*****SATURDAY 10pm UPDATE - WILD WEEK AHEAD GUYS, REALLY WILD*****

FIRST, Quick moving quick hitting THUMP of snow late tomorrow afternoon through Monday late morning. A small but somewhat potent system will move through the Ohio valley tonight into tomorrow and then across the area tomorrow evening throughout the night before moving out late Monday morning. NOW, alotta the weather sites saying 1-3" or 2-4" total...GUYS Sorry BUT NOT GONNA BE THAT WAY! Rain snow as well...Nope its gonna be all snow, MAYBE a bit of ice on the backside..

SECONDLY...Mesoscale Banding - VERY important in this storm, maybe more so then in other storms. The models are showing a large amount of southerly winds (flowing to the north) on the warm side of the Arctic air boundary...the models are showing this continue as the storm moves over us. WHERE the edge of this warm wind and cold air meet BOOM thats where we will really get that thumping. NOW the models cannot accuraterly depict this, so they are saying 4-6" (.4-.6" QPF), but wherever those bands set up could easily bring that up 4-8" or 6-10"...NOW, that could be high, Dillon and I think a safe thing to assume is 4-8" for almost all north of NYC...read map to see details

___________________

___________________

NEXT STORM...OMG so much to talk about this, but will wait until Monday to give all the details...Timing likely Tuesday night through Wednesday night maybe into Thursday morning but that could change. It would be Snow to ice to rain to ice to snow to all snow and could be a lotta snow if this holds up - models trending colder by the day! Goodbye brief warmup!

___________________
___________________

SOO.. still slowly creeping back to normal ISH temperatures in the next couple weeks, but the models are holding fast for below average temps at least next 40 days...soo we will keep you updated!
__________________
__________________

TONIGHT - Cold lows in low teens to around 10°, clear, but getting cloudy.

SUNDAY - Cloudy with light snow developing between 3-6pm changing to a heavier more steady snow during the late evening through the nighttime. Highs in the mid to high 20's. WATCH out for that thumping, talked about above in the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT - Snow, HEAVY at times with THUMPING possible, maybe changing to ice/sleet for a brief period at the end. The storm will be outta hear by lunchtime the LATEST in NYC, most likely between 7-9am.

MONDAY - Snow ending between 7-9am, highs in the low 30's

TUESDAY - Cloudy highs in the high 20's to low 30's...storm approaching at night, more on this later.

__________
HAVE A GREAT NIGHT

********WEDNESDAY EVENING 8:30PM UPDATE**********

Sorry about no update last night, Dillon and me were both very busy, and we did not feel there was enough to make a meaningful post. Its been a quiet week!

*****************

Feels warm past couple of days right! SLOWLY, ever so slowly we are trending (barely noticeable) back to "average" temperatures...Now the question is will we get back to Average or ABOVE average? At least in the next 2 weeks - We doubt it. Maybe a few small warm ups here and there for a couple hours...but overall models trending Below to WELL below average for the next several days, into the 2-3 week margin...maybe even through the next 45 days?

*****************

Many storms on the horizon, first big one would be Sunday to maybe Tuesday, likely Sunday night - Monday night. Right now Rain/ice to snow maybe back to rain or all snow...many details to workout too early too say much.

Tomorrow morning chance of light snow and some snow showers as a system passes to the south. Little to no accumulation for us.

*****************

TONIGHT - Lows near 10° progressively colder North and NW of NYC. Clear but becoming cloudy as the night goes on.

THURSDAY - Possible Light snow/snow showers (Most likely some flurries - BUT) No accumulations likely. Highs in the low to mid 20's.

FRIDAY - Highs in the mid 20's, some sun some clouds.

SATURDAY - Sunny highs near 30°, overall a pleasant day smile emoticon

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

********MONDAY NIGHT 7:30 PM UPDATE**********

I hope your vacations were great! I know I had a fabulous time in Jamaica! AND, Dillon and I ARE VERY HAPPY with our forecast for the weekend storm - WE KNEW it would be colder and snowier...fell right on target with what we said it would do!

****************

Absolutely the COLDEST air of the season (This time I am pretty sure it WILL be the coldest!) coming tonight into tomorrow - tonight's lows WILL LIKELY be in the NEGATIVES for almost everybody in New England/NE north of NYC. 

***************

Right now looking like we have dodged 2 possible snowstorms for this week, although there is still a possibility of them coming back west on the models - WE shall wait and see!

**************

Snow showers/Light snow possible Thursday night??? It is a possibility!

**************

BRIEF warmup next Monday? We could get up to 40 or above for a couple hours! ;) then back to cold! A possible storm as well in that time period early next week.

**************

TONIGHT - Frigid from -3° here in Irvington to possibly below -10° in parts of Western NY and New England. Clear.

TUESDAY - 7am Temps COULD BE -15° WITHOUT THE WINDCHILL! Then it will warm up to the balmy low to mid teens IF THAT MUCH. 

WEDNESDAY - Highs in the mid to upper 20's maybe a passing snow shower in the afternoon. Otherwise Partly cloudy/sunny.

THURSDAY - Chance of light snow/snow showers in the morning through afternoon and evening maybe into the night...Little or no accumulation at this point, Highs near 20°.

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

8:30 PM update Winter storm ON THE WAY! Bigger then you think!!

*********8:30PM UPDATE FRIDAY***********

First off, excuse the slightly messy map for the event this weekend, I am in Jamaica and do not have the same tools to use to make the maps. This one still works though.

***************

SHOULD WE SAY "MAJOR"? WINTER STORM HEADING OUR WAY? Guys, this system will be a whole lot more wintry then a lot of the public Weather websites are telling you. 

A very moisture filled disturbance will move up from the south and into the Ohio valley tonight into tomorrow. As it meets the EXTREMELY cold air that is already in place, we will see snow break out. The system will continue to move NE over us, most likely a good thump of snow Saturday evening into the night before changing over to a ice/sleet/snow mix Sunday morning and maybe some plain old rain. 

Now, even though as we said yesterday there is no reinforcing for the cold air already in place, there is a very hard press of Arctic cold air on the backside, so it may end as snow as well and not even changeover. Winds will turn southerly as the system approaches, so especially on the immediate coastal areas, warming up to the high 30's and maybe even 40º will be possible. Cold air damming which is being shown possible on the soundings and SKUV-T charts will help keep it an all snow event as well. 

SNOW WILL BE HEAVY, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT!!

I have prepared a map but it will not let me upload it from my iPad for some reason, so explanation below:

NYC, Long Island, Coastal Connecticut, Rhode Island, the Cape, all that area and just south of Boston - You guys will be a front end thump of snow over to sleet/ice and then plain rain. 1-3" of snow is probably a good bet for you. 

NYC Northern suburbs, basically along I287/I95 and North, as well as down to Philly and NW of Philly and NYC into Interior NY and Central New England, Maine - This will be a 3-6" storm, front end snow Saturday evening into Nighttime possibly changing over to sleet/ice/rain near the coast. THIS COULD EASILY GO UP TO A 4-8" OR MORE IF THE COLD TREND CONTINUES.

People in the Poconos, mountains of Virginia and West Virginia, 4-8" and localized 6-10" we think will easily be seen before any changeover if any at all.

ELEVATION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THIS STORM IN TERMS OF TEMPS AND CHANGEOVER/SNOW AMOUNTS.

Dillon and I are pretty confident though with what we are forecasting!

*********************

Although the Main Euro Model and GFS model have said goodbye to the possible storm for Tuesday/Wednesday, QUITE A FEW of the ensembles, not quite 25 of the 50 of them, but QUITE A FEW still have the storm on for us, so we will continue to watch this as it is still a possibility.

**********************

Brief warmup with the weekend storm, maybe reaching 40º in the city, then another Arctic blast for Sunday night. FLASH FREEZE!!! 

***********************

TONIGHT - Cold cold cold Lows near 0º, clear but getting partly cloudy.

SATURDAY - Cloudy with light snow developing between 3-5pm for most then getting heavier as the night goes on...HEAVY SNOW during the night, accumulations according to the map and description. Highs in the High 20's to right around 32º.

SUNDAY - Snow in the morning will changeover to a sleet/ice/snow mix midday before maybe ending as some plain rain or back over to all snow in the afternoon, Highs in the low to mid 30's. Snow accumulations according to map and description provided. FLASH FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ARCTIC HP COMES THROUGH.

MONDAY - Partly sunny Highs in the mid 20's

TUESDAY - Another possible storm coming in the afternoon? we shall see, otherwise Cloudy highs near 20º

*********************

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

Thursday EVENING update!!!!

******9PM THURSDAY UPDATE*********

Guys, Downright the most absolute coldest air (if that makes sense) coming into the region tonight into tomorrow. Of course if winter continues to act this way it will probably find a way to beat this...BUT for now, THE COLDEST. Friday DAY highs will STRUGGLE to reach 10º IF it gets that high, and the windchill will stay WELL into the negatives. THE WORST of the cold will be tomorrow morning, highs -15 to -20ºF. 


*******************

Storm for Saturday night into Sunday afternoon/evening is looking colder by the day on the models...we will see if this trend continues. The models have suppressed (flattened so to speak) the storm into a slightly weaker and more south east event, which is bringing more cold into the equation then if it was stronger and more west. This means more of an ALL snow or Snow to Ice/sleet maybe rain event. THE PROBLEM is there is no real blocking to keep the warmth out, and winds will shift to the South and help that warmth. On the backside however there will be a HUGE Arctic high - so flash freeze Sunday night is very possible.

RIGHT NOW, a general 2-4" for almost everybody north of NYC and not on the coast. BOSTON, you may miss this one in terms of snow - may be more of an ice situation for you...BUT we need to continue looking at the data. FIRST call will go out TOMORROW (FRIDAY night) with a map. 

*****************

ANOTHER possible (bigger?) storm that would most likely be ALL snow for Tuesday - Wednesday. Guys THIS COLD just does not wanna let up - at least for now.

*****************

TONIGHT - Cold and GETTING COLDER going well into the negatives by tomorrow morning. Lows near 0º tonight with Windchills -15 to -20º

FRIDAY - COLD and SUNNY. Highs MAYBE reaching 10º, NYC maybe a bit warmer as they will have a bit of a southerly wind component. As you get Inland and into Central NY windchills will be -30 to -40º!!! COLD! 

SATURDAY - Highs in the high 20's to around 30º. Light snow starting in the late afternoon/evening and continuing getting heavier during the night lasting all night. Lows AROUND 0-2º.

SUNDAY - to early to fully decide, but right now probably Snow turning to a sleet/ice midday maybe over to plain rain for a bit then ending as snow most likely. Highs in the low to mid 30's.  THIS HAS TO BE WATCHED, IT WILL LIKELY CHANGE. 


**************

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

7PM UPDATE TUESDAY!

****7PM TUESDAY UPDATE****

First! If SOMEBODY could PLEASE give me some estimates for how much snow fell Monday Night through this morning (Tuesday), that would be amazing!!!

SECONDLY...A bit of a quite rest of the week, except for most likely the absolute COLDEST air ever! GUYS, THE HIGH ON FRIDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BARELY REACH OVER 10º!!!

****************

A small disturbance (Norlon Trough?) will move through the area Wednesday night and give some light snow/snow showers. Accumulations of a coating to an inch if ANYTHING - BUT WE SHOULD WATCH THIS, IT DOES HAVE SOME POTENTIAL??

******************

Watching for a potential major storm this weekend - but could it be rain? I have a hard time believing this but lets see what the models do over the next 4-5 days!

******************

Cold just doesnt want to let up! Maybe the BEGINNING of March will bring a change? HINT HINT.....(MAYBE??)

*******************

TONIGHT - COLLD, Lows in the low teens to high single digits. Otherwise nothing much going on!

WEDNESDAY - Highs in the mid to high 20's, partly cloudy with maybe some light snow/snow showers developing in the evening/night time.

THURSDAY - Maybe some light snow in the morning giving way to cloudy skies highs near 20º

FRIDAY - FRIGIIDDDDD Highs around 10º, lows around -5º!!!! Partly Sunny/Partly Cloudy ish... Clouds moving in more towards the nighttime.

*****************

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

8 PM update Monday!

*********8PM UPDATE MONDAY NIGHT*********

Once again we will be on the edges of a storm, as this one gets "pushed" to the south by the Arctic High to the north giving us all this cold. Essentially what is happening is the low is physically not as strong as the High and therefore the Low cannot turn north as it usually goes because the Arctic High is there. 

Dillon and I feel the models have a very good handle on the situation, and so are putting out a minor snow alert for 1-3" AT BEST for NYC, WESTCHESTER and COASTAL CT, NORTHERN JERSEY..ETC The farther North from NYC you get the less snow. Southern LI might get 2-4" as the storm passes by. Mid Jersey also 2-4", and then Southern Jersey 3-6".

Dillon and I do NOT feel a snow map is needed, as the accumulations will be low, and the event quick.

TIMING - Late tonight (After midnight) and then into tomorrow morning maybe afternoon. Not really a heavy snow, more like a light consistent snow tapering off by lunchtime Tuesday. The HEAVIEST of the LIGHT SNOW will be during Rush hour tomorrow morning. 

TEMPERATURES STILL FRIGID GUYS, COLD COLD COLD, AND MORE COLD ON THE WAY!

*****************

Looking at another possible Storm for Sunday-Monday.

*****************
TONIGHT - COLD Lows in the low teens, windchills possibly reaching the negatives. Light snow arriving after midnight.

TUESDAY - Highs right around 20º, Light snow in the morning will clear out by lunchtime/early afternoon. TOTAL 1-3" At best. ALSO, you may see alotta snow on radar but NONE reaching the ground - the air is so cold and dry it might evaporate it all up. This is called Virga.

WEDNESDAY - Chance of some light snow in the evening, otherwise Highs near 30º, lows in the single digits. 

THURSDAY - ANOTHER Arctic Shot, Highs in the low teens and Lows near or below 0º. Sunny and windy as well.

**************

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

6:30 PM Sunday Update!

Hope you guys are all bundled up because it is FREEZING Out there!!! And do not expect it to get any warmer! We have a pretty dynamic situation right now with 3 possible storms in the next 10 days, the first of which will be this Monday night into Tuesday.

*********************

A Small but potent wave will move through the South tonight and tomorrow before forming into a Coastal Low tomorrow evening. NYC and areas north will be on the NORTHERN side of this storm, with the heaviest snows to the South in the Mid Atlantic (Southern PA, WV, Tennessee) THAT BEING SAID, We will hopefully still be getting a good amount off this storm, probably 3-6" for the rivertowns at the moment, but this could easily go UP or DOWN with any change in the storm track. 

BOSTON, Central New England...All those places that have been getting hammered, this is NOT your storm, Boston a general 2-4 maybe 3-5" for you guys is most likely, getting more as you get south. THEN AGAIN...WE COULD SEE THIS SHIFT NORTH!

FIRST SNOW MAP UP TOMORROW FOR THIS STORM.

************************

BRUTAL cold will continue, with lows tonight in the negatives without the windchill likely especially further inland. Winds will die down a bit tomorrow and ease up that windchill just a tad. Windchills TONIGHT well well into the negatives, -10 to -30º.

*************************

TONIGHT - Lows anywhere from -2 to 2º with windchill values well into the negatives -10 to -30º. Clearing throughout the night likely as well.

MONDAY - Partly Sunny but getting cloudier as the day goes on, Highs in the low teens maybe reaching 15-17º. Windchill values will lessen a bit as wind dies down. Light snow arrives at night, 1-3" likely.

TUESDAY - Snow likely, maybe heavy at times we still have some details to workout. Right now going with 3-6" storm total, NWS has 4-6" but this may be a bit high. Again, any change in track will change snow totals, so keep an eye out here for updates!

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!!

Morning update!

GOOD MORNING RIVERTOWNS!

Dillon tells me you guys got a good 8" is that true??! Right in our ballpark on the snow
Map - maybe even a bit under if so?

TODAY- WATCH OUT FOR THE WIND AND BLOWING SNOW! 50 mph winds have been observed and that denotes blizzard conditions! Be careful that also means windchill values in the negatives! Any snow should end, but wind and blowing snow will keep up.

Get ready for another storm tuesday!

Be back later with a formal update have a great day guys!

********FRIDAY NIGHT 6:45 PM UPDATE*********

FIRST OFF GUYS, The Rivertowns Enterprise was NICE ENOUGH to write an Article on Dillon and me, regarding our Weather pages and Science Research. If you get the Enterprise, PLEASE read the article! Just skip the forecast for this weekend, when we made it there was NO indication of a storm for tomorrow.

THANK YOU Enterprise, THANK you to all of you who support us! Continue to spread the word, and lets get these forecasts to more and more people!

*******************************
**********PLEASE READ THIS ALL, IT IS IMPORTANT - POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS STORM COMING***********

STORM for tomorrow - VERY TRICKY folks, but Dillon and me are VERY CONFIDENT with our forecast!

A clipper moving SE off of Lake Erie will transfer its energy to a developing coastal low which will then intensify greatly SE of Long Island and move NE of Nantucket tomorrow night before moving out Late Sunday night/Monday morning for New England.

When the Clipper transfers its energy, it will be doing so more or less over or just to the south of us...essentially the trough will be extended back and slow the system down a tad as it develops throwing back a bit more moisture over us then if this did not happen.

ONCE AGAIN, EASTERN LONG ISLAND, BOSTON, EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS, AND COASTAL MAINE - YOU GUYS ARE THE BIG WINNERS WITH THIS, HOWEVER, HOWEVER, NYC AND SUBURBS, WESTCHESTER, ETC...WE HAVE A CHANCE AT SOME REAL GOOD SNOW!

Here is the thing with this storm: We have FRIGID AIR IN PLACE. We will have winds 25mph with gusts to 40mph, especially in the coastal regions. We have PLENTY of snow on the ground, most of which is fluffy and not compacted down.

DILLON AND I BOTH KNOW THAT THERE IS NO WINTER STORM WARNING UP, BUT WE FEEL THERE SHOULD BE ONE FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS:

1. Blizzard Conditions ARE POSSIBLE during the night tomorrow.
2. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE DOUBLED OR MORE, MEANING THE 1-3" ON THE WEATHER CHANNEL CAN EASILY BE 3-6" AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE 3-6"+
3. FRIGID TEMPERATURES
4. Snow WILL be heavy at times during the night

(Am I glad I will be in Jamaica?)

******************************

ANOTHER Potent storm on the Horizon for Tuesday/Wednesday
More details later.

******************************

TONIGHT - Not as cold as last night but still frigid! Highs in the high single digits to low teens, Windchills could still get negative. Clouds will start to roll in as well.

SATURDAY - Snow showers in the morning will evolve into a steadier light snow through the evening, becoming HEAVY at times during the night. Winds will be HIGH guys, 25mph sustained with gusts to 40mph or more. Blowing snow, and FRIGID temperatures will give to possible Blizzard Conditions. Snow will CONTINUE throughout the night and end EARLY Sunday morning. Temperatures in the mid teens to low 20's during the day, and FRIGID during the night as another arctic shot comes through, lows in the single digits and windchill values in the negatives. SNOW RATIOS THROUGH THE ROOF!

SUNDAY - Snow ending early, winds will still be up there, windchill values possibly in the negatives especially in the morning. Clearing out throughout the day, maybe some sun by afternoon.

MONDAY - FRIGIDIDDDD Morning in the single digits to negatives, warming up to balmy low teens maybe.

TUESDAY - Another possible storm? More later on this

*********************************

ARTICLE POSTED BELOW. 

********6PM THURSDAY UPDATE********

BRUTAL, BRUTAL COLD COMING GUYS!! Highs tonight JUST ABOVE 0°, and around 5-10° in the City, plus winds gusting UP to 40mph will yield to windchills from -10 to -30°...LIKELY, real feel temps will stay around -15° TONIGHT, AND into TOMORROW as temperatures tomorrow BARELY get up to 15°, windchill's staying in the negatives.

GUYS, this means Frostbite in UNDER 5 minutes...KEEP JACKETS ON, KEEP GLOVES ON, BUNDLE UP IT WILL BE FREEZZZING!!!!

*************************

WINTER STORM Coming for Saturday Afternoon through to Sunday Morning. The STORM, PLUS WIND, PLUS THE FRIGID TEMPS WILL GIVE A DANGEROUS SITUATION, WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DURING THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY Out on Eastern Long Island, and Massachusetts, Boston, up through coastal Maine.

YES BOSTON...Another foot of snow heading your way!

GUYS, even with low(er) amounts of snow near NYC, the FRIGID temperatures will lead to 20:1 or more snow ratios...meaning the normal 3-5" becomes 6-10"+...THIS will EASILY Occur I believe.

Models have been trending a bit further SW today, and bringing the heaviest snows a bit closer...lets see if this continues, if not, an EARLY, GUYS EARLY, Estimate at snow amounts for NYC Metro area and Northern Suburbs is 3-6", which could EASILY become 6-12" with higher ratios if they hold.

************************

ANOTHER, More potent storm potentially coming for Tuesday, still early to tell specifics

************************

TONIGHT - FRIGID lows near 0°, windchills -10 to -30° even down to -40° as you get NW of NYC. Clearing out

FRIDAY - FRIGID, BRUTALLY COLD, Highs barely reaching 15°, Windchill factor well below 0°. Clear skies, windy 10-20mph

SATURDAY - Highs in the mid to high 20's maybe making it to 30°. Light snow developing in the afternoon and continuing heavier at night. Temps during the night getting colder to near 0° as another arctic blast comes through.

SUNDAY - Light snow in the morning ending likely, Highs FREEZING in the single digits to low teens. Cloudy and clearing up probably.

***GUYS, NOTE THAT THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND IS NOT FINAL AS THERE ARE STILL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT FOR THE STORM.***

********8:00PM UPDATE WEDNESDAY**********

Evening guys!!! Ok....weather changing ever day for us here in terms of whats on the models - so lets see whats going on!

- Clipper tomorrow will just be a glorified Arctic Cold front likely, as the low will pass to far to the North and it will be too dry. SO, as of now chance of snow showers and some light snow from midday through the evening and into the night possible. IF ANY accumulation, only a coating to an inch - but WILL likely be nothing big.

- Storm for the weekend still on the models, what has to be kept in mind is that it will be BRUTALLY COLD during that storm. SO, even if we only get the 3-5" that the models are saying - THAT COULD EASILY BE 6-12"+ WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THAT COULD VERY WELL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER, AND A BIG HOWEVER, I am not making a forecast here for this storm as I am seeing some things on the models that are making me believe it will be a bit different - just keep in mind it could very well be a big bad storm.

- ANOTHER storm showing up on the models for Tuesday of next week...still early to really tell whats going on, but something is there.

- Another possible system after that later in the week still

***********************

BRUTALLY cold temps coming Thursday and into the weekend AND BEYOND!! SERIOUS GUYS! COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON!

***********************

TONIGHT - Clear lows in the low to mid teens.

THURSDAY - Highs around freezing, cloudy with snow showers possible and maybe some light snow, a coating to an inch if anything. Winds will be gusty as the Arctic front slams through in the afternoon. BRUTAL COLD AT NIGHT, LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WIND CHILL IN THE NEGATIVES.

FRIDAY - Highs barely making it to the mid teens, windchill will be low too. Mostly sunny.

***********************

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT FOLKS!

**************9:00PM UPDATE TUESDAY NIGHT*************

SO...We got several events coming up! First one for Thursday, Likely will form too far to the East for anybody to get anything of big significance. Right now likely 1-3" Thursday afternoon through Friday Morning. WE WILL Keep you posted if this changes. First snow map tomorrow night for the event.

Second event for the weekend - still far out so nothing definite, but the models are definitely showing something forming that COULD be QUITE BIG if it forms right. Picture below showing it.

Third event would be Early to middle of Next week during our vacation. Still to early to tell anything more with confidence.

Fourth event would be later in the week after the third event. Again still early to say ANYTHING with confidence - for all we know it could not even happen.

***********************
EXTREME, AND I DO MEAN EXTREME COLD COMING FOLKS...Just to give you an idea - the models depicting temperature ANOMOLIES (So +/- of average) are saying on average the next 16 days and if not more will be -3 to -16° BELOW average!!! OR MORE!!

FIRST SHOT OF THE COLDEST AIR will be Thursday through the weekend. Folks, Lows in the negatives are possible and Highs in the single digits to low teens....get ready for the cold!!!

************************
TONIGHT - Cold and clear Highs in the low to mid teens, maybe 20° in NYC progressively colder as you get up to Boston and N/NW of NYC.

WEDNESDAY - Colder then today, Highs in the High 20's maybe low 30's, sunny.

THURSDAY - Mostly cloudy with light snow developing in the afternoon, Highs probably right below freezing. Snow will continue on and off through the night, most likely 1-3" with localized 2-4" possible.

FRIDAY - Maybe some light snow in the morning, then clearing out, COLLLDDD first SHOT of BRUTAL COLD AIR THURSDAY NIGHT! Highs BARELY REACHING 20° Friday. A Brisk wind will keep the windchills very low was well!!!

*************************

Have a great night guys!!

**********8PM Update Monday**********

Total snow for today was 2.9" - on the LOW side of our 2-5" Forecast, but still within that. Boston on the other hand, and areas around there - THEY are the winners. Approaching 6-7'+ of snow on the ground up there!!

*********************************

Rest of the night should start to clear out a bit, any light snow/sleet/ice will end by midnight. Temperatures will go down in the Highs teens/low 20's.

TOMORROW - Clouds will continue to clear out, Highs around freezing, WATCH for ice that may have formed overnight.

WEDNESDAY - Mostly Sunny, Highs in the High 20's to very low 30's.

THURSDAY - Next possible storm? Could evolve into a biggie, but for now 2-4" ish of snow late Thursday through Friday morning. Watch this carefully though because we could be in for a big storm.

Next storm after that would be for the weekend, and also could be a BIG one.

INTENSE, BRUTAL and coldest air of the season coming starting Thursday into the weekend. Highs could possibly barely reach the 20's, with lows well below 0°. We shall know specifics later, but seriously cold air coming.

********************************

Have a great night guys!!!

**********8:00PM UPDATE SUNDAY************

Guys, this is an extremely tricky storm to forecast - so bear with us. We are sorry for the lack of updates this weekend, we were both out of town and without computers - hard to do updates without them! ANYWAY, we are back so lets get to the weather!

****************************

This storm is NOT a big snowmaker for us, rather a much BIGGER Icemaker...We are ON that line as usual though, of the cold and more snow...So, 20-30 mile changes - EVEN LESS then that, COULD MEAN BIG changes for us.

***************************

TIMING - Freezing rain/sleet will break out tonight if not before midnight by midnight, continue through the morning and change over to snow late morning/midday. Light Snow will continue through the afternoon, probably not too heavy. Icing will continue as well mixing a bit with snow through the evening. It will change back to all snow and continue through Monday night ending between 1-4am or a bit before...generally very very early hours of Tuesday.

***************************

ACCUMULATIONS 

***************************

BIGGEST HAZARD - ICE ICE ICE....THERE IS A MUCH MUCH GREATER CHANCE OF ICE WITH THIS SYSTEM THEN LAST, BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD. GROUND TEMPS HOWEVER WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING - WE ALL KNOW WHAT HAPPENS THEN - IT FREEZES ON CONTACT.

With Snow NOT changing over until LATER in the DAY MONDAY, and temperatures not going BELOW freezing until AFTER MIDDAY, ICING WILL BE A VERY BAD PROBLEM for the Morning commute, and EVEN the Afternoon/EVENING commute which will be EVEN MORE dangerous as it changes back to a wet, sleety, icy snow.

****************************

Temperatures tomorrow will be JUST around or UNDER 32°, even into Upper 20's if we are lucky. North of I84, you will be mostly snow, even north of I287. Temperatures will begin to drop after lunchtime and continue dropping to low to mid 20's by nightfall - ANY Wet/melted ground will freeze up..on top of any ice that formed.

AGAIN, THIS IS NOT A BIG SNOWMAKER FOR US...MUCH MORE OF AN ICE MAKER - WHICH IS MUCH WORSE.

********5PM SATURDAY UPDATE*********

Ok, Dillon and I have both been out this weekend in DC and Boston, so it is hard to post - we will do short updates for the Sunday-Monday storm.

THIS STORM IS LOOKING A BIT LIKE LAST WEEKS STORM GUYS.

Models have been trending a bit south today, we shall see with the 18z runs if this holds true.

Right now heaviest snows again in eastern New England and interior NY. BOSTON could receive up to 2'!!!!!!!!!

TIMING - Late Sunday afternoon/evening into Monday night.

Accumulations - CANNOT MAKE A MAP NOW, SO- NYC and south to central NJ, 1-3" at best. SIGNIFICANT ice problem is possible. NYC To i287/ Briarcliff, 3-6" with 4-8" localized amounts - this follows through southern CT/northern PA along the border and providence RI. North of all this, 6-10" localized 8-12" amounts. Boston to Albany and north about 100-150 miles ish 12-18" localized higher amounts of 18-24".

ANY movement north or south even 20-50 miles will have HUGE impacts on temps and accumulations. 20-30 miles south puts US in irvington in the 6-10" range, 20-30 miles north and we get nada.

Icing will be a slight problem between NYC and I287 as well.

It's going to be a messy, icky storm, much like last weeks storm.

More updates later from either Dillon or I. 

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT! Any questions ask in the comments or pm me or Dillon.

*******7:15PM UPDATE THURSDAY********

Oki Doki, We got ALOT going on over the next week or so.

- Sunday through Tuesday storm is an over runner, meaning (And THANK you to the teacher who taught Dillon and me all this!) We have a a S/SW flow in the Jet, and cA (Continental Arctic) airmass Flowing East. This is the overrunning part as you get Cold air at the lower altitudes and warm air on top in the Upper Altitudes. We get Precip then, even though this is not a warm front. SO...THIS IS HOW OUR STORM WILL FORM ON SUNDAY-TUESDAY! Problem is, wherever that Cold Boundary sets up (N/S) will determine where the snows are. RIGHT now, it is setting up more or less just to the south/over NYC...meaning another huge battle between warm and cold, snow/ice/rain. We shall see where this goes, but I have a big hunch that the boundary will set up farther to the south and give us some more snow. A difference of 50-100, EVEN 25-50 MILES could make a HUGE difference for us - like the last storm.

More updates to come. At this point though, we are still getting a good amount of snow, mostly a steady light snow lasting 36 hours or more possibly.

***************************
-BRUTAL, and I mean brutal brutal cold coming this weekend...as you saw today temps dropped 20-30° for some from morning to now. This drop will CONTINUE and we will get DEEP into the negatives tomorrow morning with the windchill. Some places even -20° with windchill.

- COLD lets up a teensy bit, but barely and we go through the weekend still with very very cold temps. PEOPL, MORE COLD AIR on the way after this.

***************************

**************************FORECAST****************************

TONIGHT - Clear, Temperatures continuing to drop to about 4-6° in NYC to Westchester, 0-4° Northern Westchester and Rockland and Southern CT, then negatives as you get further North. Windchills NEGATIVE from -5 to -20° or less.

TOMORROW - COLDDDD in the morning windchill values in the NEGATIVES, warming up to the balmy High teens to VERY VERY low 20's

SATURDAY - Chance of some light snow in the afternoon, probably not much accumulation if any. Highs near 30° and cloudy.

SUNDAY - Light snow showers/snow developing afternoon/evening and continuing through the night, first part of the storm. More on this later. Highs in the mid to high 20's.

MAP SHOWING TEMPS WHEN WE WAKE UP TOMORROW MORNING PEOPLE - FRIGIDDDDD

*****QUICK 7AM UPDATE FOLKS******

While Data last night suggest a general 1-3" With the clipper, It now appears this is just off the table. As the clipper jumps its energy over the forming Coastal storm we will lose much of the precip.

SO, I would say ANYBODY FROM NYC AND UP TO Massachusetts - Likely a coating to an INCH. South of NYC, snow showers no real accumulation.***********************

FLASH FREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS DROP FROM NEAR THIRTY TO NEAR O° BY MIDNIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING.

********WEDNESDAY EVENING UPDATE**********

OK GUYS GOTTA DO A QUICK ONE - LOTS OF OTHER STUFF TO DO!

MORE DETAILED ONE TOMORROW!

ANYWAY!

- SNOW FOR TOMORROW ON THE WAY, HEAVY? NO! LIGHT FLUFFY STUFF, A GENERAL 1-3", MAYBE JUST MAYBE 2-4" IF..AND ONLY IF WE ARE LUCKY. 

TIMING - LATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON (LIKE LUNCHTIME) MAY BE A MESSY RUSH HOUR. 

************************

THEN THE BIG BIG BIG FREEZE...FOLKS YES, WE WILL GO FROM JUST AROUND 30° DURING THE DAY TOMORROW TO NEAR 0° AT NIGHT, NEGATIVE WITH THE WINDCHILLS...FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE FRIGID FRIGID, AS WELL AS THE DAY!!!

MORE COLD FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK COMING.
*************************

Rumors Going Around about a storm next week? WELL YES! The Models have been PRETTY INTENT AND CONSISTENT ON A LONG DURATION WINTER STORM From Sunday through Monday Night, maybe into Tuesday early early morning. Essentially what will happen is a storm will form on the edge of an Arctic front dropping down from Canada. Where this front is positioned will determine the heaviest snows, right now centered more or less over us, NY and parts of New England before a developing Coastal Storm moves up the coast and "merges" with our storm - THIS COULD BUMP UP SNOW DEPENDING ON WHEN AND WHERE THIS HAPPENS TOO!!

Another Possible Event for Next Thursday as well...but this is far out and not to worry about yet.

****MODEL UN FOLKS - GETTING SOMEWHAT WORRIED ABOUT OUR COMMUTE BACK SUNDAY IN TERMS OF THE STORM AND US DRIVING, MORE DETAILS TOMORROW.**********

SNOW MAP BELOW FOR CLIPPER...NOT REALLY MUCH TO SEE.

THANKS RYAN AT WEATHERBELL FOR THE MAPS - HE REALLY DOES AN AMAZING JOB as WELL AS EVERYBODY ELSE ON THE TEAM THERE! IF YOU WANNA LEARN ALOT ABOUT THE WEATHER AND GET AMAZING MAPS - GO TO www.weatherbell.com!!

*********TUESDAY EVENING UPDATIO********

AFTERNOON FOLKS, Hope you had a great weekend and fun snowdayyy :) Now get ready for more! ;)

BULLETINS:

1) Storm for Thursday/Friday which was supposed to be a combination of a clipper and Coastal storm forming will form TOO far East, leaving us with just a small clipper, 1-2" AT BEST FOR NOW. Everybody missing out on this storm - maybe the cape gets 3-6" thats it ***FOR NOW, THIS COULD CHANGE***

2) SUNDAY-MONDAY Still on the models as a potential major storm so keep an eye out.

3) RECORD cold coming over the weekend - if the models are correct SUBZERO temperatures possible WITHOUT the windchills

4) MORE storms on the horizon after Sunday/Monday System 

5) BRUTAL BRUTAL COLD ON THE WAY...REALLY 

**************FORECAST**************

TONIGHT - Clear highs in the low to mid teens.

WEDNESDAY - MAYBE OUR WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT WEEK? Warm front passing in the morning will spawn some Snow Showers, Not much accumulation if any, Highs reaching near or around 40° near the coast, and Mid 30's to HIGH 20's for the rest of the NE and New England..NOT FOR LONG THOUGH PEOPLE!

THURSDAY - Arctic Front on the move will plunge temperatures as the day goes on, Highs starting in the low to mid 20's will QUICKLY drop to teens and maybe single digits EVEN negatives by nightfall even down to the coast, BRUTAL COLD BY NIGHTFALL.!!!! LIGHT SNOW during the day on and off, ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH AT THIS POINT - THIS MIGHT CHANGE SO KEEP AN EYE OUT!!!! 

FRIDAY - COOLLDDDD BRUTAL COLD! Highs in the Single digits to MID/UPPER TEENS!!! COLD COLD COLD!! Partly Cloudy otherwise.

******IRVINGTON MODEL UN PEOPLES!!!, WEATHER WISE, LOOKING OK FOR NOW FOR OUR TRIP - BUT BUT BUT, COLD MAN IT IS GOING TO BE BRUTALLY COLD, WARMEST PROBABLY IN UPPER TEENS, BUT IT COULD GET DOWN WELL INTO THE NEGATIVES WITH THE WINDCHILL...PACK WARMMMLYYYY AND LOTS OF GLOVES. REMEMBER, THERE IS 4-5' OF SNOW PACK UP THERE - THIS WILL REFRIGERATE THE AIR, SO IT MAY BE COLDER THEN EVEN THE MODELS SAY. ************

*******MONDAY EVENING UPDATE ON WEEK AHEAD (WILD ONE?)*********

FIRST OFF, DILLON AND ME ARE VERY PROUD WITH HOW THIS STORM WORKED OUT AND OUR FORECAST - PRETTY MUCH SPOT ON. WE KNEW THAT COLD AIR WOULD STICK AROUND AND THIS STORM WOULD PRODUCE MORE SNOW THEN THE LIQUID STUFF THAT WE ALL HATE wink emoticon

SECONDLY - This next couple weeks COULD go down as the SNOWIEST two weeks for New England and parts of the NorthEast...if that gives you a hint at what is going on!
FLASH FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT! FOLKS TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DROP AND THE WINDS WILL PICK UP. ANY STANDING WATER, MELTED SNOW, UNTREATED SURFACES, ETC WILL FREEZE UP! BE CAREFUL DRIVING, WALKING, GOING OUTSIDE!
******- 3 POTENTIAL STORMS ON THE WAY FOLKS! FIRST ONE FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND THEN 2 MORE NEXT WEEK...AT THE VERY LEAST.********

We Still have details to work out with the storm for Thursday/Friday but KEEP YOUR EYES OUT for posts from us as we will have all the latest details!

TONIGHT - Temps falling to low teens/upper single digits for many and even down into the negatives North and NW of the City. Any snow showers will wrap up and end, skies gradually clearing.

TUESDAY - Highs in the LOW to MID 20's, I DOUBT we will reach 30°! WATCH FOR ICED UP SURFACES!!!! Partly cloudy, becoming sunnier as day goes on. WINDS will stay up there folks!

WEDNESDAY - Some Snow showers are possible during the day, Otherwise partly cloudy and Highs near 32°.

THURSDAY - Possible storm coming during the afternoon/evening into friday. STILL too early to really tell, more details tomorrow and Wednesday.

