************EXTREMELY IMPORTANT UPDATE FOLKS, PLEASE READ*************

EXACTLY WHAT I SAID YESTERDAY WOULD HAPPEN, IS HAPPENING. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE RAIN FALLING, THE GROUND IS COLD ENOUGH THAT IT IS FREEZING ON CONTACT.

I JUST SPENT THE LAST HOUR GETTING MY MOMS CAR UP OUR DRIVEWAY BECAUSE OF THE 1/8" THICK LAYER OF ICE THAT IS ON IT.

THE ROADS ARE SLIPPERY, DILLON REPORTS TO ME THAT THE TACONIC IS CLOSED.

DO NOT TRAVEL, JUST DONT. NOT WORTH IT.

FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY GO UP LATER, BUT IF NOT...JUST KNOW WE HAVE SOME HEAVY HEAVY RAIN HEADING OUR WAY AND IT WILL NOT BE SOAKED UP ON FROZEN GROUND - IT WILL FLOOD.

TRUST DILLON AND I ON THIS. PLEASE.

Latest radar ----> http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast.php

********MONDAY EVENING DISCUSSION***********

FEW POINTS OF DISCUSSION

-The Possibility of a potentially major storm is VERY MUCH in the realm of possibility for Saturday night into Sunday night (20-21st). SO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSTS COMING FROM HERE, WE WILL HAVE THE LATEST UPDATES.

- AO/NAO/EPO/WPO/PNA ALL TANK AROUND 24TH-26TH SO IT SEEMS, WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? WELL ESSENTIALLY THAT WINTER WILL REALLY BE LOCKING IN - COLD, STORMINESS...MUCH LIKE THE PATTERN BACK IN NOVEMBER, BUT MORE SUSTAINED AND STORMY.

- ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM, YES, Right on the heels of the possible Saturday-Sunday Storm we get ANOTHER for Christmas...Details still vague but the possibility, again DEFINITELY there!!!

- THE BLOCKING we have been waiting for (or at least I have) will begin to set up between and after the Sunday and Christmas storms, coinciding with the Oscillations/Teleconnections tanking! 


***********************FORECASTIC FORECAST**********************

TONIGHT - Highs in the HIGH 20's, clear

TUESDAY - Partly Cloudy skies over to all cloudy w/ showers developing in the evening and changing over to all rain in the night, MAYBE a bit of freezing sleet/ice for a bit but I am doubtful. Highs in the mid 40's, lows in the HIGH 30's. Areas in Northern NY, Southern NE...maybe even Boston could see some snow showers/light snow on the backside.

WEDNESDAY - BIG WARMUP! HIGHS NEAR 50*, Partly Cloudy

THURSDAY - Highs back down to high 30's, sunny.

FRIDAY - Highs low to mid 30's, sunny.

WILL GET TO WEEKEND LATER!

PICTURES

- EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE CONTROL RUN OF TOTAL SNOWFALL, IN NO MEANS A FORECAST JUST A GUIDE TO THOSE WHO COULD SEE SNOW. ENSEMBLE MEAN RUN ALSO INCLUDED

- EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MSLP MAP FOR THE POSSIBLE SUNDAY STORM.

Tuesday Evening Update and Discussion on Storm

TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE/DISCUSSION


NOW, ONTO THE STORM - In terms of the models, THERE WERE ALOT of problems with this storm, and its complexity and size...the MAIN issue was the warm air. None of the models saw it coming (Except the NAM) and what "it" was, was the fact that the storm was able to bring that warm air ALL the way north past Albany, West to Ithaca, and North to Portland, ME...This created a much bigger rain/ice event then expected, AND cut down those snow totals for many areas. Storm ALSO shifted EAST, causing the heaviest precip to move more OVER US, instead of Interior NY, NJ, and west of us.

SO, Otherwise, however, the system behaved as expected - NOW, WE STILL HAVE 2/3 MORE DAYS OF IT....ON AND OFF.
Now, I am happy that I can say I pointed this out a week ago when the storm initially came onto the models, and Dillon and I were in agreement with this, even as the system came through today - The REAL cold air (High Pressure System) would come on the STORMS heels, and behind it - not interact with it enough to cause a real SNOW event down here.

NOW, this IS HAPPENING! the Center of low pressure will use its self to form another low and swing back around in basically a circle over NY and New England - SO, NEW PRECIP FORMS, we get that moisture from the system interacting with that COLD air coming south, and PRESTO! BOO YA! Rain and Snow arrives tomorrow after a break in the precip today. I DO NOT EXPECT MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS, MAX 1-3" IN HIGH ELEVATION AREAS, BUT DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND!

NAM 18z 850hPa showing temps invading (Blue/grey is COLDEST)

SO, FORECAST

TONIGHT - A LULL IN PRECIP, CLOUDY SKIES w/ some showers AS THE ORIGINAL LOWS SPINS UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. Some Rain/Snow/Sleet may still stick around in the Taconic Hills, Catskills, Putnam County up there South of Albany. Lows in the mid 30's...Winds 10-20mph

WEDNESDAY - Rain and Snow showers throughout the day, low to mid 30's. Winds back up there 20-30mph FOLKS up north of OSSINING WILL HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE AT THE SNOW ACCUMULATING 1-3" OR MORE.

FLOOD WARNING STILL UP AS RAIN MAY GET HEAVY TOMORROW!

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - CLOUDY, SOME RAIN/SNOW LINGERING CLEARING OUT LATE. Lows near 30*....

THURSDAY - Some lingering snowshowers in the morning possible, then cloudy as the storm moves out Highs in the mid 30's

FRIDAY - Partly sunny, storm will begin to move out finally Highs in the mid 30's.


HAVE A NICE NIGHT FOLKS!!!

NAM MSLP+PRECIP, showing reforming of the Low.

Heavy rain moving North! - Morning Update

*********HEAVY RAIN, SOME ICEY RAIN MOVING NORTH, SNOW ON THE HORIZON*******

As the storm spins north it will tighten and intensify, and then stall over us the afternoon/evening. Expect heavy rain to continue, and some icey rain as well. Do not be surprised if some wet flakes fall as well! 

Getting more confident on a spread of snow wednesday night into thursday morning as the system loops around and the center of pressure reforms. MORE ON THIS LATER!

Folks to the North, in Putnam, up the taconic and into the catskills, DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT IS SNOWING, and POSSIBLY accumulating - this is a very elevation dependent storm!

Have a great day folks!