**********8:00PM UPDATE SUNDAY************

Guys, this is an extremely tricky storm to forecast - so bear with us. We are sorry for the lack of updates this weekend, we were both out of town and without computers - hard to do updates without them! ANYWAY, we are back so lets get to the weather!

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This storm is NOT a big snowmaker for us, rather a much BIGGER Icemaker...We are ON that line as usual though, of the cold and more snow...So, 20-30 mile changes - EVEN LESS then that, COULD MEAN BIG changes for us.

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TIMING - Freezing rain/sleet will break out tonight if not before midnight by midnight, continue through the morning and change over to snow late morning/midday. Light Snow will continue through the afternoon, probably not too heavy. Icing will continue as well mixing a bit with snow through the evening. It will change back to all snow and continue through Monday night ending between 1-4am or a bit before...generally very very early hours of Tuesday.

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ACCUMULATIONS 

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BIGGEST HAZARD - ICE ICE ICE....THERE IS A MUCH MUCH GREATER CHANCE OF ICE WITH THIS SYSTEM THEN LAST, BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD. GROUND TEMPS HOWEVER WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING - WE ALL KNOW WHAT HAPPENS THEN - IT FREEZES ON CONTACT.

With Snow NOT changing over until LATER in the DAY MONDAY, and temperatures not going BELOW freezing until AFTER MIDDAY, ICING WILL BE A VERY BAD PROBLEM for the Morning commute, and EVEN the Afternoon/EVENING commute which will be EVEN MORE dangerous as it changes back to a wet, sleety, icy snow.

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Temperatures tomorrow will be JUST around or UNDER 32°, even into Upper 20's if we are lucky. North of I84, you will be mostly snow, even north of I287. Temperatures will begin to drop after lunchtime and continue dropping to low to mid 20's by nightfall - ANY Wet/melted ground will freeze up..on top of any ice that formed.

AGAIN, THIS IS NOT A BIG SNOWMAKER FOR US...MUCH MORE OF AN ICE MAKER - WHICH IS MUCH WORSE.

**********FRIDAY NIGHT DISCUSSION - WINTER STORM AHEAD FOR SUPERBOWL FOLKS!**********

*******FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A DECENT WINTER STORM, ALL SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT******
HOW MUCH SNOW? WELL HERE IS THE TRICKY PART! IT IS GOING TO BE BRUTALLY COLD FOLKS, AND THIS STORM IS GONNA BE EVEN COLDER. DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF 15-20:1 RATIOS OF SNOW ARE PRESENT. FOR NOW, I WILL STICK WITH 10:1 RATIOS - BUT AN AVERAGE OF THE MODELS WOULD BE 
8-12", A MAX WOULD BE 12-15" AND A MINIMUM 4".

HINTING - WITH HIGHER RATIOS WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
PROBABLE 12-15", MAX 18-24"(BUT I THINK THATS A FAR STRETCH).

A storm will move across the Midwest tonight into tomorrow and form a slightly stronger low as it comes out of the Ohio Valley. FOLKS, TRACK AS ALWAYS IS VERY IMPORTANT! A MOVE SOUTH 50 MILES WOULD CUT OUR SNOW IN HALF, A MOVE NORTH 50 MILES COULD MIX SOME YOU-KNOW WHAT IN!!!! 

WE ALL KNOW HOW THE MODELS ARE...SINCE THE LAST STORM.

Pictures are worth a thousand words so PLEASE LOOK AT THEM FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE STORM!

TIMING, AS OF NOW, WOULD BE MID SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO RIGHT AS SUPERBOWL PARTIES ENDING!

OTHER NEWS: BRUTAL, I MEAN BRUTAL COLD COMING TONIGHT WITH BRUTAL WINDCHILLS FAR INTO THE NEGATIVES. PLEASE BE CAREFUL FOLKS!

****************FORECAST*******************

TONIGHT - COLD COLD FRIGID. Lows in the NEGATIVES, -15 to -20° BELOW with the WINDCHILLS, Otherwise Around 1° PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AS YOU GET NORTH AND WEST. WINDS 20-30MPH GUSTS TO 35MPH

TOMORROW - COLD! Highs in the LOW 20's, MORNING HIGHS IN THE NEGATIVES! ENJOY THE SUNNINESS - WONT LAST FOR LONG!

SUNDAY - Increasing Clouds as the day goes on Highs in the LOW 30's around 30-32° Getting COLDER as the day goes on probably, SNOW arriving LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO...MAYBE EARLIER FINAL DETAILS TOMORROW.

MONDAY - Snow Continuing throughout the day is probable. Highs in the low 20's probable.

FIRST CALL MAPS BELOW FOR SUNDAY STORM

TEMPERATURE MAPS AS WELL - LOOK AT THAT COLD!!!!!!

WINDY TOO FOLKS!

************EXTREMELY IMPORTANT UPDATE FOLKS, PLEASE READ*************

EXACTLY WHAT I SAID YESTERDAY WOULD HAPPEN, IS HAPPENING. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE RAIN FALLING, THE GROUND IS COLD ENOUGH THAT IT IS FREEZING ON CONTACT.

I JUST SPENT THE LAST HOUR GETTING MY MOMS CAR UP OUR DRIVEWAY BECAUSE OF THE 1/8" THICK LAYER OF ICE THAT IS ON IT.

THE ROADS ARE SLIPPERY, DILLON REPORTS TO ME THAT THE TACONIC IS CLOSED.

DO NOT TRAVEL, JUST DONT. NOT WORTH IT.

FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY GO UP LATER, BUT IF NOT...JUST KNOW WE HAVE SOME HEAVY HEAVY RAIN HEADING OUR WAY AND IT WILL NOT BE SOAKED UP ON FROZEN GROUND - IT WILL FLOOD.

TRUST DILLON AND I ON THIS. PLEASE.

Latest radar ----> http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast.php