Sunday Afternoon Update - Here come the DELAYED rains!

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Updated: 1945z/15:45/3:45PM

----------------------------------FORECAST---------------------------------- 

REST OF TODAY - Rain showers and localized heavy downpours/t-storms as well as possible HAIL and high wind gusts will move across the area in response to the cold front trudging its way through well to the west of us. Rains will become more organized as evening progresses. Temps maxing out around 80° WATCH FOR FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TONIGHT - Cold front passes in the late evening probably between 7-9pm, watch those temps plummet into high 50's low 60's across much of the area north of NYC northern suburbs.

MONDAY - Rain for much of the day heavy at times, watch for localized flooding as 1-3" across the area of rain can be expected with this system from late tonight through Tuesday night.. Highs Monday in the HIGH 50's maybe reaching 60-62°

TUESDAY - Watch for Thunderstorms and rain in the morning into the afternoon possible as the system exits to the east, then maybe some partial clearing and the sun should peak out in the late afternoon - need some things to come into play for this to happen so lets wait and seer], highs in the low to mid 60's.

WEDNESDAY - High pressure builds into the area behind the storm system and drier cooler air comes in, Highs in the mid to high 60's maybe up to 70°, clouds in and out and watch for some wind.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

OKI Doki very potent system we got moving into place, lets get into the rains - for the next 2-3 days!!!

Cold front will continue to move southward, right now it is just about 35-50 miles north of us, anyway it will continue southward through the afternoon and will move to the south of us by late tonight - now, if it were just this cold front then the rains would be short and sweet - BUT, big BUT, we have waves of low pressure that will form along the frontal boundary and move NE from the Jersey/Baltimore region through our region and into New England lasting through, AT THE VERY LEAST late late Monday night - but likely into Tuesday afternoon if things shape up well. WE NEED this rain - THAT being said, the ground is dry, and flooding will occur so watch out, especially getting into the Mid Hudson valley and CT/MA border down into Jersey where 2-4" of rain could fall over the next 2-3 days. NYC and Northern Suburbs, including LI and along the Jersey coastline, CT coastline and southern N.E a bit less rain, but still 1-3" with localized higher amounts.

For the immediate afternoon, instability is increasing as we speak as the cold front enhances the lift in front (south) of it, mL Cape is 1200-1800 should increase to 2200-2500 j/kg before decreasing as the Front moves to the south of us...lots of precipitable in the air in excess of 2" across the area will feed the system, and with low winds out of the lower level jet these storms will sit...sit and sit.

Low pressure moves along the front getting into Monday and a shortwave NRG moving across will increase that lift, so watch ot for more heavy rain although not as many t-storms, NE flow develops as High pressure moves into the region Monday night into Tuesday and cooler air/drier - in the mid 60's to low 70's comes into place for much of the week.

SO...this is all good rain to help our dry spell, BUT be careful for any flooding! Models continue to show more rain for the end of the week getting into next week as well, so we will keep an eye on that! Graphics below to show some of the things talked about here smile emoticon have a nice rest of Sunday!

Friday Evening Weather Update - Weekend Outlook Rain in Sight!
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Updated: 0030z/8:30PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

REST OF TODAY - Temperatures will begin to cool down into the high 60's for the night, mostly clear....BUT

TONIGHT - Clouds rolling in tonight as High pressure moves offshore and moist humid and warmer air moves in...fog possible as the the dry cooler air meets the warmer humid air...lows in the high 60's to maybe even low 70's.

SATURDAY - Partly Sunny/Cloudy with a good chance of t-storms rolling in the afternoon as a SSW flow sets up and instability ramps up a bit...watch out for those smile emoticon Temps in the low 80's, humid.

SUNDAY - Cold front approaches and as NRG comes along with it, ridging to the south of us should slow it down, ridging behind it will bring cooler air and give us a nice wet day LIKELY, and much needed rain. Cooler highs in the low to mid 70's.

MONDAY - Chance of showers in the morning depending on the system setup for Sunday, otherwise cloudy to partly sunny highs COLD just about in the 58-62° range, drier as the day goes on.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

Can we FINALLY get some good rains? Looks like our best bet is gonna be Sunday for this system, if it comes along smile emoticon

Cold front sweeps in from the NW coming down across the great lakes with High pressure behind it bringing down colder Canadian air Saturday night into Sunday, mostly late morning through the afternoon for all east of the Hudson River, although some places well to the north might get it before NYC area does, NOW, here is the question, NRG comes in with this...do we develop a nice slow moving soaker as Ridging on both sides slows us down? Or do we weaken the Atlantic Ridging more and this Cold front just sweeps through in and out...all this is gonna decide how much rain we do get. Right now looking at the data I am confident in saying we will see the front stall and the shortwave NRG slides along it....but for how long.,...? Greatest chance for heavy rain Sunday evening through early Monday morning. The Euro likes the more rain idea as it keeps it a more neutral tilted trough and allows more LP/shortwaves to "dance" across it maybe even into late Monday.

After our system, High pressure behind it builds into the area, drier and much cooler conditions appear for much of next week.

El Nino Update! Ok, lets talk SST's: SST's across the Eastern Pacific, namely in the Nino 12 area are exploding (haha get it? explodding?...OK not literally :P) and the thermocline is getting deeper...that being said I am not seeing a "SUPER NINO" off the charts scenario...even though the models have many ensembles going +3.5°C Anomaly, which is absurdly high, the mean, and averages are sticking around +2 to 2.2°C anomaly. For comparison, the Super El Nino of 97/98 got to between +4-5°C. The warmest waters are in the east right now moving west, slowly, but definitely moving, especially deepening the expansion to 50-75m below sea level, this will continue...the question is how much. I am liking the JAMSTEC model which is usually pretty good at these ENSO events, as the modellers at JAMSTEC focus more on the oceans then others do...so, they are giving us an El Nino peaking Late August to September...possibly later, to +1.5 to +1.8°C before backing off to a Modoki signature like we saw last winter (hence why my idea for the winter is as it is)...Anyway....lets see how this turns out and more updates on it coming soon!

Cya guys!

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Thunderstorms are here!

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Updated:2247z/6:47PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

REST OF TODAY - Currently Have some decent T-Storms making there way across the river, right now looking at a particular cell, you are probably already hearing the thunder it is about 20 miles away moving 49MPH towards us, it has decent strength should reach us in the next 10 minutes at least. Watch for some downpours and lightning/thunder, light rain on and off for the rest of the evening into the night. Temps currently at 74° winds out of the West at 3MPH, barometer is dropping. WATCH OUT, ABOUT 3 MORE CELLS MAKING THERE WAY OVER

TONIGHT - Storms Clearing out well before midnight, temps dropping into mid 60's, winds still a bit gusty. Had up to 19mph gusts out of the SE today.

THURSDAY - Possibility of a t-storm and some rain showers, otherwise like today highs in the low 80's, but humid with the South Easterly flow.

FRIDAY - Less humid as the flow becomes less southerly, highs near 80°, sunny with wispy clouds in and out.

****SEE THE RADAR FOR THE LATEST ON THE STORMS LOCATIONS****

Blog Update - Come take a look!

Hey guys! No forecast tonight, just a heads up though of some changes to the blog site:

- Added Regional Weather Radar, look on the right sidebar, it is the first thing there. **NOTE - Trying to find a more interactive module

- Added the WeatherBug Widget, this displays some of the data that comes from the WeatherBug Weather Recording Station at the Irvington Public School. Please note, the forecast that is on that widget is WeatherBug's forecast and NOT ours [WeatherInTheHud with Remy & Dillon]

- Added WeatherBug Station Data Link, this is the link to the Student page for the WeatherBug Weather Station. **If it asks for Login information, enter the Zipcode: 10533 and choose Irvington Middle School, then 8th grade.** Once on the site, you can navigate through the sidebar. There are many activities, tools, and fun information as well as educational material. TO GET to the raw data from our station at the High School click the <TOOLS> tab on the sidebar, then the first link <Weather Observations> this will open a new page with the station data, there are some tabs you can use to see different items, and archived data 180 days past, as well as graphing capabilities

Dillon and I hope everybody enjoys these new features! We will keep trying to make the blog better and add new features, so please, if you have any suggestions on how we can make it better please let us know by either commenting on this post, or emailing me at remymerm@aol.com or Dillon at dillonpalmieri@yahoo.com

Thanks!

Sunday Afternoon Weather Update - HAPPY Memorial Day!

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Updated: 2030z/16:30/04:30PM

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REST OF TODAY - Temps in the mid 80's will begin to cool down, mostly sunny with some clouds, southerly flow will continue to bring humid(er) air into the region behind the warm front to our north.

TONIGHT - Lows in the low 60's to high 50's well to the north of NYC. Some clouds, mostly clear though.

TUESDAY - A bit warmer, highs in the mid to high 80's, small chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon, more so if to the north in Putnam Valley/Central Hudson Valley..otherwise, partly cloudy, mostly sunny, humid.

WEDNESDAY - Chance of t-storms and rain in the late afternoon/evening, otherwise highs around 80-83°, partly cloudy/partly sunny.

THURSDAY - Another chance of t-storms in the afternoon and light rain throughout the day as well, otherwise a tad cooler highs around 80°. Humid.

-----------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION---------------------------

First, a very very happy Memorial Day to all, and a HUGE, MONUMENTAL thanks to all the service members who have dedicated themselves and their families to protecting our country.

Next, HUGE amounts of rain pummeling the southern Plains and Texas, places in Oklahoma and Texas have received over 2 feet of rain in the last couple of weeks! Massive flooding is going on as well from the rain, lets wish them all a speedy recovery!

Some drought relief coming for us, somewhat. See, we will get rain, but the ground is so dry, and warm that evo-transpiration evaporation will exceed precipitation, and so while we may not get deeper into drought, we will not get better...that being said, we are not in THAT bad of a situation.

The Bermuda high is strengthening, and so will promote the SW flow to continue over the next couple of days bringing in warm and humid air into the region through the end of the week, that being said coastal areas will stay in the mid to upper 70's as those sea breezes kick up. You will notice it a bit windier this week...anyway. Ridging will continue to retrograde and expand westward over the week, the Bermuda High will stay in place and warm air will continue to pump pump its way in. Cold front drops in through the weekend, probably late Saturday night into Sunday and this could bring some nice rain....timing still iffy so lets wait on this, but definitely more organized then the thunderstorms this week.

Summer forecast will not be out until Mid June, Dillon and I have finals, and research work to do, and we feel it is best to wait until Summer OFFICIALLY starts..also a lot of things changing right now that could impact the summer, so lets wait and see.

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Lets keep the cool

wink emoticon
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Updated: 0045z/20:47/08:47PM

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TONIGHT - Chance of a sprinkle or two, otherwise partly cloudy/clear lows COOL in the mid 40's to high 30's possible in NW NY and interior N.E.

THURSDAY - Gonna be a close call as a system develops in the Mid Atlantic and moves North, it might be raining in NYC but not here...chance of some showers/light rain especially in the afternoon into evening...overall though maybe 30-40% chance though. Highs a bit cooler then today as HP just to the north of us builds slightly around 60-62°.

FRIDAY - NO SCHOOL! (At least for Irvington kids wink emoticon ) Highs around 70°, chilly morning though., Clouds in and out as Low Pressure builds to the NE and E, otherwise sunny.

SATURDAY - Highs in the high 60's, breezy, less clouds then Friday but in and out.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

OK Whats going on! ALOT believe it or not....affecting us or not physically it affects the weather for us anyway. Shortwave will continue to cross the Ohio Valley tonight into tomorrow and allow Low pressure to form in the Mid Atlantic coasts...nice May soaker for all those south of NYC essentially in the Mid Atlantic especially Baltimore. Clouds will role in north of NYC but not expecting much rain, maybe a few sprinkles in NYC and on LI.....Bigger chance of rain in the evening, still only 30-40% as shortwave digs and low deepens off the coast.

Now, Update on spring! The Sun is making its way slowly north as we gear up for our Summer Solstice...currently the sun is at just under 14°N Latitude, about 62° Altitude in our sky (it will get to about 72°), a little over halfway to its summer spot at 23.5°N for June 21st and our longest day, nearly 14 hours of sunlight. After that it is all downhill from there as the sun makes it back to the equator for the fall equinox and then 23.5°S for the winter solstice and our shortest day of the year, only 9 ish hours of sunlight.

As I said before, temps will continue going back and forth but CFSV2 liking june staying just about at or just above average temps, then a cool down in July... However this is a volatile situation as the El Nino on the models looking like either super duper strong or not so strong with every run...lets see what they finally agree on and what the conditions show. We have seen a steady expansion of the warm pools, but lets wait and see....

CFSV2 showing strong El Nino all the way through next year, just saying, but not buying that for now. Any rumors about Pacific crash...ehhh not so much from what I see. Warm pools will diminish a bit but I don't think it would qualify as a "crash" in anyway. Again El Nino changing and all this will have an impact so...lets wait and see.

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Like the cool weather??

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Updated: 2335z/19:35/07:35PM

---------------------------------FORECAST-----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Cold WATCH for frost, lows in the low to mid 40's, winds dying down though will make it not as bad. Clear.

THURSDAY - Highs in the high 60's, a tad warmer then today. Nice day, clear, not as much wind at all.

FRIDAY - A tad warmer, highs around 70°, watch out for some clouds...not too bad though. Nice day. Clouds getting thicker at night as a very weak frontal system moves through.

SATURDAY - Highs in the mid 70's, cloudy with showers in the morning and maybe a t-storm or two during the morning into the afternoon...not much though.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Now was that temperature contrast or not! We reached 83.6° Yesterday, and only 64.3° today - that is over a 19° difference in less then 24 hours!

Now, lets enjoy it...cooler weather, closer to average will be sticking around for the next couple days and into the weekend. High pressure will continue to build to the west of us tonight and move over us tomorrow into Friday. Watch for those clouds forming Friday afternoon as a weak area of low pressure/frontal system moves closer into the night. Showers and maybe a t-storm into Saturday afternoon cannot be ruled out. Models are sticking with the precipitation staying to the north of us as the warm front moves through..we shall see. GFS does want to build things up a bit, showing CAPE 1500-2200 during the day Saturday and a good amount of instability for the afternoon into evening in terms of t-storms, but lets see what the ridging does to try to stop that. Likely, if a cell does form FRIDAY NIGHT, it will be mostly quick bursts of heavy rainfall as storm motion very slow and now that much convection going on. Saturday the storms look a bit quicker and uplift/dynamics a bit better to produce less rain but maybe more thunder if something develops.

Highs pressure will again build Sunday into Monday as High Pressure builds from the Canadian Maritimes, a bit more humid air but cooler as well. Next system likely Tuesday-Wednesday and this could be a nice bout of rain as a cold front moves through and an organized low tries to develop to the south of us and come north....lets wait and see what happens with this.

We need rain, right now we have had no measurable rain for this month, and in April ended with 71% of normal Precipitation. The Palmer Drought Index for our region is at -3 anomaly, and precipitation is 4" below normal for the period March through May 8th.

Have a great night guys!

Monday Evening Weather Update - Hot then cool

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Updated: 0045z/20:45/08:45PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Small chance of a shower or two, but doubtful, lows in the mid 60's - WARM night - don't get use to it~!

TUESDAY - Highs in the mid 80's, warm and humid frown emoticon Chance of some showers maybe a t-storm or two as a cold front passes in the evening.

WEDNESDAY - High pressure builds from the west, while Low pressure forms to the NE, this combo could make for some high winds. Much cooler highs around 60°, partly cloudy.

THURSDAY - Highs in the mid 60's, High pressure moves east throughout the day, sunny.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------- 

Low pressure from weakening tropical storm Ana will move to the SE of us tonight and into tomorrow night and low pressure approaching the Quebec region. A cold front will move through the area tomorrow evening attached to the Quebec low bringing a chance of showers/t-storms.

High pressure will begin to build behind the front Tuesday night into Thursday, watch out for gusty winds Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday as that HP and LP contrast, remember generally 4 knots per 4mB change in pressure, so on a weather map, look at those isobars center and you can "guess" the wind speeds...right now probably 25-30mph gusts are probable cool air guys! Highs in the mid 60's to 70° will dominate for the rest of the week after Wednesday.

Possible system for the weekend although looking like showers/light rain for now as an organized system is not developing on the models.

Rest of the month, AO and NAO stay positive while the PNA goes + and EPO -. MJO sticking in the circle of death, but close to 7/8 phases, spelling out a slightly cooler solution for us...but for the most part should stay near to slightly above average for the rest of the month, June still looking rather cool/right at average in terms of temps.

Have a great night guys!

Picture of Tropical Storm Ana before landfall.

Thursday Evening Weather Update

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Updated: 0010z/20:10/8:10PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Clear, lows getting to mid 50's by daybreak.

FRIDAY - Highs into the mid 70's maybe reaching 80° especially around NYC, Newark.

SATURDAY - Highs in mid 70's, getting cloudy during the night as moisture from our spinning potential STC reaches our area.

SUNDAY - MOTHERS DAY! Fog in and out throughout the day, probably will not burn out of it much, if we do it will be in afternoon, definitely out by Monday morning. Highs near 80°.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

ALLL EYES are on the tropics! Well not really "tropics" but the wacky system developing down north of the Bahamas, Cutoff low will continue spinning and probably develop into a Sub Tropical Cyclone at the very least, making landfall just south of the Outer Banks...Biggest threats at this point is heavy rainfall, but winds 35-40kts sustained gusts up to 50kts could occur, if it strengthens. We shall see over the next 24-48 hours if it develops...need those t-storms and convection to fully wrap the center of low pressure. See picture below from NNVL.

Upper level Ridge will move in from the west tomorrow and a somewhat easterly flow will allow for some sea breezes to develop and fog to roll in Friday night for a bit, but not much as dew points will be low and SST cold...mainly on the coast.

Getting into the longer period, Ridging will stick around for much of the next week, ALTHOUGH, looking like moisture and a tad bit of NRG from the spinning low to the south could reach us giving us fog and maybe some rain showers Saturday night into Sunday. nothing big, but the fog could stick around as a SE/S flow develops from the system to the south of us as it looks like now. Next system could come through Monday into Tuesday, we will wait and see how that works out...might miss us by a tad, but we shall see.

We will remain dry for much of the rest of the month - although hints at a bigger storm for end of the 10 day period are happening.

MJO still looking like it wants to go to the cooler phases 7/8 in the next 10 days or so, certainly after next week getting into the end of May and into the beginning of June. Also seeing at a return of warmth come June, then a cool down towards the end of June to beginning of July, warming back up again then cool....This however will change as the ENSO situation develops. Just some early thoughts.

Have a great night!

Sunday Afternoon Weather Update - Real nice week coming up!

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Updated: 1940z/15:40/3:40PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

REST OF TODAY - Temps in mid to high 70's will cool to low 50's by nighttime.

TONIGHT - Lows in low 50's, mostly clear.

MONDAY - Really nice weather! A southwest flow, abundant sunshine will give us temps right around 80°!

TUESDAY - A cold front dropping down from the lakes will bring a chance of showers and some light rain in the afternoon into evening. Otherwise partly sunny, highs in mid 70's, we will see if we get any thunderstorms out of this...could get enough instability for them.

WEDNESDAY - Maybe a few lingering showers in the morning as a stationary front develops and then moves to the south, otherwise cloudy turning partly sunny, highs in low to mid 70's.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

Unseasonably warm temperatures will move into the area for most of this week and probably for the next 10 days or so as the jet moves north, and a Southerly flow develops for the most part. In addition to this, we can observe the MJO being in phase 7 more or less right now which is warm for our region, we do however observe this going into phase 8 possibly in the next 10-15 days which would put us on the cooler side come mid may.

Getting into the week, cold front coming through Tuesday will bring chance of showers into wednesday morning, then ridging builds to the west, it will move east throughout the week and off the mid Atlantic by next weekend. Should stay dry for the week after Wednesday as we get continuous cool air (does not mean it will be cold) descending under the High. Getting into next weekend we will have a warm front approaching and possible soaker, but still to far out to tell any details.

Our first Possible Tropical disturbance of the season could develop in the Bahamas mid week and then move along the SE coast (FL/Carolina's) giving some heavy rain and gusty winds - likely nothing to bad at this point.

As we said in our initial spring forecast released a couple weeks back, we will begin to see above average (ish) temperatures followed by a slight cool-down into Mid may and then another warm-up back to average or above average temps. Gotta credit Dillon on this one as he spotted this warm-up early on.

Have a great rest of the weekend!

Wednesday Evening Weather Update = Spring is here

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Updated:2350z/19:50/7:50pm

---------------------------------FORECAST-----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Lows in the mid 40's, clear for the most part.

THURSDAY - Sun in the morning will transition to clouds towards the afternoon/evening as a coastal storm develops well to the south of us. Highs in the low 60's.

