMEDIATE COAST WILL experience a good bout of snow, but will likely change quickly over to a rain/sleet/mix tomorrow midday and maybe even plain rain with the possibility of heading back to all snow, but that will DEFINITELY cut down on the precip amounts.
INLAND AREAS closer to coast will experience a mostly ALL SNOW event with some sleet/ice/rain mixing in midday tomorrow, but it should switch back over to snow before heading out. INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM COAST, AN ALL SNOW SOLUTION HERE! 
COASTAL REGIONS AROUND BOSTON! YOU MAY BE IN TROUBLE! See by the time the system gets up to Boston, or off the shore of Boston, it will be INTENSIFYING MUCH SLOWER! SO, NOT AS MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING GOING ON! It will HAVE TO DEAL with whatever COLD AIR IS LEFT, for the most part!. You might be surprised with less snow, OR more???

The GRADIENT of snow on this storm will be steep ON BOTH SIDES! This is NOT an inland storm...SO ALL Y'ALL UP NORTH - SORRY ITS OUR TURN!!!

COULD THIS BE A TOTAL BUST? YES! AND EITHER WAY! IT could end up being 1-3" and RAIN, or 8+" and ALL SNOW!

BOTTOM LINE IS, THIS WILL BE A WET AND HEAVY SNOW REGARDLESS OF WHERE YOU ARE, WITH THE DEFINITE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ICE ON TOP, SO DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF YOU GET SOME CRUST ON TOP OF WET SNOW!

*********I HIGHLY RECOMMEND AGAINST DRIVING TOMORROW OR GOING PLACES IF NORTH OF NYC AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL REGIONS!*******

TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON MAP BELOW! 

TIMING - LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. DETAILS ON MAP!

SHORT UPDATE COMING BEFORE I GO TO BED, AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING!