Click on the link below for our new website:

www.weatherinthehud.com

Long time no see! New Update with some big news!

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Updated: 2335z/19:35/7:35PM
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Hey guys! It has been a while now hasn't it! Dillon and I have been very busy this summer with research, camp, travelling...and...drum roll please...our website! Yes, Through the IEF and administration at the Irvington High School and the AMAZING program that they started last school year; The Innovation Fund; we were given a grant which enabled us to have a professional website designed and built for us. We will now be using this new website as our official page, and will NOT be posting on this page. Our Facebook page will continue to be posted on, the same posts as on our new website. With the Innovation Fund grant, we will also be [hopefully] doing education with kids in the school on meteorology, weather, forecasting, and climate. We will continue to provide what we think are the best, most up to date, specific and accurate forecasts for our town and the Hudson Valley. Come see our forecasts for the latest and greatest in weather and climate, and thank you again to everybody who has supported us since the beginning and trusted in us :) 
LINK to the NEW WEBSITE: www.weatherinthehud.com REMEMBER to sign up at the bottom so you get email updates :) 
LINK to the latest POST: http://www.weatherinthehud.com/2015/08/21/friday-evening-update-nice-weekend-weather/

Sunday Evening Update

Sunday 7:45PM Update

Well, as expected, some heavy rain fell here last night along with quite a bit of wind. A general 1-2" of rain fell across the area, with some heavier amounts over central and southern NJ, where (according to the National Weather Service) as much as 4" fell. So, what's in the forecast for the rest of the week?

Forecast 

Tonight: Any leftover sprinkle and shower activity should lift to our north, allowing for partial clearing overnight. Lows tonight should range in the mid to upper 50s, except over central Connecticut, where lows may drop down to as low as 50. 

Monday: Any clouds in the morning should give way to mostly sunny skies during the day, with any lingering precipitation and most clouds kept well north of the area. Highs will range in the mid to upper 70s. 

Tuesday: It will be mostly sunny across the area during the morning and early afternoon, however, clouds and showers/thunderstorms will build in from west to east ahead of the next shortwave due to arrive in the night and during the day on Wednesday. Highs will range in the low to mid 80s. 

Wednesday: Thunderstorms will be likely throughout the day with highs in the low to mid 80s. Some of the thunderstorms may be on the stronger side, but predictability on their locations and exact strength are too low this far out. 

Discussion

The next couple of days feature our low that dumped heavy rain across the region exit to the northeast as mostly sunny skies build into the area. The next feature of interest will be a shortwave entering the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Although precipitation amounts should be on the lighter side compared to our last system, we will still need to watch out for the possibility of stronger thunderstorms that have the potential to drop heavy rain and wind in a short period of time. The CAPE forecast on some models (including the GFS shown below) do show some energy in the atmosphere that thunderstorms can work with to potentially gain strength. Current models show the strongest of these thunderstorms tracking to the north of the area, but unfortunately, placement and exact strength of these thunderstorms cannot be predicted well three days out, so check back in tomorrow for an updated forecast for Wednesday. Temperatures on all three days, even if precipitation falls, should remain summer-like with highs in the 70s and 80s. 

Saturday Evening Update

7:00PM Saturday Update 

Hi everyone, while Remy is away until July 20th, I will be writing the posts at least until July 4th, and then depending on the internet access at Oxford and my available time, I should be able to post at least sporadically from July 4th until July 20th.

Forecast

Tonight: Rain will become steadier and will be quite heavy during the overnight hours into the morning tomorrow. A general 1-2" of rain can be expected across the region, with higher amounts north and west of the area and lower over Long Island. Lows will be in the mid 50s to low 60s. It will be windy with gusts between 35-40 knots possible.

Sunday: Morning rain should taper off to showers, with partial clearing in the afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s across the entire region.

Monday: Mostly sunny throughout the day, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Clouds may build in during the evening hours, but the day should remain dry, with the greatest chance of any light shower activity north of the region.

Tuesday: Clouds will build in during the evening, but before then Tuesday is looking great with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 with mostly sunny skies. Then, we look to our next system coming through bringing rain and thunderstorms for Tuesday night into Wednesday. More on that in tomorrow's post.


Discussion

Our storm system that gave us some rain today will deepen overnight and produce some heavy rain in the region, with the heaviest of the rain to the north and west of us. Still, 1-2" are possible here with up to 3" in the heaviest bands. Watch out for some pretty gusty winds tonight, with sustained winds of 10-15 knots and gusts 35-40 knots possible. After the storm system clears out tomorrow, we are looking at some pretty good weather for the latter part of Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday with a chance for some wet weather on each day. Monday appears the best of the next three days. The next system to track will be a shortwave on Tuesday night into Wednesday, although it should not be as organized as today's system was (and will be), meaning less in the way of precipitation. However, we will still have to watch for the possibility of heavy rain in thunderstorms that may be severe in some areas. More on that tomorrow.

Friday Afternoon Quick Update - Important note below

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Updated: 0200z/22:00/10PM
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NOTE: I will be leaving tomorrow morning until July 20th to camp. Since I will have no internet, I will be UNABLE to post on the blog during this time. Dillon will post until he leaves for London on July 4th, and then after that the blog will be silent until the 20th. We are sorry for any inconveniences this may cause.

---------------------------------FORECAST-----------------------------------

TONIGHT - lows in the low 60's, cloudy getting cloudier with a chance of a t-storm.

SATURDAY - Here comes the rain! Soaker coming as we get a Mid Latitude Cyclone coming, cloudy in the morning with rain arriving around early to midday between 11 and 12pm. Highs in low 70's. Rain may be heavy at times especially North and NW of here.

SUNDAY - A T-storm is possible in the morning and again maybe in the afternoon, otherwise cloudy with some sun highs in the mid 70's.

MONDAY - Mostly Sunny, highs in the high 70's.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

A deepening low pressure system will move through the lakes and move north over western NY tonight into tomorrow, tracking ENE with a second low forming in the Delmarva Saturday night. Euro painting the picture I like best, because it has been consistent...anyway, dry morning tomorrow becoming wet and wetter throughout the day especially in the northern NYC suburbs and N/NW of it. Low level convergence and highest lift will be to the NW as well keeping the heaviest rain that way. Low moves through the area Saturday night, Precipitable water upwards of 2.2" so a lot of rain guys! 2-3" of rain will definitely be possible in the Hudson Valley so be careful for localized flooding. Rain ends Sunday early morning, watch for gusty winds as well 35-40kts.

Plenty of shortwaves coming through in the next week, so watch for isolated t-storms throughout the week, but Dillon will keep you guys updated!

Have a great next month folks!!!!

Tuesday Afternoon Quick Update - Severe T-Storms on the way!

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Updated: 1957z/15:57/3:57pm

---------------------------------FORECAST-----------------------------------

REST OF TODAY - SPC has Upgraded us to the enhanced section of their scale, with a 40-50% chance of gusts over 50 miles per hour, 10-20% of 1" hail, and 5-10% chance of an isolated tornado. Watch for locally severe thunderstorms, possible hail, heavy wind gusts and possible isolated tornado from now through this evening as the cold front comes through and storms head out. Heaviest storms will likely be between 4:30 and 5:30pm with it all moving out between 6-7 around NYC metro area, 7-8 points east of that, and a bit later out by Montauk and Nantucket.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
WESTERN NEW HAVEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
PUTNAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...
WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...
...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED NEAR YORKTOWN HEIGHTS...OR NEAR
MOUNT KISCO...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE DAMAGING WINDS.

(FROM THE SPC)

Watch out folks! Be careful! Watch for heavy rain as well and some localized flooding!

Temps will go down to low 70's/high 60's tonight.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=okx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

Monday Evening Update - Solar Storm Tonight, Storms Tomorrow

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Updated: 0055z/20:55/8:55PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Partly cloudy, lows around 70°. Big thing for tonight is the MASSIVE solar storm going on...IF YOU go outside tonight you MIGHT be able to see the Aurora, most commonly known as the Northern Lights because of the power of this solar storm. If you do go out, make sure you are facing north towards the horizon, and away from city lights...you may be lucky! If so TAKE PICS! 

TUESDAY - Mostly cloudy skies for central New England, as t-storms depart from tonight, otherwise partly cloudy and hot, muggy disgusting down by NYC getting highs into high 80's if not reaching or just above 90° especially by NYC. T-Storms arriving in the afternoon as a cold front comes through - these could be big and severe thunder storms, gusty winds, heavy rain bursts and maybe some hail. These will clear out by midnight likely, SPC has us in the slight to ENHANCED zone for severe weather, they do mean business. 


WEDNESDAY - Sunny, nice, really beautiful day, drier and a tad cooler air highs in low to mid 80's.

THURSDAY - Partly sunny, getting cloudier in the evening as our next system approaches. Highs in high 70's to low 80's.

FRIDAY - Rain in the morning should taper off by afternoon - but this still has some kinks that must be worked out to it. More info Wednesday.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Big storms coming tomorrow night folks! SPC has us in the slight to enhanced zone in terms of their severe weather catagories, so lets keep an eye on them. Threat is bigger as you get into South Central New England (Western CT/MA) and the Mid Hudson Valley. Coastal Areas along the LI Sound and Boston, Nantucket may fair better as t-storms will have a bit of a hard time keeping themselves together all the way to the coast.

Warm front lifts to the north in the morning, SW flow sets up bringing in warm and moist air through the day, up to 90° or above in NYC and surrounding metro area especially around Newark and the shore, watch for the heat index it will be high tomorrow!!!!! Instability increases throughout the day as cold front approaches, CAPE 1800-2400 across much of the area - perfect for severe weather, scattered t-storms and showers developing in the mid to late afternoon, mostly after 3pm with an organized MCS line developing West of the Hudson moving SE, with good shear 35-50kts or so and high CAPE, these t-storms should easily reach severe level. SLIGHT risk for an isolated tornado, most likely in areas talked about above, but see the map in the pictures. Hail a definite possibility as well and gusty winds are the main threat. 

All storms should push out in the early to late evening, maybe a few stray isolated showers later, but definitely all clear by 9-10pm as the Cold Front passes through spreading drier air into the region. 

Getting into the rest of the week, NICE day Wednesday as weak high pressure builds, perfect for the Kooks Concert in Central Park :). 

Trough comes through Thursday night into Friday - exact location, timing and strength of it is still being tossed around so more updates later on what it will mean for us. 

Have a great week!

Saturday Afternoon Update - Here comes Bill!!!!

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Updated: 1700z/13:00/1:00PM
NOTE: SORRY FOR NO UPDATES in the last week, Dillon and I have both had finals and have been really busy!

---------------------------------FORECAST-----------------------------------

REST OF TODAY - Chance for some scattered showers, maybe a isolated t-storm especially ENE of NYC, but otherwise cloudy, highs into low to mid 70's. Rain arriving tonight.

TONIGHT - Widespread rain arriving between 9 and 10pm, light at first but getting heavier as the night goes on and Bill comes closer. Watch for localized flooding, and some t-storms, heavy heavy tropical rain. Rain probably between .75-1.5" tonight. lows around 70°.

SUNDAY - Rain, heavy rain, a break then more rain! Heavy rain in the morning will continue on and off throughout the day as Bill moves on out by mid afternoon...A BREAK! but no wink emoticon another shortwave comes through in the evening and will spread more rain...not nearly as heavy though, but still rain. Maybe some sun peaking through in the afternoon as Bill moves out. THERE IS A FLOOD WATCH, SO BE CAREFUL! Highs in the mid to high 80's, muggy and disgusting.

MONDAY - Weak ridging and high pressure builds into the area, drier air as well, highs in low 80's, mostly sunny with some clouds.

TUESDAY - Potential for a thunderstorm in the afternoon, otherwise partly cloudy and warm above average, low to mid 80's.

------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION--------------------------

Here comes Bill!!! Well really remnants of Bill, but its good enough!

High pressure will continue to move offshore today into the afternoon, and low level moisture will increase. As this happens warm air advection will strengthen as remnants of Bill get closer. Dewpoints will continue increase a a lot tonight into mid 60's and isolated t-storms this afternoon. The shortwave (open) that is Bill moves in later tonight, should see rain east of the Hudson River/NYC after 9pm, surface low moves through by Sunday afternoon, heavy rain tonight and much of tomorrow on and off, t-storms too, not much in the way of wind but maybe some nice gusts with t-storms. PWAT (Precipitable water) 2.3" by this evening, spots 3" tomorrow, axis of heaviest rain North Central NJ through to NYC metro area/ suburbs and along LI. Watch for second shortwave in the evening tomorrow so a break of rain as bill moves out, then another bout of it but not as heavy but maybe a t-storm or two.

Some of the models have quite a lot of rain in store for us, just look at the pictures below. Watch for localized flooding!!!!

Getting into Monday and Tuesday, above average temps +5 or so in the mid 80's then a bit of a cool down to more normal temps by mid week. Plenty of chances for some t-storms as shortwaves come through between Ridging and High pressure.

Congratz to everybody who graduated today!!! and enjoy the first week of no school smile emoticon unless you got chem wink emoticon

Sunday Afternoon Update - Heavy rain coming, Tropical Moisture next week?

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Updated: 2250z/18:50/6:50PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Watch the floods! As warm front digs in and low pressure waves move across it, frontogenesis will occur and heavy rain + t-storms, some severe will role up to our front doors! Most models predicting between .75-1.2" of rain before tomorrow evening. Clouds will role in this evening, watch for rain and storms to start mostly after 8-9pm and last through the night. Lows in the low 60's.

MONDAY - Heavy rain in the morning will continue on and off in periods, some of the storms and t-storms could be severe and bring heavy rain - watch for localized flooding. Highs in the mid to high 70's. WET DAY

TUESDAY - Warmer, partly sunny in the morning with clouds in the afternoon with a real good chance of some heavy rain/t-storms in the evening as a cold front rips through the area. Highs in the low 80's.

WEDNESDAY - High pressure builds into the area behind the cold front, highs around 80°, mostly if not completely sunny...beautiful day! 

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

Well do we have a wet week coming up or what! YES, rain will dominate the first 2 days of the week… then some calm before another possible system that will traverse through the area late week into the weekend – POSSIBLY aided from remnants of the tropical mess that will impact the gulf – which by the way is a very interesting situation! So…..lots to talk about, let’s break it all down:

Warm front approaches tonight from the SW, at the same time Low Pressure will form along it and slide up into the area. Cold front exits the region tomorrow night and another Cold front Tuesday will continue the rain through to Tuesday Night before High pressure builds behind it briefly into Wednesday (so good weather Wednesday). Precipitation moves in slowly this evening and into the night as ridging moves to our east, adiabatic (isentropic) lift will increase, as well as instability as the warm front digs in and creates Frontogenesis. Thunder and any t-storms will arrive later as it will take a while for the precip to arrive and for forcing to begin, so most likely heavy rain with some thunder then t-storms late in the night after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall through the night and into tomorrow especially in the late morning through the afternoon as insolation heats things up and mesoscale complexes move through the region. Heaviest storms will be across NW Jersey into Westchester and NYC, into Philly and Baltimore. Heavy rain to the north of that, but not as much in the way of heavy t-storms – as of now.

NEXT THING on the LIST: Tropical Development? I know I said I didn’t think we would get a “named” storm from the NHC…AND I still think they will have a hard time naming it…BUT BUT BUT, it certainly will be a tropical system coming into the gulf region of Texas with gale force winds and heavy rain that could very well flood Houston and surrounding areas AGAIN (Sorry Redneck ) The models are also indicating conditions will improve for development as the system crosses into Texas – meaning it could very well become more organized and defined after “landfall” and stay organized as it recurves back up through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. SO…That other system I said might affect us late next week could very well be aided by tropical moisture and remnants from the system currently brewing in the Yucatan peninsula which should make it into Texas in the next 72-96 hours. Will keep everybody updated on this! See Picture!

Friday Afternoon Update - Eyes on the gulf, and more rain

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Updated: 2045z/16:45/4:45PM

---------------------------------FORECAST-----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Scattered thunderstorms in the evening and into the night, guys these are isolated and some may get hit, some may not. Some are strong, others are not as strong. But, chance for isolated thunderstorms and heavier downpours especially as you get further north of NYC and as the warm front sweeps through. Lows in the high 60's to around 70°.

SATURDAY - Highs a bit cooler then today, low 80's and a bit drier as high pressure (weak) builds in behind the cold front from Friday night. Watch for some clouds, but otherwise should be a nice day, small chance of a t-storm in the morning though.

SUNDAY - Some sun in the morning but watch for those clouds moving in. Highs in the low 80's.

MONDAY - Rain is coming - most likely wink emoticon warm front comes through Monday followed by a cold front Tuesday, so expect more widespread rain and some t-storms localized heavy downpours as well. Highs a bit cooler in low to mid 70's.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

And so a new pattern is coming! Upper level ridging and High pressure will build over the SE likely focusing the heaviest rains Texas --> Oklahoma --> Illinois --> Ohio --> Mid Atlantic/NY. In addition to this, eyes on the gulf! Will we get a TC out of the mess down there? likely NO, but we sure will get some heavy rains and flooding and winds for Texas and up on along that axis I explained above (which is in the picture as well below)

Warm front approaches Sunday and cross the area Monday bringing more widespread rain to the area, cold front moves in through Tuesday, the rain should all end by Tuesday night and give a nice Wednesday as weak high pressure builds but lets watch for another system that could affect us Thur-Fri next week.

Quick note on the MJO - Seeing it go into phase 3 in the next couple of weeks, which means for us continued above average temps...not by much, but a bit, that being said watch for those bursts of colder air smile emoticon

Have a great weekend guys!

Wednesday Evening Update - Summer, oh summer

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Updated: 0120z/21:20/09:20PM

---------------------------------FORECAST-----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Partly Cloudy/clear warmer lows in the mid 60's.

THURSDAY - Muggy and humid as a ESE flow sets up, sunny with clouds in the morning will give way to more clouds and a good chance for some t-storms in the afternoon, some could be strong, gusty winds and heavy bursts of rain. Hottest day of the week, highs in the mid to high 80's, could see 90° in a few spots.

FRIDAY - Warm but a bit drier, not AS humid but still humid, sunny, highs in the low to mid 80's.

*Tell ya one thing, the AC better be working tomorrow and Friday at school :)*

SATURDAY - T-storms return especially in the afternoon likely, as a low passes to the north and a cold front is dragged along with it, otherwise partly sunny/partly cloudy highs in the low to mid 80's.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

OKI DOKI! Enjoy today? Was not too hot or cold, nice and breezy smile emoticonperfect weather. Well do not get use to it!

High pressure will move offshore, and Bermuda High will strengthen a bit bringing a ESE/SSW flow and humid, warm air into the region especially getting into NYC-Jersey and South...Highs in the HIGH 80'S into the 90's south west of NYC, mid to high 80's with maybe a few 90's N/NW of NYC...coastal areas a bit cooler.

Tomorrow as a cold front slowly drags along and some disturbances ride along it watch out for scattered showers and t-storms especially in the evening after all the heating from the day, convection and instability will increase through the day. Plenty of water in the air, +1.5" so watch for heavy rain.

Cold front will bring in cooler and drier air for Friday into the weekend, along with High pressure building over us, not as muggy...BUT, LP moving through the N. Great Lakes and into Northern NY will drag a cold front with it, as well as a warm front ahead of it will increase the convection throughout the day and set up instability for a possibility of some strong t-storms and gusty winds into the evening. As that leaves the area comes with it HP and cooler air and then the cycle continues again...t-storms, warm air, cold air, etc. You know the drill!

Now A quick little El Nino Update! It might be easier for those reading this to view it on the blog page as the pictures will be lined up with the actual words...ANYWAY (Oh and sorry bout the pic quality JAMSTEC has to work on their maps)

First picture shows the predicted temperature anomalies from JAMSTEC, who is very reliable, for June-July-August. NOT as cool as last year, but still you can see it is not much ABOVE AVERAGE (unless you count +.5°C a lot). You can see Texas and much of the mid portion of the country below normal, following the El Nino. The important thing here is to watch what happens as the year goes on....carefully.

SECOND picture showing same thing, predicted temp anomalies but for September - October - November. Cold has expanded east more, and at the same time if you look at the El Nino graphs you can see it has reached its peak here and is declining and returning to a more modoki signature...same as last year 

wink emoticon

JAMSTEC SON Temp ANOMALIES

THIRD PIC showing Dec-Jan-Feb anomalies...WOW, almost ALL of the country WELL below average temps!!!! What does the El Nino Modoki index say? It gets stronger at the same time the temps get lower! HINT HINT smile emoticon

So, alot of models and a lot of people are saying there will be a massive El Nino...THIS IS TRUE (ISH) The models have been ALL over the place with the intensity...one thing is for sure, it will not be more then +2.5, most likely it will end up between 1.5-2 as the current trends are going...what is interesting though is that while the intensity forecasts have been changing, it has been more or less consistent of when it ends and what state it goes into after ending - Modoki...so if that gives any indication of what next winter will be like, especially since we had the same setup last winter....speaking of winter, I hear the snowpiles up in Boston are still going strong? Peter is this true? Lucky people ;)

There ya go! Latest update is done smile emoticon Have a nice night folks!

Monday Afternoon Quickie Update - Tornado Watches for some!!!

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Updated: 2000z/16:00/04:00PM

----------------------------------WARNINGS----------------------------------

TORNADO WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

BROOME CHEMUNG CHENANGO
CORTLAND DELAWARE OTSEGO
SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS

THIS INCLUDES: BINGHAMTON...CORTLAND...DELHI...
DEPOSIT...ELMIRA...ENDICOTT...FACTORYVILLE...FOREST CITY...
GREAT BEND...HALLSTEAD...HANCOCK...HAWLEY...HAZLETON...
HONESDALE...ITHACA...JOHNSON CITY...KINGSTON...LANESBORO...
LIBERTY...MILFORD...MONTICELLO...MONTROSE...MOUNTAIN TOP...
NANTICOKE...NARROWSBURG...NEW MILFORD...NICHOLSON...NORWICH...
ONEONTA...OWEGO...SCRANTON...SIDNEY...SOUTH FALLSBURG...
SPRINGFIELD...STAMFORD...TUNKHANNOCK...WALTON...WAVERLY...
WAYMART AND WILKES-BARRE

WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM (20:00, 0000Z)

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT - Read above for where the Tornado watches are. I do not expect them to expand these watches any further east of where they are now, but still be on the look out for heavy t-storms and downpours this afternoon and evening especially after 8PM. Tornado watch will go down at 8PM unless they decide to continue it.

Heaviest storms will be west of the Hudson, most storms will not reach the NYC metro area, Northern Suburbs until well after 8PM, closer to midnight. Surface Instability has been increasing slowly, but increasing over the last 8 hours and it will continue to increase along with the mL CAPE to 800-1200, Possibly localized higher amounts. Shortwave passes through this evening as the warm front passes through, organized convection and the line of storms will continue, again the worst west of the Hudson river, possibly a tornado as good wind shear 30knts or so and rotation. Convection will weaken as it moves over our region. Coastal areas should be fine.

Look at picture below, simulated radar, look at the times, that is when the storms should be approaching our area. Watch for gusty winds and heavy rain. Have a great night!

Sunday Afternoon Update - Some rain and then the heat!

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Updated:2045z/16:45/4:45PM

-----------------------------------FORECAST---------------------------------

TONIGHT - Mostly clear but a few clouds rolling in and out, lows in the mid 50's.

MONDAY - Sunny in the morning then the clouds start rolling in as a warm front approaches, Thunderstorms and rain are likely in the afternoon, some of the t-storms may be strong. Highs in the mid 70's.

TUESDAY - Cold front comes in behind the warm front on Monday, Scattered showers and t-storms throughout the day, highs in the high 70's to maybe 80°.

WEDNESDAY - Between frontal systems! Mostly sunny in the morning with clouds moving about in the afternoon, getting cloudier at night.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

And SO some of the warmth comes back! Gonna definitely be warmer this week, but thunderstorms and rain still comes with that smile emoticon

Deepening moisture and increasing instability ahead of the warm front tomorrow midday through thr afternoon will allow for convection to occur, mainly inland north and west of NYC but also up into the mid Hudson Valley east of the river and Northern NYC suburbs, a few strong storms could develop but conditions are not amazing, heaviest of the storms that DO develop will be west of the Hudson, that being said watch out for rain and scattered t-storms in the afternoon. Coastal areas should be good smile emoticon

Cold front comes through Tuesday and will allow for more organized convection ahead of the cold front throughout the day, look out for isolated t-storms but watch for localized heavy rain bursts. Whole system clears out Tuesday night as the main trough moves through Maritime Canada.

Surface High pressure Wednesday and Thursday will try to clear things up a bit, but watch for clouds in and out Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Next cold front comes through Friday, we gotta watch for weak shortwaves to be passing through they might cause some trouble in the latter part of the week. Next weekend could have another more organized system smile emoticon

Monday Evening Update - Quick Rain Update

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Updated: 0055z/20:55/08:55PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Temperatures going down to upper 40's, a bit windy with rain showers and t-storms becoming more steady as the night wears on. WATCH for localized flooding in low spots.

TUESDAY - Steady rain should begin to taper off late morning into the afternoon, Lets keep in mind that some of the models have it sticking around past 2pm and tapering off late afternoon, clouds will stick around though clearing through the night as High pressure builds. Highs a tad warmer then today, around 60-62°

WEDNESDAY - A bit warmer, highs in the mid 60's, partly cloudy, a bit breezy, High pressure continues to build into the area.

THURSDAY - Partly cloudy, highs again in mid to upper 60's, not as windy...small chance of a shower or two but doubting it right now.

------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION--------------------------

As waves of low pressure/shortwaves continue to move along the frontal boundary to the south of us, a more organized mass of rain showers, some t-storms and steady rain will develop tonight and last through the night into tomorrow afternoon before tapering off tomorrow night. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, the heaviest rain should follow a line from Philly --> NYC northern Suburbs --> Boston before it all ends. CURRENTLY here in Irvington we have recorded 1.03" rain today, and 2.79" rain yesterday (sunday) bringing our total for this system to 3.82"...BASED on the current models, and meso-analysis of the system, I really do think along that line mentioned above, another 1 to 2" of rain before Wednesday will not be uncommon, with totals from the system coming close to or exceeding 5".

 

 As of yesterday morning at 10am, we were at 33% the normal precipitation for the month of May. By midnight last night, we had jumped to 94% of our normal precipitation for May, so that was good good catch up, although ideally it would have been better to have had it spread out over the entire month.

smile emoticon

Oki doki, watch for flooding tomorrow in low spots, enjoy the cool weather, and remember umbrellas! Have a nice night smile emoticon

Sunday Afternoon Update - Here come the DELAYED rains!

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Updated: 1945z/15:45/3:45PM

----------------------------------FORECAST---------------------------------- 

REST OF TODAY - Rain showers and localized heavy downpours/t-storms as well as possible HAIL and high wind gusts will move across the area in response to the cold front trudging its way through well to the west of us. Rains will become more organized as evening progresses. Temps maxing out around 80° WATCH FOR FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TONIGHT - Cold front passes in the late evening probably between 7-9pm, watch those temps plummet into high 50's low 60's across much of the area north of NYC northern suburbs.

MONDAY - Rain for much of the day heavy at times, watch for localized flooding as 1-3" across the area of rain can be expected with this system from late tonight through Tuesday night.. Highs Monday in the HIGH 50's maybe reaching 60-62°

TUESDAY - Watch for Thunderstorms and rain in the morning into the afternoon possible as the system exits to the east, then maybe some partial clearing and the sun should peak out in the late afternoon - need some things to come into play for this to happen so lets wait and seer], highs in the low to mid 60's.

WEDNESDAY - High pressure builds into the area behind the storm system and drier cooler air comes in, Highs in the mid to high 60's maybe up to 70°, clouds in and out and watch for some wind.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

OKI Doki very potent system we got moving into place, lets get into the rains - for the next 2-3 days!!!

Cold front will continue to move southward, right now it is just about 35-50 miles north of us, anyway it will continue southward through the afternoon and will move to the south of us by late tonight - now, if it were just this cold front then the rains would be short and sweet - BUT, big BUT, we have waves of low pressure that will form along the frontal boundary and move NE from the Jersey/Baltimore region through our region and into New England lasting through, AT THE VERY LEAST late late Monday night - but likely into Tuesday afternoon if things shape up well. WE NEED this rain - THAT being said, the ground is dry, and flooding will occur so watch out, especially getting into the Mid Hudson valley and CT/MA border down into Jersey where 2-4" of rain could fall over the next 2-3 days. NYC and Northern Suburbs, including LI and along the Jersey coastline, CT coastline and southern N.E a bit less rain, but still 1-3" with localized higher amounts.

For the immediate afternoon, instability is increasing as we speak as the cold front enhances the lift in front (south) of it, mL Cape is 1200-1800 should increase to 2200-2500 j/kg before decreasing as the Front moves to the south of us...lots of precipitable in the air in excess of 2" across the area will feed the system, and with low winds out of the lower level jet these storms will sit...sit and sit.

Low pressure moves along the front getting into Monday and a shortwave NRG moving across will increase that lift, so watch ot for more heavy rain although not as many t-storms, NE flow develops as High pressure moves into the region Monday night into Tuesday and cooler air/drier - in the mid 60's to low 70's comes into place for much of the week.

SO...this is all good rain to help our dry spell, BUT be careful for any flooding! Models continue to show more rain for the end of the week getting into next week as well, so we will keep an eye on that! Graphics below to show some of the things talked about here smile emoticon have a nice rest of Sunday!

Friday Evening Weather Update - Weekend Outlook Rain in Sight!
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Updated: 0030z/8:30PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

REST OF TODAY - Temperatures will begin to cool down into the high 60's for the night, mostly clear....BUT

TONIGHT - Clouds rolling in tonight as High pressure moves offshore and moist humid and warmer air moves in...fog possible as the the dry cooler air meets the warmer humid air...lows in the high 60's to maybe even low 70's.

SATURDAY - Partly Sunny/Cloudy with a good chance of t-storms rolling in the afternoon as a SSW flow sets up and instability ramps up a bit...watch out for those smile emoticon Temps in the low 80's, humid.

SUNDAY - Cold front approaches and as NRG comes along with it, ridging to the south of us should slow it down, ridging behind it will bring cooler air and give us a nice wet day LIKELY, and much needed rain. Cooler highs in the low to mid 70's.

MONDAY - Chance of showers in the morning depending on the system setup for Sunday, otherwise cloudy to partly sunny highs COLD just about in the 58-62° range, drier as the day goes on.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

Can we FINALLY get some good rains? Looks like our best bet is gonna be Sunday for this system, if it comes along smile emoticon

Cold front sweeps in from the NW coming down across the great lakes with High pressure behind it bringing down colder Canadian air Saturday night into Sunday, mostly late morning through the afternoon for all east of the Hudson River, although some places well to the north might get it before NYC area does, NOW, here is the question, NRG comes in with this...do we develop a nice slow moving soaker as Ridging on both sides slows us down? Or do we weaken the Atlantic Ridging more and this Cold front just sweeps through in and out...all this is gonna decide how much rain we do get. Right now looking at the data I am confident in saying we will see the front stall and the shortwave NRG slides along it....but for how long.,...? Greatest chance for heavy rain Sunday evening through early Monday morning. The Euro likes the more rain idea as it keeps it a more neutral tilted trough and allows more LP/shortwaves to "dance" across it maybe even into late Monday.

After our system, High pressure behind it builds into the area, drier and much cooler conditions appear for much of next week.

El Nino Update! Ok, lets talk SST's: SST's across the Eastern Pacific, namely in the Nino 12 area are exploding (haha get it? explodding?...OK not literally :P) and the thermocline is getting deeper...that being said I am not seeing a "SUPER NINO" off the charts scenario...even though the models have many ensembles going +3.5°C Anomaly, which is absurdly high, the mean, and averages are sticking around +2 to 2.2°C anomaly. For comparison, the Super El Nino of 97/98 got to between +4-5°C. The warmest waters are in the east right now moving west, slowly, but definitely moving, especially deepening the expansion to 50-75m below sea level, this will continue...the question is how much. I am liking the JAMSTEC model which is usually pretty good at these ENSO events, as the modellers at JAMSTEC focus more on the oceans then others do...so, they are giving us an El Nino peaking Late August to September...possibly later, to +1.5 to +1.8°C before backing off to a Modoki signature like we saw last winter (hence why my idea for the winter is as it is)...Anyway....lets see how this turns out and more updates on it coming soon!

Cya guys!

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Thunderstorms are here!

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Updated:2247z/6:47PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

REST OF TODAY - Currently Have some decent T-Storms making there way across the river, right now looking at a particular cell, you are probably already hearing the thunder it is about 20 miles away moving 49MPH towards us, it has decent strength should reach us in the next 10 minutes at least. Watch for some downpours and lightning/thunder, light rain on and off for the rest of the evening into the night. Temps currently at 74° winds out of the West at 3MPH, barometer is dropping. WATCH OUT, ABOUT 3 MORE CELLS MAKING THERE WAY OVER

TONIGHT - Storms Clearing out well before midnight, temps dropping into mid 60's, winds still a bit gusty. Had up to 19mph gusts out of the SE today.

THURSDAY - Possibility of a t-storm and some rain showers, otherwise like today highs in the low 80's, but humid with the South Easterly flow.

FRIDAY - Less humid as the flow becomes less southerly, highs near 80°, sunny with wispy clouds in and out.

****SEE THE RADAR FOR THE LATEST ON THE STORMS LOCATIONS****

Blog Update - Come take a look!

Hey guys! No forecast tonight, just a heads up though of some changes to the blog site:

- Added Regional Weather Radar, look on the right sidebar, it is the first thing there. **NOTE - Trying to find a more interactive module

- Added the WeatherBug Widget, this displays some of the data that comes from the WeatherBug Weather Recording Station at the Irvington Public School. Please note, the forecast that is on that widget is WeatherBug's forecast and NOT ours [WeatherInTheHud with Remy & Dillon]

- Added WeatherBug Station Data Link, this is the link to the Student page for the WeatherBug Weather Station. **If it asks for Login information, enter the Zipcode: 10533 and choose Irvington Middle School, then 8th grade.** Once on the site, you can navigate through the sidebar. There are many activities, tools, and fun information as well as educational material. TO GET to the raw data from our station at the High School click the <TOOLS> tab on the sidebar, then the first link <Weather Observations> this will open a new page with the station data, there are some tabs you can use to see different items, and archived data 180 days past, as well as graphing capabilities

Dillon and I hope everybody enjoys these new features! We will keep trying to make the blog better and add new features, so please, if you have any suggestions on how we can make it better please let us know by either commenting on this post, or emailing me at remymerm@aol.com or Dillon at dillonpalmieri@yahoo.com

Thanks!

Sunday Afternoon Weather Update - HAPPY Memorial Day!

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Updated: 2030z/16:30/04:30PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

REST OF TODAY - Temps in the mid 80's will begin to cool down, mostly sunny with some clouds, southerly flow will continue to bring humid(er) air into the region behind the warm front to our north.

TONIGHT - Lows in the low 60's to high 50's well to the north of NYC. Some clouds, mostly clear though.

TUESDAY - A bit warmer, highs in the mid to high 80's, small chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon, more so if to the north in Putnam Valley/Central Hudson Valley..otherwise, partly cloudy, mostly sunny, humid.

WEDNESDAY - Chance of t-storms and rain in the late afternoon/evening, otherwise highs around 80-83°, partly cloudy/partly sunny.

THURSDAY - Another chance of t-storms in the afternoon and light rain throughout the day as well, otherwise a tad cooler highs around 80°. Humid.

-----------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION---------------------------

First, a very very happy Memorial Day to all, and a HUGE, MONUMENTAL thanks to all the service members who have dedicated themselves and their families to protecting our country.

Next, HUGE amounts of rain pummeling the southern Plains and Texas, places in Oklahoma and Texas have received over 2 feet of rain in the last couple of weeks! Massive flooding is going on as well from the rain, lets wish them all a speedy recovery!

Some drought relief coming for us, somewhat. See, we will get rain, but the ground is so dry, and warm that evo-transpiration evaporation will exceed precipitation, and so while we may not get deeper into drought, we will not get better...that being said, we are not in THAT bad of a situation.

The Bermuda high is strengthening, and so will promote the SW flow to continue over the next couple of days bringing in warm and humid air into the region through the end of the week, that being said coastal areas will stay in the mid to upper 70's as those sea breezes kick up. You will notice it a bit windier this week...anyway. Ridging will continue to retrograde and expand westward over the week, the Bermuda High will stay in place and warm air will continue to pump pump its way in. Cold front drops in through the weekend, probably late Saturday night into Sunday and this could bring some nice rain....timing still iffy so lets wait on this, but definitely more organized then the thunderstorms this week.

Summer forecast will not be out until Mid June, Dillon and I have finals, and research work to do, and we feel it is best to wait until Summer OFFICIALLY starts..also a lot of things changing right now that could impact the summer, so lets wait and see.

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Lets keep the cool

wink emoticon
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Updated: 0045z/20:47/08:47PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Chance of a sprinkle or two, otherwise partly cloudy/clear lows COOL in the mid 40's to high 30's possible in NW NY and interior N.E.

THURSDAY - Gonna be a close call as a system develops in the Mid Atlantic and moves North, it might be raining in NYC but not here...chance of some showers/light rain especially in the afternoon into evening...overall though maybe 30-40% chance though. Highs a bit cooler then today as HP just to the north of us builds slightly around 60-62°.

FRIDAY - NO SCHOOL! (At least for Irvington kids wink emoticon ) Highs around 70°, chilly morning though., Clouds in and out as Low Pressure builds to the NE and E, otherwise sunny.

SATURDAY - Highs in the high 60's, breezy, less clouds then Friday but in and out.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

OK Whats going on! ALOT believe it or not....affecting us or not physically it affects the weather for us anyway. Shortwave will continue to cross the Ohio Valley tonight into tomorrow and allow Low pressure to form in the Mid Atlantic coasts...nice May soaker for all those south of NYC essentially in the Mid Atlantic especially Baltimore. Clouds will role in north of NYC but not expecting much rain, maybe a few sprinkles in NYC and on LI.....Bigger chance of rain in the evening, still only 30-40% as shortwave digs and low deepens off the coast.

Now, Update on spring! The Sun is making its way slowly north as we gear up for our Summer Solstice...currently the sun is at just under 14°N Latitude, about 62° Altitude in our sky (it will get to about 72°), a little over halfway to its summer spot at 23.5°N for June 21st and our longest day, nearly 14 hours of sunlight. After that it is all downhill from there as the sun makes it back to the equator for the fall equinox and then 23.5°S for the winter solstice and our shortest day of the year, only 9 ish hours of sunlight.

As I said before, temps will continue going back and forth but CFSV2 liking june staying just about at or just above average temps, then a cool down in July... However this is a volatile situation as the El Nino on the models looking like either super duper strong or not so strong with every run...lets see what they finally agree on and what the conditions show. We have seen a steady expansion of the warm pools, but lets wait and see....

CFSV2 showing strong El Nino all the way through next year, just saying, but not buying that for now. Any rumors about Pacific crash...ehhh not so much from what I see. Warm pools will diminish a bit but I don't think it would qualify as a "crash" in anyway. Again El Nino changing and all this will have an impact so...lets wait and see.

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Like the cool weather??

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Updated: 2335z/19:35/07:35PM

---------------------------------FORECAST-----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Cold WATCH for frost, lows in the low to mid 40's, winds dying down though will make it not as bad. Clear.

THURSDAY - Highs in the high 60's, a tad warmer then today. Nice day, clear, not as much wind at all.

FRIDAY - A tad warmer, highs around 70°, watch out for some clouds...not too bad though. Nice day. Clouds getting thicker at night as a very weak frontal system moves through.

SATURDAY - Highs in the mid 70's, cloudy with showers in the morning and maybe a t-storm or two during the morning into the afternoon...not much though.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Now was that temperature contrast or not! We reached 83.6° Yesterday, and only 64.3° today - that is over a 19° difference in less then 24 hours!

Now, lets enjoy it...cooler weather, closer to average will be sticking around for the next couple days and into the weekend. High pressure will continue to build to the west of us tonight and move over us tomorrow into Friday. Watch for those clouds forming Friday afternoon as a weak area of low pressure/frontal system moves closer into the night. Showers and maybe a t-storm into Saturday afternoon cannot be ruled out. Models are sticking with the precipitation staying to the north of us as the warm front moves through..we shall see. GFS does want to build things up a bit, showing CAPE 1500-2200 during the day Saturday and a good amount of instability for the afternoon into evening in terms of t-storms, but lets see what the ridging does to try to stop that. Likely, if a cell does form FRIDAY NIGHT, it will be mostly quick bursts of heavy rainfall as storm motion very slow and now that much convection going on. Saturday the storms look a bit quicker and uplift/dynamics a bit better to produce less rain but maybe more thunder if something develops.

Highs pressure will again build Sunday into Monday as High Pressure builds from the Canadian Maritimes, a bit more humid air but cooler as well. Next system likely Tuesday-Wednesday and this could be a nice bout of rain as a cold front moves through and an organized low tries to develop to the south of us and come north....lets wait and see what happens with this.

We need rain, right now we have had no measurable rain for this month, and in April ended with 71% of normal Precipitation. The Palmer Drought Index for our region is at -3 anomaly, and precipitation is 4" below normal for the period March through May 8th.

Have a great night guys!