**********10:45 AM UPDATE ON WINTER STORM LINUS [#LINUS]*********

VERY VERY HAPPY WITH THE FORECAST THAT DILLON AND ME PUT OUT LAST NIGHT, VERY HAPPY. 7.58" SO FAR, NO RAIN YET JUST SLEET AND ICE AND SNOW. 

The storm ended up coming in a tad weaker and was not able to push that Arctic HP as much away, therefore cold air lasted longer.

SO WHATS NEXT?

We have a Secondary low trying to/succesfully ish forming off the Delmarva Peninsula (Well really between Jersey Coast and Delmarva) and THIS will drain some more cold air south and fuel a redevelopment of precipitation as the two fronts collide LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO...SLEET, ICE, SNOW will CONTINUE for the next few hours AND THEN a POTENTIAL HEAVY BAND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER LUNCH AS THE BACKSIDE OF ALL THIS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND and the Secondary low moves NE. 

REST OF TODAY - Snow/Sleet/Ice continuing and then turning back to an all snow solution after lunch for a TIME. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY. Additional accumulations of 1-4" ARE POSSIBLE as that heavy band comes through, WE WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
Temperatures in the High 20's in NYC to Low 20's in Westchester and PROGRESSIVELY colder as you get N/NW/NE of NYC. IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS - MORE OF A RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE.

FLASH FREEZE IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING, TEMPERATURES DROPPING 20-30° FOR SOME TO LOW TO MID TEENS OR UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. ALL STANDING WATER, MELTED PRECIP, UNTREATED ROADS, ETC WILL FREEZE

All precipitation will taper off this evening into nighttime and gradually clear by midnight.

PLACES SOUTH OF YONKERS, COASTAL CT, LONG ISLAND...YOU WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL COMPLETE MESS OF ICE ON YOUR HANDS AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP AND MOISTURE MOVES IN, PRECIP KEEPS FALLING. BE CAREFUL

Additional Snow accumulation map below.

ANY QUESTIONS? IF SO POST IT BELOW IN THE COMMENTS OR MESSAGE ME OR DILLON.

********11PM UPDATE ON WINTER STORM [LINUS?]*********

Snow Has started moving into the area, the ACTUAL system still WAY back in Western PA. The storm looks to be tracking a TAD south of what was thought - GOOD for snow lovers. Models continued to trend south a tad as well, only like 5-10 miles...but any trend is a good trend south.

IT WILL STILL be a close call with rain/snow line - WE ARE EXPECTING A POTENTIALLY SERIOUS ICE SITUATION FOLKS! Looks like at this point we cannot get out of that! UP TO A HALF AN INCH of Ice COULD ACCUMULATE ON TOP OF 5-8" OF SNOW! BE CAREFUL FOLKS!

So, Looking like a GOOD 6-9 hours of SNOW before we start thinking about changing over to wintry mix.

PERSONAL OPINION FROM DILLON AND I - BAD IDEA FOR SCHOOLS ON TWO HOUR DELAY, GOING TO BE VERY VERY ICY AND BAD ROADS/CONDITIONS TOMORROW. LETS HOPE THEY CHANGE THEIR DECISION.

BACK TOMORROW MORNING WITH UPDATES.

STILL HANGING ONTO SNOW ACCUMULATION MAP FROM BEFORE.

************************************************************************

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast.php

*****5:45PM WINTER STORM UPDATE FOLKS ITS COMING FOR US!!!*****

Remy and I have been following the storm all day long, and we have a few minor changes in the forecast. Snowfall amounts, posted in the map below by Remy, are mostly the same as before, but what has changed for the WORSE is the ICE. SIGNIFICANT ICING is now likely in the lower and mid Hudson Valley, Northern New Jersey, and Southwestern Connecticut. Ice accretion in these areas will range from 1/4"-1/2", which is very dangerous for travel. North and south of the these areas, ice accretion will range from .10"-.25".

The storm, which up until the 18z run had was trending north, trended slightly south again on the last run, meaning slightly higher snow accumulations which will be reflected in the snow map. The storm, however, has also strengthened more than expected leading to an increase in the ice forecast
as well.

The heaviest of the snowfall will occur between 11PM and 5AM tonight, when snowfall rates may approach 2" per hour. Between 5AM and 8AM, the snow will mix with and/or change to sleet and freezing rain from south to north and continue until about 3PM when it will change back to light snow. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS POSTED ON MAPS BELOW, SORRY FOLKS, SOUTH OF NYC THIS IS NOT YOUR STORM! - NEW ENGLAND - DOUBLE WHAMMY!!!!
Do not take this storm lightly folks. If you are going to a Super Bowl party tonight, try to be home before midnight.

IF ANYTHING CHANGES WE WILL PROVIDE UPDATES AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE, ENJOY THE SUPERBOWL AND STAY SAFE FOLKS!!!

*********************QUICK Sunday Afternoon Update!**************

The GFS and the NAM have continued their northward trend since yesterday, meaning that there is the chance of less snow and more mixed precipitation especially during the height of the storm on Monday. However, this means SIGNIFICANT ICING is becoming increasingly likely, which is much worse than an extra few inches of snow. For now, though, Remy and I will keep our forecast from last night and will re-post the snow/ice map we made yesterday as the European and Canadian models from midnight are sticking with significant snowfall for the area. Based on some of the data right now, the GFS and the NAM may be too warm with the storm, and they might head towards a solution closer to the European and Canadian models later in the day. Our current snowfall map is more of an average between the four models. We will follow this storm throughout the day and post again later on this afternoon around 5:00 PM when the next model runs come in.

Here is yesterday's snow map, which (for now) still applies: