********WEDNESDAY EVENING UPDATE**********

OK GUYS GOTTA DO A QUICK ONE - LOTS OF OTHER STUFF TO DO!

MORE DETAILED ONE TOMORROW!

ANYWAY!

- SNOW FOR TOMORROW ON THE WAY, HEAVY? NO! LIGHT FLUFFY STUFF, A GENERAL 1-3", MAYBE JUST MAYBE 2-4" IF..AND ONLY IF WE ARE LUCKY. 

TIMING - LATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON (LIKE LUNCHTIME) MAY BE A MESSY RUSH HOUR. 

************************

THEN THE BIG BIG BIG FREEZE...FOLKS YES, WE WILL GO FROM JUST AROUND 30° DURING THE DAY TOMORROW TO NEAR 0° AT NIGHT, NEGATIVE WITH THE WINDCHILLS...FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE FRIGID FRIGID, AS WELL AS THE DAY!!!

MORE COLD FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK COMING.
*************************

Rumors Going Around about a storm next week? WELL YES! The Models have been PRETTY INTENT AND CONSISTENT ON A LONG DURATION WINTER STORM From Sunday through Monday Night, maybe into Tuesday early early morning. Essentially what will happen is a storm will form on the edge of an Arctic front dropping down from Canada. Where this front is positioned will determine the heaviest snows, right now centered more or less over us, NY and parts of New England before a developing Coastal Storm moves up the coast and "merges" with our storm - THIS COULD BUMP UP SNOW DEPENDING ON WHEN AND WHERE THIS HAPPENS TOO!!

Another Possible Event for Next Thursday as well...but this is far out and not to worry about yet.

****MODEL UN FOLKS - GETTING SOMEWHAT WORRIED ABOUT OUR COMMUTE BACK SUNDAY IN TERMS OF THE STORM AND US DRIVING, MORE DETAILS TOMORROW.**********

SNOW MAP BELOW FOR CLIPPER...NOT REALLY MUCH TO SEE.

THANKS RYAN AT WEATHERBELL FOR THE MAPS - HE REALLY DOES AN AMAZING JOB as WELL AS EVERYBODY ELSE ON THE TEAM THERE! IF YOU WANNA LEARN ALOT ABOUT THE WEATHER AND GET AMAZING MAPS - GO TO www.weatherbell.com!!

*******MONDAY EVENING UPDATE ON WEEK AHEAD (WILD ONE?)*********

FIRST OFF, DILLON AND ME ARE VERY PROUD WITH HOW THIS STORM WORKED OUT AND OUR FORECAST - PRETTY MUCH SPOT ON. WE KNEW THAT COLD AIR WOULD STICK AROUND AND THIS STORM WOULD PRODUCE MORE SNOW THEN THE LIQUID STUFF THAT WE ALL HATE wink emoticon

SECONDLY - This next couple weeks COULD go down as the SNOWIEST two weeks for New England and parts of the NorthEast...if that gives you a hint at what is going on!
FLASH FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT! FOLKS TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DROP AND THE WINDS WILL PICK UP. ANY STANDING WATER, MELTED SNOW, UNTREATED SURFACES, ETC WILL FREEZE UP! BE CAREFUL DRIVING, WALKING, GOING OUTSIDE!
******- 3 POTENTIAL STORMS ON THE WAY FOLKS! FIRST ONE FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND THEN 2 MORE NEXT WEEK...AT THE VERY LEAST.********

We Still have details to work out with the storm for Thursday/Friday but KEEP YOUR EYES OUT for posts from us as we will have all the latest details!

TONIGHT - Temps falling to low teens/upper single digits for many and even down into the negatives North and NW of the City. Any snow showers will wrap up and end, skies gradually clearing.

TUESDAY - Highs in the LOW to MID 20's, I DOUBT we will reach 30°! WATCH FOR ICED UP SURFACES!!!! Partly cloudy, becoming sunnier as day goes on. WINDS will stay up there folks!

WEDNESDAY - Some Snow showers are possible during the day, Otherwise partly cloudy and Highs near 32°.

THURSDAY - Possible storm coming during the afternoon/evening into friday. STILL too early to really tell, more details tomorrow and Wednesday.

**********10:45 AM UPDATE ON WINTER STORM LINUS [#LINUS]*********

VERY VERY HAPPY WITH THE FORECAST THAT DILLON AND ME PUT OUT LAST NIGHT, VERY HAPPY. 7.58" SO FAR, NO RAIN YET JUST SLEET AND ICE AND SNOW. 

The storm ended up coming in a tad weaker and was not able to push that Arctic HP as much away, therefore cold air lasted longer.

SO WHATS NEXT?

We have a Secondary low trying to/succesfully ish forming off the Delmarva Peninsula (Well really between Jersey Coast and Delmarva) and THIS will drain some more cold air south and fuel a redevelopment of precipitation as the two fronts collide LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO...SLEET, ICE, SNOW will CONTINUE for the next few hours AND THEN a POTENTIAL HEAVY BAND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER LUNCH AS THE BACKSIDE OF ALL THIS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND and the Secondary low moves NE. 

