********TUESDAY NIGHT FORECAST/DISCUSSION, UPDATES ON WINTER STORM FOR WEEKEND...BIGGIE!***************

-POTENTIAL FOR A [BIG?] WINTER(Y) Type storm coming onto the short term models for this weekend, Saturday Night through Sunday night...maybe just maybe into Monday morning. DETAILS BELOW
- Tug Hill area off of Lake Ontario, Watertown area - LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. I would Not be surprised if you guys see anywhere from 1-2 feet or MORE in the persistent bands. So ENJOY IT, IF YOU ARE A SNOW LOVER...I WISH I WAS THERE I KNOW THAT!

- The Euro models AND the GFS are hinting at a MAJOR COLD SHOT in the 6-10 day period from now, I am talking 25+ degrees below average, possibly having a 0* day in NYC...I AM NOT SAYING THIS WILL HAPPEN, HOWEVER, IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE OUT THAT A BIG COLD SHOT MAY BE COMING...
**********WINTER STORM DETAILS for the Scenario I deem likely AT THIS POINT*******
STEP #1 Energy from the storm that will be affecting the Midwest and parts of the West Coast on New Years will move across the country while another area of low pressure that will bring some snow to the Northern Plains and North West drops down to the great lakes. THESE TWO SYSTEMS MERGE, and form what we weather weenies call "Lake Cutters" Basically the system will cut across the lake, and gather moisture, intensifying greatly...

STEP #2 The storm will LIKELY take this more NORTHERLY track (Although I think it will be further south, MORE COLD) and Consequently, as it moves through the area, it will suck in warm air from the south. SO AGAIN, ALONG THOSE COASTAL REGIONS...WATCH OUT IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE A MORE WET THAN SNOWY STORM, MORE ICEY TOO....HOWEVER:
1. As the storm makes its way through the area, it will bring in the warmer air from the south, however for a brief period of time..SO, even if it does get up to LOW 40's during middle of day, the storm will still be around later AND there will be PLENTY of cold air aloft for it to deal with - therefore, I think we are in for a more snowy event then we think....BUT...lets stick to more rain for now.

STEP #3...The system will move out of the area by Sunday night, leaving us MUCH colder as it brings in the cold air behind it. 

GUYS, I AM VERY WORRIED ABOUT THIS SYSTEM...The models are treating it as basically a "FRONTAL" system moving through the area, like a cold front...BUT IT IS NOT THAT! FURTHERMORE, the models are trying to "tear" the system apart as it moves through Western New York because of the INTENSE High pressure to the north of the system...I DO NOT THINK THIS WILL HAPPEN, AND THINK THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK and CONSEQUENTLY be a colder storm for everybody.

One thing of IMPORTANCE, and of great interest...The NAO, which many people look to when they want to know when cold may be coming is NOT TO BE TRUSTED RIGHT NOW.... Last couple of weeks we had unusually HIGH temperatures and the NAO went NEGATIVE (Usually goes POSITIVE for Warmer Temps)...NOW we are getting colder and the NAO is going POSITIVE!...So, wacky things going on! Lets wait until mid February before we look at it as an Indicator of Warm/cold. 
OK ENOUGH BLABBER RIGHT NOW!

*********************FORECAST****************************

TONIGHT - COLLDDDD in the low 20's to High teens in the Northern Suburbs and interior NY...Along the coast a tad warmer. Clear, maybe some passing clouds.

WEDNESDAY/NEW YEARS EVE - Highs JUST about Freezing, again colder to the North and interior NY, warmer along the coast, sunny...a slight wind.

THURSDAY - Around the same temps, windy

FRIDAY - A TAD warmer, in the mid 30's, Sunny still windy.

PICS EXPLAINING THE WHOLE THING!

HAVE A NICE NIGHT FOLKS! And a HAPPY NEW YEARS!

*******SUNDAY EVENING WEATHER DISCUSSION******

OKI DOKI we have a bunch of things going on right now in the weather world, especially with this [hopefully the last] pattern change to set us into a hard core locked in winter.

- First cold shock to come over the next week and will push our temps back down where they belong in the low to mid 30's by the end of the week, maybe reaching 40*. The REAL cold shock comes towards the beginning/middle of next week with a Huge Continental Polar Air mass...so look forward to those cold temps coming back!

- SIN CITY - YES YOU! Snow is heading your way! middle of this week! Now, how does this relate to us over here on the east coast? Because what starts in the west ends in the east, and this is a very strong system, so how that energy travels over the US will dictate a possible storm for next weekend! Right now things are very iffy with this energy, so keep an eye out, COULD BE SNOW?!

- Calm week more or less after Monday Night for us folks here along the majority of the Eastern Seaboard, High pressure will build to the South of us and over us, give for a good amount of sunny colder and progressively colder days. 

//////////////////////////////Very Nice picture Below explaining the Origins of Air Masses and how they affect us!\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

*******************FORECAST********************

TONIGHT - Lows in the mid to low 30's pretty much up the entire coast.

MONDAY - Highs in the Low to mid 40's, progressively colder North and West of NYC, warmer along the coast. Sunny.

TUESDAY - Highs in the low to mid 30's, again progressively colder North and West of the City as the core of that initial cold front moves through. Sunny, a bit of wind

WEDNESDAY - Highs just about near freezing, Sunny.

Friday Night update, Forecast and Discussion

LONNNGGG time no see! Sorry about the lack up weather related updates...was on vacation up in Quebec skiing and did not have time or my computer to make these forecasts!. SO...first things first a few notes.

- You WILL NOT be seeing any more maps from the European Models on the blog or this weather page, at least for now unless I can figure something out. The Euro license that the site I get the maps from has prohibits me from copying the images to show you guys...SO, I will still talk about them, but for now no maps.

-PLEASSSE.. If you have not already, go take a look at our blog! Every post is the same, but we can do much more with how the posts look, and pictures...overall giving you a better experience. So head on over to weatherinthehud.blogspot.com and SUBSCRIBE!

- MILD weekend! The Polar vortex is reorganizing itself, and as well thanks to a POSITIVE NAO (partially) the Jet stream will favor a more northern POSITION allowing High pressure to build over the area and let in mild air from the gulf. 

- The AMOSPHERE IS IN A HUGE TRANSITION PHASE right now...what I believe, going through the models, and what many other people are looking at right now is a return of the pattern we saw in November, the cold and storminess...but more winter still...SO, Over next 2 weeks let this pattern sink in and then I am still a firm believer in that winter will take hold...to many things telling me to think otherwise at the moment.

**********FORECAST****************

TONIGHT - MILD, comparatively. Lows in the High to mid 30's. 

SATURDAY - EVEN WARMER, Highs near 50*, partly sunny...few clouds here and there.

SUNDAY - We get sort of tricky here...will a wave develop off the coast for Monday and give us some snow? We will have to see.. For now Highs in the mid 40's, cloudy with some showers on and off. 

COLD COMES SUNDAY NIGHT.

Have a great day folks!

Thursday Evening Discussion and Forecast - Important on next week storm(s)??

FIRST FEW POINTS

- As Of now looks like we have dodged a bullet with the Sunday storm. The main piece of it, the energy that was shown dropping from the North just wont be there and hence will not drop south, and a storm will not really form for anybody. SO, OFF THE TABLES FOR NOW...STILL A CHANCE FOR SOMETHING THOUGH SO KEEP AN EYE OUT!

- Christmas storm VERY tricky right now, but looks like a MASSIVE system...When all 10 Ensemble members of the Euro have a 964 Low forming...thats Bombogenesis right there, you know something BIG will likely happen. Who gets what, where, when exactly is not completely known yet, but lets keep an eye out for this one AS WELL.

- Pattern change coming, I am still confident we will lock into winter after Christmas. Of course the way the models are behaving anything could happen...but lets stick with the idea that after Christmas we go into more of a winter winter mode. Remember, for those snow lovers.., Historically December is not a snow maker of a month, and we on the East Coast USUALLY get the BIGGEST SNOWS January - early March when the cold is really set in - so give it some time, it will come!

- MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE RIGHT NOW....EVERY RUN THEY CHANGE COMPLETELY...SO, DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF YOU SEE ALOT OF CHANGES IN THE FORECASTS WITH THE BIG STORMS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THEM.

**************FORECAST**************

SHORT FORECAST TONIGHT AS SUNDAY AND PAST IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

TONIGHT - Lows near 30*, lower up in the Highlands, to the NW. Along the coast up through Boston a little warmer. Clearing out.

FRIDAY - Highs in the mid 30's. Mostly sunny, a slight breeze will continue.

SATURDAY - Highs in the mid 30's again, mostly sunny, getting cloudy during night probably.....still uncertain. 

HAVE A GOOD NIGHT FOLKS!

********MONDAY EVENING DISCUSSION***********

FEW POINTS OF DISCUSSION

-The Possibility of a potentially major storm is VERY MUCH in the realm of possibility for Saturday night into Sunday night (20-21st). SO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSTS COMING FROM HERE, WE WILL HAVE THE LATEST UPDATES.

- AO/NAO/EPO/WPO/PNA ALL TANK AROUND 24TH-26TH SO IT SEEMS, WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? WELL ESSENTIALLY THAT WINTER WILL REALLY BE LOCKING IN - COLD, STORMINESS...MUCH LIKE THE PATTERN BACK IN NOVEMBER, BUT MORE SUSTAINED AND STORMY.

- ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM, YES, Right on the heels of the possible Saturday-Sunday Storm we get ANOTHER for Christmas...Details still vague but the possibility, again DEFINITELY there!!!

- THE BLOCKING we have been waiting for (or at least I have) will begin to set up between and after the Sunday and Christmas storms, coinciding with the Oscillations/Teleconnections tanking! 


***********************FORECASTIC FORECAST**********************

TONIGHT - Highs in the HIGH 20's, clear

TUESDAY - Partly Cloudy skies over to all cloudy w/ showers developing in the evening and changing over to all rain in the night, MAYBE a bit of freezing sleet/ice for a bit but I am doubtful. Highs in the mid 40's, lows in the HIGH 30's. Areas in Northern NY, Southern NE...maybe even Boston could see some snow showers/light snow on the backside.

WEDNESDAY - BIG WARMUP! HIGHS NEAR 50*, Partly Cloudy

THURSDAY - Highs back down to high 30's, sunny.

FRIDAY - Highs low to mid 30's, sunny.

WILL GET TO WEEKEND LATER!

PICTURES

- EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE CONTROL RUN OF TOTAL SNOWFALL, IN NO MEANS A FORECAST JUST A GUIDE TO THOSE WHO COULD SEE SNOW. ENSEMBLE MEAN RUN ALSO INCLUDED

- EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MSLP MAP FOR THE POSSIBLE SUNDAY STORM.

Saturday Evening Discussion and FORECAST Updates

*******************ONCE AGAIN FOLKS - VERY VERY BUSY TIME FOR WEATHER THESE NEXT FEW WEEKS, AND A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN.**************************

I know most of you do not generally like to read all the nuts and bolts technical information that I have to go through and look at to make these posts, but I REALLY wanted to share with you a few technical things that I think are interesting, and you might want to know, that have to do with the current weather and what I believe will begin to set in for the winter. So if you wanna learn something new, read! If not, skip ahead to the bottom where the Forecast is.

Among MANY things that control our weather, and climate are some things called NAO/AO/PDO/AMO/EPO/WPO/PNA...These are different Teleconnections and Oscillations that essentially measure Air pressure, and Sea Surface Temperatures at different regions around the world. In the winter, what generally happens, is the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillations) and AO (Arctic Oscillations) favor negative trends. Negative trends favor COLDER conditions across much of North America, and therefore, when the NAO/AO are negative, you can almost surely bet we will be seeing cold air that correlates with when they go negative. to put briefly what happens when the NAO goes negative, is we get whats called Blocking in the atmosphere to the NE of us over New Foundland, and a Huge Ridge (Area of positive pressure) over Greenland (Sometimes Called Greenland Blocking). We also usually see a ridge over the Gulf of Alaska. With this setup, we see low pressure more prevalent over the USA...hence the storminess. What this allows is for the Jet stream to dip down into the USA, and that allows that COLD arctic air to dive south. When the AO goes negative, we also end up with a very similar situation, though usually more LOW pressure over Greenland.
NOW, for this winter, what is interesting is how the PDO fits into all of this. The PDO are Pacific Decadel Oscillations, and this is basically measures of SST's in the Pacific Oceans. Without getting to much into details, the PDO usually exists in 30 year cycles of Warm and cold. Currently, and since about 1978 we have been in a warm cycle. What this means is warmer waters around Alaska and west coast, colder Water in the middle of the Pacific north of 20* N Latitude. It also favors more El Ninos (We are in a weak El Nino Right Now). Usually though in a Warm cycle, After the first 10-15 years, it begins to turn colder. A Warm PDO ALSO favors More Atlantic Hurricanes (LOOK AT SANDY) that make landfall, and MORE GREENLAND BLOCKING, WHICH LETS IN THAT COLD AIR AND MORE SNOWSTORMS.

SO, For this winter, to sum it all up, the pattern really starts to LOCK in around Christmas this year so it seems, with the AO/NAO..etc. starting to go Negative hinting and more SUSTAINED COLD. Warmer then Average SST's in the Atlantic will diminish, and blocking will begin to setup over Greenland (sustained) and Gulf of Alaska allowing that cold air in. The Jet stream will feature a more N-S Split of the two then usual, which will continue to allow for more of these Nor'Easters to form because it carries and allows them to form in the Gulf and ride the coast up. AS I SAID WEEKS AGO, I still believe, that ONCE this winter locks in, and that pattern is set - we will be IN winter for a while and locked in.

SO, JUST SOME TECHNICAL INFO ON OUR CLIMATE. THIS ALSO HAPPENS TO BE WHAT DILLON AND I ARE STUDYING IN SCIENCE RESEARCH, AND WE HAVE THE GREAT PRIVELAGE TO WORK WITH Joe D'aleo who was a founder of the Weather Channel, and professor, and is a leading meteorologist in the world and expert on this type of stuff. So, IF ANYBODY HAS QUESTIONS - ASK AWAY!
PS - I HAVE ATTACHED AN IMAGE EXPLAINING WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT - NOT MY IMAGE, IT IS FROM JOE D'ALEO'S AWESOME PAPER!

******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

NOW ONTO THE WEATHER!

VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER COMING UP - Right off the bat, we have POTENTIALLY THREE Systems to come THROUGH THE AREA between now and Christmas.

-1ST Low Pressure Forms out in midwest from the mess left over from the storms that hit the West Coast. RIGHT NOW, it goes over the Great lakes, sorta gets diminished and reforms once well away from us, but there is ALOT of other things involved with this, and I have a feeling we may get a bit more of it then we think right now. As of now though, just some showers from it Tuesday afternoon/Night.

-2ND Possible Nor'Easter SUNDAY-MONDAY of next week, this could be a snow maker, but it is still to early to tell...IT MUST BE WATCHED THOUGH, as the Pattern WILL BE SETTING IN FOR COLDER AIR TO BE DOMINANT AND CONSISTENT.

-3RD CHRISTMAS! YES, THERE IS A POSSIBLE SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT US ON CHRISTMAS...So, it is still over 10 days out so HARD to tell, but the POSSIBILITY IS THERE. Must ALSO be watched!!!!!!!

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TONIGHT - Lows near 32*, clear...not much going on
SUNDAY - Highs high 30's, to low 40's...colder inland and North as you get into Boston Area, Sunny.
MONDAY - Sunny, Highs near 40*
TUESDAY - Sunny then turning Cloudy, Highs in low 40's. Rain Showers in afternoon - evening, will clear out during the night.
WEDNESDAY - BRIEF WARMUP, Highs mid to HIGH 40's, Mostly Cloudy though, maybe some sun peeking through as system exits to the East.
THURSDAY - COLDER, Highs barely reaching high 30's, stuck in Low to MID 30's. Sunny.
FRIDAY - Highs just about at freezing, 30-33*, Sunny.

Have a nice night folks!

*****QUICKIE MORNING STATEMENT*********

Snow showers will continue on and off throughout the morning, looks like we have a fairly decent band of them coming through so do not be surprised to see it falling..

SNOW SHOWERS WILL STICK TO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY/CT/MASS, so probably not much going on North of Poughkeepsie if anything, Boston will have SUNNY skies today!

ANY accumulations should be less then an inch, most likely just continuance of a dusting scenario.

Highs today in the mid 30's, cloudy.

HAVE A GREAT DAY!

Wednesday Night FORECAST + DISCUSSION + Next week Storm? West Coast Deluge

Lemme try and be brief tonight, but FIRST...SHAMWOWZA...Syracuse and Ithaca Area, up in the hills around there being SLAMMED! Some places up there have recorded a FOOT so far and blizzard conditions continue, especially as you get CLOSER to the lakes and start getting into the Lake effect snow (Not AS pronounced because the winds not IDEAL) ANYWAY, within the next couple of days I will post storm totals for snowfall/rain/ice from this WINTER STORM, which by the way was named DAMON. 

NOW, Forecast discussion:

TONIGHT - Still seeing the chance for more snow in the area, ESPECIALLY as you get NW of NYC (WAY NW)...and somewhat North. Do not see any significant accumulations, maybe 1" at BEST. Lows in the low 30's, winds still up there.

THURSDAY - Cloudy, chance of snow showers especially in the morning as the system FINALLY begins its way out. Highs in the mid 30's, colder as you get inland and NW...Along the coast look for slightly warmer temps mid to high 30's, up through the Mass/Boston Areas. Interior NY into the mountains will see highs mid 20's to LOW 30's.

FRIDAY - Storm moves out, HIGH pressure begins to take over the area, MOSTLY sunny skies highs in the mid 30's all the way up the coast, maybe in low 40's around the Cape...maybe 40* in Boston along the water. Interior NY still stuck in the 20's. 

Getting interested in our NEXT possible storm (Nor'easter maybe???) for next week, towards the end of the week probably....Energy exiting to the SW of California will catch the Southern Jet and move Eastward where it either goes out to see or follows up the coast - WE SHALL SEE!

IN THE MEAN TIME, LETS LET AND PRAY THAT ENERGY REALLY STAYS AROUND THE WEST FOR A WHILE AND EASE THE DROUGHT! Could be one of the strongest storms in a DECADE for them! San Francisco, LA, Sacramento and pretty much ALL of Cali in for a BIG deluge!!!!! In addition Cali Ski Slopes could be seeing a FOOT PLUS of the white stuff!

HAVE A NICE NIGHT FOLKS!

NAM Total Rainfall by Sunday

The Snow has started!

AND HERE WE GO, BLACKLASH SNOW COMING IN!

Snow should stay as a wintry mix/light snow until evening before changing over to all snow, TOTAL Accumulations not more then 3" Most likely 1-3", REALISTICALLY 2" AT BEST FOR ANYONE SOUTH OF MAHOPAC/PUTNAM VALLEY/BREWSTER. NORTH OF THESE AREAS, 1-3"+ IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 

Temps will stay steady in mid 30's, dropping to near 30* tonight.\

QUICK Morning Update on some SNOW today!

Latest data shows A BETTER chance for a 1-3" accumulation of snow for today/tonight into tomorrow for the 2ND HALF of the Nor'Easter.

Rain and Snow will develop with morning and change to ALL snow in the afternoon, probably a LIGHT 1-3" IF WE are Lucky, although the data says we are, there is still uncertainty with this....SO JUST A HEADS UP!

Have A GREAT DAY!

Tuesday Evening Update and Discussion on Storm

TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE/DISCUSSION


NOW, ONTO THE STORM - In terms of the models, THERE WERE ALOT of problems with this storm, and its complexity and size...the MAIN issue was the warm air. None of the models saw it coming (Except the NAM) and what "it" was, was the fact that the storm was able to bring that warm air ALL the way north past Albany, West to Ithaca, and North to Portland, ME...This created a much bigger rain/ice event then expected, AND cut down those snow totals for many areas. Storm ALSO shifted EAST, causing the heaviest precip to move more OVER US, instead of Interior NY, NJ, and west of us.

SO, Otherwise, however, the system behaved as expected - NOW, WE STILL HAVE 2/3 MORE DAYS OF IT....ON AND OFF.
Now, I am happy that I can say I pointed this out a week ago when the storm initially came onto the models, and Dillon and I were in agreement with this, even as the system came through today - The REAL cold air (High Pressure System) would come on the STORMS heels, and behind it - not interact with it enough to cause a real SNOW event down here.

NOW, this IS HAPPENING! the Center of low pressure will use its self to form another low and swing back around in basically a circle over NY and New England - SO, NEW PRECIP FORMS, we get that moisture from the system interacting with that COLD air coming south, and PRESTO! BOO YA! Rain and Snow arrives tomorrow after a break in the precip today. I DO NOT EXPECT MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS, MAX 1-3" IN HIGH ELEVATION AREAS, BUT DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND!

NAM 18z 850hPa showing temps invading (Blue/grey is COLDEST)

SO, FORECAST

TONIGHT - A LULL IN PRECIP, CLOUDY SKIES w/ some showers AS THE ORIGINAL LOWS SPINS UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. Some Rain/Snow/Sleet may still stick around in the Taconic Hills, Catskills, Putnam County up there South of Albany. Lows in the mid 30's...Winds 10-20mph

WEDNESDAY - Rain and Snow showers throughout the day, low to mid 30's. Winds back up there 20-30mph FOLKS up north of OSSINING WILL HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE AT THE SNOW ACCUMULATING 1-3" OR MORE.

FLOOD WARNING STILL UP AS RAIN MAY GET HEAVY TOMORROW!

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - CLOUDY, SOME RAIN/SNOW LINGERING CLEARING OUT LATE. Lows near 30*....

THURSDAY - Some lingering snowshowers in the morning possible, then cloudy as the storm moves out Highs in the mid 30's

FRIDAY - Partly sunny, storm will begin to move out finally Highs in the mid 30's.


HAVE A NICE NIGHT FOLKS!!!

NAM MSLP+PRECIP, showing reforming of the Low.

Heavy rain moving North! - Morning Update

*********HEAVY RAIN, SOME ICEY RAIN MOVING NORTH, SNOW ON THE HORIZON*******

As the storm spins north it will tighten and intensify, and then stall over us the afternoon/evening. Expect heavy rain to continue, and some icey rain as well. Do not be surprised if some wet flakes fall as well! 

Getting more confident on a spread of snow wednesday night into thursday morning as the system loops around and the center of pressure reforms. MORE ON THIS LATER!

Folks to the North, in Putnam, up the taconic and into the catskills, DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT IS SNOWING, and POSSIBLY accumulating - this is a very elevation dependent storm!

Have a great day folks!

Monday Evening Update and Discussion - FULL ON STORM MODE GUYS

OK GUYS WE ARE IN FULL ON STORM MODE
A MAJOR NOR'EASTER WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY EARLY MORNING.

Now, for the forecast! GUYS, AGAIN THERE IS A BUST POTENTIAL WITH THIS STORM, THIS FORECAST IS BASED OFF THE LATEST DATA AVAILABLE TO US, SO LOOK OUT FOR UPDATES!

*****FOR THE BULK OF THIS STORM, THE STORM WILL BE BRINGING TO MUCH WARM AIR OFF THE OCEAN TO ALLOW FOR REAL SNOW, HOWEVER, AND THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT
THE AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE, WILL BE VERY COLD, AND THEREFORE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS MAY NOT HAVE TIME TO MELT IN THE WARMER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, GIVING THE HUGE POTENTIAL FOR ICE, SLEET, AND MAYBE SNOW - SO WATCH OUT, ESPECIALLY DEPENDING ON WHEN THE PRECIP GETS HERE TONIGHT!

TONIGHT - Rain Developing LATE, AND VERY LIKELY MIXING WITH ICE...Lows in the low 30's, a Northeast wind 10-20mph will bring in that cold air as well. 

TOMORROW (TUESDAY)- ITS SHOW TIME, HEAVY RAIN spreads throughout the morning and into the nighttime as the Center of the storm approaches and MAKES THAT CLASSIC SANDY LIKE HOOKED LEFT TURN INTO THE COAST!!! I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE GET WET, HEAVY FLAKES, SOME ICE AND SLEET mixed in, as the air in the atmosphere will certainly be cold enough for the precip to not have a chance to melt possibly on the way down. Highs in the mid 30's, Winds 20-30mph possibly gusting up and over 40mph from the Northeast-NorthWest.

TUESDAY NIGHT - Rain will continue, start to let up, chance of some snow MIXING in, I do not think there will be much accumulation. Temps in the low to mid 30's.

WEDNESDAY - Rain showers/Steady light rain on and off. What is happening is the Low is going to reform around the center of low pressure and loop/pinwheel back around giving a second round of precip. NOW, it looks like it will get that COLD air more readily, and not the warmer ocean air, so WATCH OUT FOR SNOW MIXING IN. Temps again mid 30's Winds 10-20mph

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - Rain and Snow Showers/sleet/ice maybe. Temps near 30* Winds 10-15mph diminishing.

*****GUYS NEAR THE COAST, EXPECT BEACH EROSION AND GALE FORCE WINDS, FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS*********

HAVE A GOOD NIGHT FOLKS!

WIND GUST MAPS - GUYS THAT 40-50MPH GUSTS IN OUR AREA!

STORM TRACK

EUROPEAN SNOWFALL OUTPUT - LIKELY TO CHANGE

Welcome to Weather in the Hud with Remy Mermelstein and Dillon Palmieri!

Welcome! Dillon and I have created this blog as another way for you to get our forecasts, discussions, maps and pictures and expand our horizon beyond Facebook. Our posts will be the same as on Facebook, and will include everything that we do on our FB Page. If you are new to us, you can go look at previous and current posts on our Facebook Page which can be found HERE. We will also begin the process of making a formal website soon, so look forward to updates about that. 

In addition to welcoming you to our new blog, I think it is a good idea to provide some background on who we are, and why you should listen to us about your everyday weather, as well as longer term weather and climate.

Remy (Me) - I am 16 and in 10th grade at Irvington High School in Irvington, NY. My love for weather has been around all my life, starting with my absolute obsession with winter and snowstorms since I was a toddler. In addition to weather, I pursue an active life in architecture, interning at a local architects office (Website can be found HERE) and doing many community projects, building, designing and landscaping. I am pursuing a pilots license as well, and my knowledge and love for weather helps greatly when flying. My weather page, Weather or Not in the Rivertowns with Remy Mermelstein has been up for about a year now, and I update it at least every other day or more with the latest in weather. I study weather extensively on my own time, and am extremely active in the forums on many weather sites, my favorite being Weatherbell where the knowledge of some of the worlds greatest forecasters are available to me, as well as the massive community of meteorologists, climatologists and pure hobbyists this world has. Dillon and I are also currently working with Joe D'aleo on Science Research involving correlations and effects between the NAO/AO/AMO/PDO...etc... Everyday brings a new realm of learning to us here at Weather in the Hud, and everyday we learn more. So thank you for joining us here to read our forecasts! And, as always, if you have suggestions, advice about our posts, or the weather and our forecasting PLEASE tell us - we are still students and we recognize that, and want to learn as much as we can. Thank you.

Dillon Palmieri – Hi! I am a sophomore at Irvington High School in New York. Like my colleague Remy, my obsession with meteorology started at a young age when I became fascinated by tornadoes at the age of four. From there, my interest in the field expanded to winter storms, severe weather, and finally grew enough for me to want to create my own weather forecasts. Starting last spring (2014), I began officially doing weather forecasts for the public in the Hudson Valley region with Remy on our Facebook page Weather or Not in the Rivertowns. Our popularity quickly grew into hundreds of followers as our forecasts were consistently accurate and provided detailed information that would otherwise not be provided for a specific area such as the Hudson Valley. I also am currently working with Joe D'Aleo, a very well-known meteorologist employed at Weatherbell on a science research project studying the effects of the AMO, PDO, NAO, and AO on global climate. I wish to thank you for visiting our site and please know we welcome any and all input from our followers to make our site better.

ONCE AGAIN! WELCOME TO WEATHER IN THE HUD WITH REMY MERMELSTEIN AND DILLON PALMIERI WE HOPE YOU ENJOY IT!