FRIDAY - What was suppose to be a nor'easter hitting us is now an ocean storm that will head out to sea, that being said we could see a few showers in the afternoon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy maybe some sun and highs near 60°.

SATURDAY - Partly sunny and we get back into the low to mid 60's, sunny for the most part as High pressure builds over the area.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

Liked the warmth today eh???? Well...lets get back to slightly cooler temps and then back to much warmer temps...such is spring!

Tomorrow will be slightly cooler as we get an east flow off the ocean, as we all know ocean breezes during the day will bring cooler temps - its why we love the beach! Quickie little "lesson" in basics of sea breezes: During the day the air warms very quickly compared to the water (takes a lot more energy to heat water then land) and this warm air rises and creates lower pressure over the land then water. Cool air over the water sinks, and this is our High pressure...now of course this can be altered if there is another system to change it, but in general, because of the pressure gradient between land and water, we get wind. During the night this usually reverses....OK, Now tomorrow will be a bit more of a "sea" breeze, easterly flow will cool things down a bit.

NRG will dive south from the lakes (short wave) thursday night to help our Nor'Easter (misser) to form and so we cannot rule out a slight slight chance of showers in the evening-nighttime...but I doubt it.

Overall the upper trough that has been affecting our area will begin to retrograde this weekend, but during this time we cannot rule out some showers friday night as some "spokes" of nrg drop down and out. High pressure will begin to build over the area to our east and ridging to the west, temps warm up...SW flow in the beginning of the week as the Jet moves north will bring some warm warm temps to the start of the week...high 70's and likely 80° to low 80's maybe, upper air pattern all over the place right now and cold front looks to come through around same time might mess our temps up a bit...we shall see! Signs shifting to a nice and warm may, not too warm but not too cold, and Florida will get a nice break into cooler temps smile emoticon

Have a great night!

Monday Evening Weather Update - Springy weather on the way?

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Updated: 2300z/19:00/7PM 

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Chance of some scattered showers, we can see some showers dropping down the Hudson valley right now....nothing to much though. Lows in mid to upper 40's.

TUESDAY - Some clouds, some sun, overall not a bad day highs near 60° with a nice breeze.

WEDNESDAY - Bit warmer highs in mid 60's, maybe we will reach 70°, slight wind from the SE might cool things down a tad but doubtful.

THURSDAY - Nice, highs in the mid 60's, partly cloudy becoming cloudier later as a storm approaches - still iffy if this storm affects us.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

Next few days will be good as our cutoff low finally starts moving out and ridging develops! HOWEVER, we still are under the influence of the massive omega blocking going on to the north of us, and so cooler then average temps will stick around until it begins to leave.

Wednesday a weak low will move through the area, but should not cause much of a problem as there will be very little moisture to deal with. Downsloping will make it feel a bit warmer, HOWEVER still looking at temps in mid 60's.

Big question of the week is whether or not the pending classic Miller "A" System comes up the coast and effects us. Closed low dives into the SE and helps surface low form in the NE gulf moving towards the Carolina's and Cape Hattaras. HERE IS THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION: Does High pressure building the NE region become strong enough to keep the storm away from us? Or does it not and does the jet capture the NRG and send it up our way? GFS has it way closer, Euro catching the NRG a tad late for us and right out to sea. At this point it would be a few showers for us, but we must watch this carefully!

Have a nice evening guys!

Saturday Evening Weather Update - And so the clouds stick!

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Updated: 2230z/18:30/6:30pm
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SPECIAL NOTE: Thoughts and prayers go out to all those affected by the Nepal Earthquake which stuck last night (for us, morning for them) and killed hundreds across 4 countries and setting off avalanches on Mt. Everest. 
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----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Lows in low 40's watch for frost. Expect some clouds and then clearing as a storm passes to our south, but otherwise clear.

 

SUNDAY - Some clouds in the afternoon, otherwise pleasant with a stiff breeze, a tad warming in the high 50's into low 60's, again a chilly start to the day.

MONDAY - As two lows spin off in the Gulf of Main and Atlantic, some spotty showers and maybe some gusty winds should come in the evening, but not much. otherwise, partly cloudy through the day highs in mid 50's.

TUESDAY - Ridging (High pressure) builds, dry weather with some wind and highs in low to mid 60's, sunny.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

Blocking will continue to dominate over the area and to our north getting into midweek, and our nice pesty cutoff low that has been sticking around for 5 days will start to move out Tuesday.

In association with a couple of upper lows spinning out in the Atlantic and Gulf of Main, and as a result of a "spoke" of NRG rotating through the area Monday evening, some spotty showers and maybe a few flakes up in the hills and to the north of the city will be possible.

High pressure will build over the area mid week and ridging to our NW allowing for some nicer and slightly warmer weather, highs into low 60's, but still below average.

Now, we still have a slight chance for a classic "Miller A" storm late week into the weekend, but I gotta tell you chances are it stays to the south of us and shoots out to sea. Models still a bit all over the place, the Euro is much slower and brings it further up the coast then the GFS with phasing and a pretty tight setup, but then shoots it our to sea off the Carolina's, likely because of Ridging and weak HP over us and the way the Jet is configured right now. Very tricky pattern right now, still room for adjustments.

Have a great weekend!

Tuesday Evening Weather Update - Messy to [wintry?] weather coming?

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Updated: 2140z/17:40/5:40PM

-----------------------------------FORECAST---------------------------------

TONIGHT - Clear as weak high pressure builds over the area, lows in the mid 40's.

WEDNESDAY - Good start to the day with clouds rolling in the afternoon with light rain/rain showers and maybe some t-storms and possibly some hail if those upper air temps can stay cold enough throughout the afternoon/evening. Highs around 60° and lows cold in high 30's as a cold front passes in the evening.

THURSDAY - Cold for this time, highs in low 50's, windy and sunny with some passing clouds, chance of some snow flakes in the evening.... ;)

Friday - Highs around 50°, breezy, partly cloudy, chance of some snow flakes in the evening or early morning?.....

---------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-----------------------

Tomorrow! More thunderstorms and rain coming! not nearly as much as yesterday, but still yucky weather. A strong upper jet and an upper low pinwheeling across the great lakes will converge with a cold front moving NE from the plains and give a nice band of showers and t-storms as a stronger surface low develops to the north of us, but this development will occur for the main part once to the east of us...SO, for now scattered showers and some t-storm mainly between 2pm and 6pm (t storms closer to evening). Some hail could mix in as high lapse rates and cold temps aloft will aid in that process. Do not discount some gusty winds as well.

Interesting setup for the next 10 days at least in terms of our sensible weather! Blocking should begin to develop over Greenland over the next few days and into next week and a pretty darn stubborn cutoff low will sit just north of us for the weekend and into early next week allowing cold air to filter in, After Wednesday and pretty much for the next 10 days we will be experiencing below average temperatures anywhere from -5° to -10° departure from average temps...so 50's into low 60's. This is also in response with the NAO/AO going negative with the PNA and positive EPO/WPO.

Chances for some snow flakes/rain showers and cloudiness a possibility almost everyday until Monday as several surface lows move through the area, there are however other ways this can be combated and it might work out to our favor smile emoticon

The Euro and GFS are starting to hint at some sort of big storm that COULD affect the area late next week as NRG coming out of the Pacific, the differences right now is that the Euro wants to split that energy over the rockies and send it diving south into the southern Jet and then form to the south of us before moving towards the region, while the GFS keeps it in the northern stream and moves it right out and NE not affecting us as much...but definitely something to watch for.

Have a great day guys!

Sunday Afternoon Weather Update - So so week coming up

**Sorry about lack of posts in the last week, we have been really busy!**
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Updated: 1940z/15:50/3:50PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Light rain  beginning very late tonight as a very potent   moisture filled system treks across the Ohio Valley and towards us. Lows in the low 40's.

MONDAY - A real soaker! As a warm front approaches and a very potent moisture filled system marches across the region you can expect rain pretty much all day, and it could very well be heavy especially in the morning around rush hour before tapering off in the late afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 50's to upper 40's North and NW of NYC. A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out either, and localized flooding will be possible. Models spitting out between .7" and 1.5" of rain for us. Windy too, would not be surprised if we get Coastal flooding warnings and or localized flooding/flash flood warnings/watches. 

TUESDAY - Maybe a few lingering showers in the morning as the cold front associated with our Monday system passes through in the early morning. Otherwise clearing out partly cloudy/sunny highs in the low to mid 60's.

WEDNESDAY - Another cold front will come through in the afternoon/evening in response to a system well to the north of us, so a chance of some showers. Otherwise partly sunny/cloudy throughout the day highs in the low 60's.

------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION--------------------------

So so week ahead of us! I am sure all of you enjoyed this weekends weather, ALMOST got to 80° yesterday, just shy at 79.6° as our official high for the day. 

Monday's soaking system will usher in a bit of a "change" in the jet stream which will allow for colder air to filter in for the week (cold is relative, so not cold cold, but colder then last week) and many systems to come through providing many many chances for rain and other yucky weather...possibly wintry for some??? You may be asking yourself if you read that right, you did, there will be chances for some of you to get some wintry mess this week.

The models are also hinting at 2 possible bigger storms developing towards the end of next week. The first, if it forms as it shows on the models right now would not affect us in any big way as it will be too far NE...the second one looks pretty potent and big and should be watched, that would be next week. 

Models are also strongly hinting at something that would have been really nice to have back in February: Blocking. A -NAO, -AO and - to + PNA will set up High latitude blocking over Greenland. This will greatly effect the two possible storms I have mentioned above as blocking will allow them to strengthen/phase more over us before moving out to sea. So definitely something to watch for. 

Have a great rest of the day!

Tuesday Evening Weather Update - Nice rest of the week guys!

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Updated: 2300z/19:00/7:06PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Cloudy with a small chance of a shower or two before the night ends. Clearing tonight for sunny skies tomorrow lows in mid 40's.

WEDNESDAY - Beautiful day, a dip in the jet and High pressure will bring cool dry air into the region, highs in the mid 60's maybe up to 70°, mostly sunny maybe a few clouds in the morning and a nice breeze.

THURSDAY - Another nice day, although a bit cloudier and cooler highs around 60°.

FRIDAY - Possible morning shower or two, otherwise partly cloudy and highs in the low 60's.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Nice week guys! Finally some real spring weather! Couple things to talk about first, models are becoming more insistent on some wintry weather for Northern Interior New England and into Interior Maine early next week.

Some rain heading for us late saturday into Sunday, nothing to big.

Ups and down in temperatures continue and we will probably stay below(ish) averages for the remainder of April as the MJO sticks in phases 2/3 and teleconnections remain cold.

Not much else going on!

Have a great night folks!

Sunday Evening Weather Update - Nice week ahead for the most part!

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Updated: 2350z/19:50/07:50PM

------------------------------------FORECAST--------------------------------

TONIGHT - Lows in the mid 40's for most everybody, Clear but getting a bit cloudy towards morning.

MONDAY - Small chance of a spotty shower in the morning, but probably not. Clouds in the morning will clear out, highs in the low 60's for most, nice breeze as well.

TUESDAY - Morning will feature light rain, maybe a thunderstorm or two before clearing out by afternoon, Highs in high 50's to maybe low 60's.

WEDNESDAY - Highs in the high 50's, mostly sunny with some passing clouds likely.

---------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-----------------------

First off, Dillon and I hope that you liked our 2015 Spring Outlook! If you have any questions - come ask away. Spring is an interesting period as it a changing season and we often go up and down in the weather during it. So lets enjoy it!

Pretty nice week coming up for the most part, mild weather in the high 50's to low 60's for most of the week should work out nicely. A cold front will pass through the area Tuesday morning into the afternoon and that will bring some showers and possibly a t-storm with it, and then High pressure will build over the area getting into Wednesday and Thursday, keep in mind this is rather cold air coming down from Canada..it should stay mild, but still below average temperatures for this period. This will stick around until Friday night, as another cold front begins to come into the area for Saturday bringing our next chance at some rain.

Some Highlights
-Rain Tuesday Morning
-Possible Rain Saturday night into Sunday
-Another storm possible early next week.

I have below the 10 day GFS total precipitation totals, the South has some pretty impressive #'s down there, some places near New Orleans approaching the 10" mark. Most of this will fall late this week, would not be surprised of reports of flooding. Of course California is bone dry....we should see that change in the coming months!

Thursday Evening Weather Update - SPRING OUTLOOK SPECIAL

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Updated: 0150z/21:50/09:50PM 

--------------------------2015 SPRING OUTLOOK------------------

Disclaimer: This is Dillon and my first time doing an outlook like this. So bear with us if it is not perfect. Read for the details though and enjoy it smile emoticon

As we get into the heart of spring, and continue on towards summer, please keep in mind that we just went through the second coldest, and one of the snowiest winters on record. These type of sever long term events like to stay for a while, and generally take a long time to leave.

One of the big misconceptions in this world I feel of the general public is that the weather consists of just these storms that move in and out. And that the fronts associated with them govern the temperatures and weather in between... Sadly...this is not the case. There are MILLIONS of other things governing our atmosphere and everyday sensible weather. The biggest thing(s) are the oceans and Sun.

The oceans go through cycles, warm and cold, and their teleconnections and oscillations also go through cycles. Many of these cycles are over 30 years long..some over 60 years. The sun's cycles can sometimes be over 200 years!

Within these big cycles we have smaller cycles, like El Nino's and La Nina's which last typically on average 18 months..sometimes longer and sometimes shorter. Within even that we have the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) which is a shorter seasonal variation in the pacific tropics around the dateline that has an effect on our sensible weather, it usually lasts 30-60 days sometimes up to 90 days.

Why am I telling you all of this? It does not help you with knowing the Spring forecast....But, Dillon and I feel it is important, because it helps you understand that there is so much going into every rain drop that falls and every hour of sunshine, fog, snow, etc. that you see. We as humans do not get to see many of these larger pattern shifts, because they are simply too long. Maybe we see 2 or 3 Oscillation switches, 1 major ocean pattern shift, if we are lucky. Because of this, we believe what we see. Unfortunately in the last 30 years we have been in, for the most part the warm cycles of these patterns. This has led the world to believe that the earth will warm an obscene amount in the next 50 years, and that many other things to ruin our planet will happen. Maybe this is true for pollution. Maybe this is true to a certain extent. For the simple and short answer though, for the earth to warm as much as they say it will, the physics of our atmosphere would have to change. We do not see that happening at all anytime soon. So...enough digressing, lets get on to the actual spring forecast.

At the moment we are in a weak/modoki El Nino. Now, there are hints that this could become a stronger El Nino as the year progresses, but for now we will not worry about this. Whats important is that for our spring, the El Nino will not "Directly" affect us. Instead, we will likely see above normal precipitation and temperatures along the Gulf Coast. The pattern during the winter, which was largely governed by warm water off the West coast, Baha and Gulf of Alaska. This set up a -EPO and +PNA for much of the winter, and pumped up a Ridge in the West (Hence the warm and dry weather in the west) and a Trough in the east. This allowed record breaking cold to penetrate deep into the eastern portions of the country, and warm air to filtrate through the west. 

What we will begin to see this spring is the Trough that has been prominent in the East to retrograde itself west, and and the ridge in the West to retrograde East. This is also due to the normal changing position of the Jet to its normal Late spring summer position.

That being said, the MJO forecast is not looking promising for SUSTAINED warmth of above average temperatures. What we see is it moving into regions 1,2,3. If you see the pictures, you will see what I mean. The Euro is a bit more bullish then the GFS, but essentially what is happening is the models wanna go back and forth between warm and cold periods...a few days warm a few days cold, dropping troughs every so often and letting High pressure build blocking the jet and pushing Arctic Air south. Based on this assumption of it continuing through April and into the better part of May and maybe beginning of June.

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Based on this, our temperatures will look like:

-For the rest of April and likely into May, if not beginning of June, temperatures sticking at or BELOW average (not much) with periodic spikes of above average temperatures (again, not MUCH). Basically back and forth between warm above average temps and late season cold shots.

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Precipitation wise this is what we are thinking:

- We should stay fairly dry, not overly wet but not bone dry. Climate maps and models suggesting on average 0 to -1.5" below average for the running monthly mean. That being said, the sensible weather models are hinting at some impressive precipitation amounts over the next 10 even 20 days..its all relative, and frankly overall it should stay around average once everything sorts itself out. As we get into the summer, June/July things will start to get wetter We think, and most likely we will end up with a summer like last year...but that is for the summer outlook wink emoticon

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Ok, I think this is about as detailed as you guys want us to get for now....dont wanna bore you to death! If you have any questions please Private m

essage us, email us...etc. Thanks!

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Yucky weather Will end soon!

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Updated: 2320z/19:20/7:20PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - A few passing showers is possible around NYC and Northern Suburbs tonight, while a wave of low pressure moves to the north and brings sleet wet flakes on the CT/MA border and heavier snow North and Northeast in Interior Northern New England. Temps in the mid 30's to high 20's in Maine.

THURSDAY - Cloudy, maybe a few rain showers on and off throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40's.

FRIDAY - Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of scattered thunderstorms in the morning and afternoon, very good chance of getting well into the 60's on this day, 60-65° seems very plausible and maybe even close to 70°.

SATURDAY - Sunny with clouds moving in and out...so lets say partly to mostly cloudy? Highs in mid 40's to maybe 50°.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

Highlight of the day...SEVERE WEATHER! Ya not here, but man do we have some interesting stuff going on out in the Plains. What we got is a stalled out frontal Boundary going right across the country from Colorado to Ohio to the Carolina's and to us. You can see it in the pictures I have below. This stalled out boundary also happens to be right smack on the edge of the Pacific jet, and it started ushering in waves of low pressure and NRG and it just keeps on giving wink emoticon. So we get a frontal boundary, a jet giving tons of moisture off the Pacific, warm gulf air being sucked up north, Cold air to the North of the Front...recipe for disaster!

So today we got the nice frontal boundary out west draping through ESE Kansas, west Oklahoma, western Texas and into Missouri. Along with it we have the dry-line located right to its west. Advantage today is that there is little warm air aloft along the dry-line, and Lapse rates, CAPE, wind shear among other items are inline and good for spawning severe thunder storms and tornado's. We can see several areas in SE Kansas, Missouri, even a bit in Kentucky where we have supercells forming. Lets see if we can get a tornado outta one. One thing that was noted is that with little convection over last night and today, the actual frontal boundary lifted north a tad. So, NCEP and other sites have changed their ideas a bit north as well with it. Main show starts this evening and into the nighttime (Late afternoon for them in the plains) as the main bulk of NRG comes in behind the initial upper level disturbance. If winds back off and stay back as the Upper low deepens this afternoon, then thats when we start really seeing the tornado's form. But one step at a time.

NOW, for us here in the NE...the jet will continue to bring in waves of low pressure until Friday night as it all moves out and the HP to our north begins to back off and let the jet resume to its normal moving position. Things should really start to warm up next week, looking like multiple days into the 60's and maybe 70's...do we even see an 80° day late next week? Could be!

CIAO for now!

Tuesday Afternoon Weather Update - Yucky weather Continues

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Updated: 0200z/22:00/10PM

-----------------------------------FORECAST---------------------------------

TONIGHT - Rain on and off will continue as a near stationary front slowly moves south and waves of low pressure ride along it. Lows in the high 30's to low 30's in the north and 20's by the Canadian border and Northern New England.

WEDNESDAY - Showers throughout the day and turning quite windy. If you are north of I84 then you can expect some wintry weather, freezing rain and maybe wet snow. Accumulations should be nothing to worry about, but still could be dangerous on the roads. Watch for a possible Squall line of heavy rain and maybe some thunder late late Thursday night. Highs in the low 40's lows in mid 30's.

THURSDAY - Rain showers/light rain on and off, with fog building as a warm front approaches and high pressure builds to the north. Highs in the high 40's maybe reaching 50°.

FRIDAY - A few stray showers possible in the morning, otherwise highs in the high 50's and guys we very well could get up to 60-65°, partly cloudy in the morning to sunny in the afternoon with few clouds.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

As the seasons change, and we go from winter to spring, the Jet, as I have said before has to move from its normal winter position to its normal spring/summer position. AS it does this...sometimes it gets "blocked" and stuck. Well right now exactly this has happened, and as it does High pressure building to the north will press on it over us, bringing some unseasonably cold air into the area this weekend...although not for long, should be out by Sunday the latest. As we have a very strong subtropical jet stream, that's bringing waves of low pressure along it and ramming it into the cold air of the High pressure over us we get rain, and this is the cause for all the dumpy weather we have been having lately.

So this should last until the end of the weekend max, after which the models are strongly hinting at the jet relaxing closer to its normal spring/summer position, and warming up to really start happening and normal spring arrive. Get ready guys, Spring is just around the corner!

Have a great night!