REST OF TODAY - Snow/Sleet/Ice continuing and then turning back to an all snow solution after lunch for a TIME. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY. Additional accumulations of 1-4" ARE POSSIBLE as that heavy band comes through, WE WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
Temperatures in the High 20's in NYC to Low 20's in Westchester and PROGRESSIVELY colder as you get N/NW/NE of NYC. IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS - MORE OF A RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE.

FLASH FREEZE IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING, TEMPERATURES DROPPING 20-30° FOR SOME TO LOW TO MID TEENS OR UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. ALL STANDING WATER, MELTED PRECIP, UNTREATED ROADS, ETC WILL FREEZE

All precipitation will taper off this evening into nighttime and gradually clear by midnight.

PLACES SOUTH OF YONKERS, COASTAL CT, LONG ISLAND...YOU WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL COMPLETE MESS OF ICE ON YOUR HANDS AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP AND MOISTURE MOVES IN, PRECIP KEEPS FALLING. BE CAREFUL

Additional Snow accumulation map below.

ANY QUESTIONS? IF SO POST IT BELOW IN THE COMMENTS OR MESSAGE ME OR DILLON.

********11PM UPDATE ON WINTER STORM [LINUS?]*********

Snow Has started moving into the area, the ACTUAL system still WAY back in Western PA. The storm looks to be tracking a TAD south of what was thought - GOOD for snow lovers. Models continued to trend south a tad as well, only like 5-10 miles...but any trend is a good trend south.

IT WILL STILL be a close call with rain/snow line - WE ARE EXPECTING A POTENTIALLY SERIOUS ICE SITUATION FOLKS! Looks like at this point we cannot get out of that! UP TO A HALF AN INCH of Ice COULD ACCUMULATE ON TOP OF 5-8" OF SNOW! BE CAREFUL FOLKS!

So, Looking like a GOOD 6-9 hours of SNOW before we start thinking about changing over to wintry mix.

PERSONAL OPINION FROM DILLON AND I - BAD IDEA FOR SCHOOLS ON TWO HOUR DELAY, GOING TO BE VERY VERY ICY AND BAD ROADS/CONDITIONS TOMORROW. LETS HOPE THEY CHANGE THEIR DECISION.

BACK TOMORROW MORNING WITH UPDATES.

STILL HANGING ONTO SNOW ACCUMULATION MAP FROM BEFORE.

************************************************************************

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast.php

*****5:45PM WINTER STORM UPDATE FOLKS ITS COMING FOR US!!!*****

Remy and I have been following the storm all day long, and we have a few minor changes in the forecast. Snowfall amounts, posted in the map below by Remy, are mostly the same as before, but what has changed for the WORSE is the ICE. SIGNIFICANT ICING is now likely in the lower and mid Hudson Valley, Northern New Jersey, and Southwestern Connecticut. Ice accretion in these areas will range from 1/4"-1/2", which is very dangerous for travel. North and south of the these areas, ice accretion will range from .10"-.25".

The storm, which up until the 18z run had was trending north, trended slightly south again on the last run, meaning slightly higher snow accumulations which will be reflected in the snow map. The storm, however, has also strengthened more than expected leading to an increase in the ice forecast
as well.

The heaviest of the snowfall will occur between 11PM and 5AM tonight, when snowfall rates may approach 2" per hour. Between 5AM and 8AM, the snow will mix with and/or change to sleet and freezing rain from south to north and continue until about 3PM when it will change back to light snow. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS POSTED ON MAPS BELOW, SORRY FOLKS, SOUTH OF NYC THIS IS NOT YOUR STORM! - NEW ENGLAND - DOUBLE WHAMMY!!!!
Do not take this storm lightly folks. If you are going to a Super Bowl party tonight, try to be home before midnight.

IF ANYTHING CHANGES WE WILL PROVIDE UPDATES AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE, ENJOY THE SUPERBOWL AND STAY SAFE FOLKS!!!

*********************QUICK Sunday Afternoon Update!**************

The GFS and the NAM have continued their northward trend since yesterday, meaning that there is the chance of less snow and more mixed precipitation especially during the height of the storm on Monday. However, this means SIGNIFICANT ICING is becoming increasingly likely, which is much worse than an extra few inches of snow. For now, though, Remy and I will keep our forecast from last night and will re-post the snow/ice map we made yesterday as the European and Canadian models from midnight are sticking with significant snowfall for the area. Based on some of the data right now, the GFS and the NAM may be too warm with the storm, and they might head towards a solution closer to the European and Canadian models later in the day. Our current snowfall map is more of an average between the four models. We will follow this storm throughout the day and post again later on this afternoon around 5:00 PM when the next model runs come in.

Here is yesterday's snow map, which (for now) still applies: