Tuesday Afternoon Quick Update On "snow"

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Updated: 2100z/17:00/05:00PM

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

Gonna skip an actual forecast because our forecast is not changing per say - just the amounts.

Surface Temperatures and ground temps, as well as the sun's strength have just proved to much for the snow. Accumulations will be essentially a coating, and maybe up to an inch in the Northern Suburbs and higher elevations.

We can still expect some more snow to fall later in the day, but again if any accumulation it will be on grassy surfaces.

Temperatures in the mid 30's, will drop towards nightfall watch for some freezing possible.

New Map is below.

Still worried about this weekend!

Monday Night Update - Snow Coming tomorrow!

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Updated:0230z/22:30/10:30PM

---------------------------------FORECAST-----------------------------------

TONIGHT - A few scattered showers possible, maybe some snow flakes coming down. Lows at or below freezing for most.

TUESDAY - Alberta Clipper here it comes! Cloudy morning will give way to a light snow by early afternoon lasting through to the evening hours most likely. See maps for details. Highs in the low 30's in the morning getting up to around 40° but watch out that will quickly drop back to 30's in the evening and nighttime.

WEDNESDAY - Sunny highs low 40's

THURSDAY - a few clouds otherwise nice, highs in the high 40's..possibly making it into the 50's with southerlies and down sloping.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Winter just keeps wanna coming! But dont worry! Serious signs of a pattern change to a more spring like feel starting after April 10-13th...FOR NOW wink emoticon.

An Alberta clipper will affect the area tomorrow. NOW, couple problems with this, FIRST it will be snowing during the afternoon mostly when the sun is at its strongest, secondly temps will be marginal. SO...right now the accumulations on the map are for GRASSY, UNPAVED surfaces...driveways..etc. MAIN Roads will probably not get messy with this. A general 1-3" for the NYC northern Suburbs, more to the West. See map for details. This being said, looking at the progs Dillon and I are worried about some "thumping" as there will be good dynamics with this system, strong northerlies aloft ramming the warm air into cold creates strong uplift and will enhance the snows. High lapse rates indicate this as well. Not a big storm, but not a little Clipper..

Still worried about snow for Easter Weekend. Now whether it changes to rain after snowing a bit is a question that needs to be answered...but do not put away your shovels yet. GFS is still hanging onto a snow situation as it has been for 4-5 runs now...so definitely something to watch for. The Euro has been sticking with a Lake Cutter, but the latest run (12z) showed a big fungdungle of a mess going on that has no clear "idea" to it, more like many ideas in one....so maybe a trend to something else we shall see what happens tonight.

Another couple storms after that possible next week...rain or snow or both cannot be figured out yet it is too far out.

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT!

Saturday Midday Update

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Updated: 1800z/14:00/02:00PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

REST OF TODAY: Highs in the high 20's to low 30's, cloudy with snow continuing, little to no accumulation maybe a dusting on grassy surfaces - the ground is largely to warm, on the low side of our map given last night.

TONIGHT - Clearing out, cold in the low to mid 20's - extremely cold for this time of year folks! AND, as our nice ocean storm bombs out off the coast watch those winds pickup, and windchills drop to mid teens.

SUNDAY - Sunny, highs in the high 30's to maybe 40°, sunny.

MONDAY - Maybe some spotty showers/ snow showers in the morning, then cloudy to partly sunny skies for the rest of the day highs in the mid 30's.

TUESDAY - As a small clipper drops down Tuesday night into Wednesday morning/afternoon you can expect some snow showers/light snow - much better chance of sticking with this snow. More update later on it though. Temperatures in mid 30's to maybe 40's.

 ------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION--------------------------

Snow will end this evening, little or no accumulation if you are west of the Connecticut river, East of the CT river several inches could accumulate in some parts of Southern New England

Getting into the week, we have a couple of Clippers that should drop down giving Snow on Tuesday night into Wednesday and then maybe rain/snow or snow on Thursday.

Still watching a potential big storm for Easter Weekend. Models are waffling around right now on the track and precipitation types, so more on that later.

Friday Night Weather Update

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Updated: 0115z/21:15/09:15PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Cloudy with some spotty showers possible, then as cold air filters through changing over to some snow showers. Lows near 30°.

SATURDAY - Snow showers/light snow developing in the morning around 9-10 and lasting throughout the day on and off, light accumulation, more as you get East and on LI. See map below.

SUNDAY - Sunny, highs in the low 40's.

MONDAY - Highs in the mid 40's, sunny, maybe a scattered shower.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Active day on Saturday! An Upper air disturbance will move across the area tonight and interact with a developing coastal storm tomorrow spreading snow showers/light snow back to just about the Hudson River, with accumulations of 2-4" through SE New England, maybe even some localized 3-6" on Long Island not impossible!

Sunday through Tuesday should be nice, sunny or partly cloudy highs in the mid 40's maybe into 50's as High Pressure settles over the area.

A couple clippers to watch for Wednesday and Thursday maybe, and still watching a potential biggie storm for Easter weekend. Whether or not it is rain or snow or both is still to be decided, and we will not talk about it in depth until Wednesday or Thursday at the least.

Thursday Night Weather Update

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Updated: 0000z/20:00/08:00PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Dense fog will continue to affect the area, and more then likely a brief thunderstorm as a strong cold front moves through the area. Lows near 40°

FRIDAY - Guys, would not be surprised if we see some snow showers in the morning as that cold front smashes through on the backside of it. Highs in the low to mid 40's.

SATURDAY - Very interesting situation, highs in the low to mid 30's. Now, as a weak upper level disturbance moves and interacts with a developing coastal storm we could very well see snow showers and light snow in the afternoon, accumulation 1-2" or more for now, mostly on grassy surfaces. Stay tuned for more on this. 

SUNDAY - Mostly sunny, highs in the mid 40's...nice day :) more typical of February then late March though!

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

Very active pattern will continue to keep us in winters grip for the next couple of weeks - BUT, GOOD news on the way! Overall atmospheric jet patterns and Teleconnections, oceans signalling at a very "spring" look starting April 8-10 and beyond...so lets hope this stays that way...shall that be the date for start of spring? We shall see!

A cold front will continue to move through the area tonight and associated with it a very positively tilted trough that will house a good number of T-storms and rain, possibly some hail and damaging winds for brief periods of time throughout the night before moving out tomorrow morning/midday ish. As the cold front moves through, the cold air will most certainly follow - I would not be surprised if we see a brief time of snow showers on the backside of the front as it comes through tomorrow.

THIS weekend, very interesting situation as we have an Upper Level Disturbance moving through the area and it will interact with a developing coastal storm. What will happen is a couple of rather weak waves of nrg/moisture will move along the N/NW side of the cold fronts spreading some snow showers and light snow, 1-2" for now in Westchester maybe 2-4" especially along Coastal CT and to the NE of NYC. Frontogenesis will be key with this as it will dictate where the heaviest of the light snows will be, and where the formation of the coastal low is...if it comes closer, more snow, further, less snow. This will be a nowcast situation mostly, but some places along LI and coastal eastern New England may see a quick 3-6" with this.

LONGER range, looking to Easter weekend - models are hinting at some big storm coming through the area, in fact one that might warrant the "blizzard" word. Track and formation is still key, and it is still 10 days out so in no ways am I jumping on it - but the models have been hinting at it for some time, so lets keep a big eye on this!

HAVE a great night folks!

Monday Night Weather Update

*Sorry for lack of posts, Dillon and I have been extremely busy with research work*

-Updated: 0145z/21:45/09:45PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Lows near 20°, partly cloudy, clearing though.

TUESDAY - Mix of sunshine and clouds highs in the high 30's to maybe 40°.

WEDNESDAY - Some afternoon showers possible as a warm front passes through. Highs in the low to mid 40's.

THURSDAY - Maybe some spotty showers in the morning, otherwise highs in the mid to high 40's

FRIDAY - Cold front passes through in the morning bringing a chance of some showers maybe some snow Friday night we shall see, highs in the high 40's to maybe 50's...could get warmer we shall see.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Pretty transient weather over the next couple days, a couple warm and cold fronts over the next couple days will bring chances for rain showers and maybe some snow showers, or snow especially towards the end of the week.

Still looking at the possibility of more snow in the next 2 weeks. Specifically we are watching the **possible** development of a big storm that has been going on and off the models over the past several days, we shall see what goes on with that.

Longer range, still looking at below average temperatures for the next several weeks before flipping as the jet basically switches and the low pressure in the east degrades and shifts west bringing the cold to the west and building a ridge over the east bringing more warmth to our area. This will allow temperatures to move back to "normal" average temperatures. I do not think we will be seeing "above" average temps for some time.

Winter Recap Post coming on Monday of next week!

Ciao for now guys!

Thursday Evening Weather Update SPECIAL on the Winter Storm

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Updated: 0100z/21:00/09:00PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Clear but getting cloudy as the night progresses on, temperatures in the low to mid 20's.

FRIDAY - Cloudy with snow arriving midday, might have some stickage issues at first but ground temps and air temps (aloft as well) will be good to support snow. Snow may be heavy at times especially between 4-6pm. This will be a heavy, wet snow guys - none of that fluffy snow we have been getting! Snow continuing into the nighttime, temperatures in the low to mid 30's.

FRIDAY NIGHT - Snow continuing and tapering off between 10pm and midnight for most east of NYC. Temps in the low 20's.

SATURDAY - Temperatures in the low to mid 40's, cloudy in the morning changing to sunny.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

A small area of low pressure will continue to deepen and move North/NE throughout the night, spreading rain before changing over to snow as it reaches Southern PA and the mountains of West Virginia, and overspreading snow to our area (East of NYC) By midday.

The models, especially the GFS have been pretty consistent on their ideas with this storm for several runs, and Dillon and I feel confident in our forecast. That being said, as always we will be nowcasting as the storm arrives. A key factor during this storm will be the March sun, and temperatures. Tomorrow is the Vernal Equinox, and with that comes equal day and night. While temperatures will be at or below freezing for us, for the most part, the high angle of the sun and the strength of the incoming solation will try to melt the snow. This will play the biggest part during the daytime, however, with the storm arriving a bit later now with the heaviest precipitation (Heaviest precip will be between 4-6PM LIKELY, THIS CAN CHANGE), the sun will be setting and the strength lessened - a bit. Not to say it will be negligible.

To overcome the high sun angle and strength, strong snowfall rates for a good amount of time would be required, as this would promote evaporational and dynamic cooling within the air column to keep the temperatures even cooler, and lessen the suns affect.

That being said, as we look at the soundings and cross sections during the storm, temperatures look very good to support snow, especially big fat flakes which could help accumulate faster.

As the storm happens, Dillon will monitor the Radar and provide small updates (I will be out of town, will try to update if possible) throughout the day.

Also, important to note that even though the snow will be falling by midday, there may be sticking issues causing it not to stick immediately. This should not be a huge problem, especially if we can get big snowfall rates.

Our first call snow map still applies, and is posted below.

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Winter Storm coming!

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Updated: 0117z/21:17/09:17PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Lows in the low teens, clear, guys the clear spots and brisk wind will keep things nice n crisp and cold tonight!

THURSDAY - Highs in the low to mid 30's MAYBE just maybe up to 40° for some, clear and less windy.

FRIDAY - Cloudy temperatures in the low 30's, snow beginning between 1 and 3pm as of now as the storm approaches, snow will probably have a bit of a hard time sticking at first. Snow continuing through the afternoon into the night.

SATURDAY - Any snow will have ended overnight, total accumulations on the map below. Temperatures in the low to mid 40's.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

A disturbance in the plains will continue to drop rain over the southern Plains and Southeast tonight and tomorrow, and at the same time NRG will drop down from Canada, developing our storm in the Carolina's region Thursday night into Friday. WHERE this NRG hooks up with our developing storm will dictate the exact track and whether or not it is able to make the left turn up the Coast and closer to us. FOR NOW, THOUGH this storm should make it to the Lower Hudson Valley, as it will likely interact with a very strong upper low feature around Hudson Bay...Now, that being said we will have to watch how much moisture makes it up into the area and how close to the coast the coastal low forms. Some of the models have it "reforming" into a nice and more powerful low off the LI coast, which would throw precip back. IN ANY CASE, the low is a CLOSED LOOP low, meaning most of the Precip will be N/NW of the track of the low. Right now this is just to the south of us - it would not take much for it to come a bit north.
Snow will be heavy, as the temperatures are marginally cold enough to support snow. Timing is Friday afternoon through late Friday night for all points east of NYC.

FIRST CALL MAP BELOW.

Longer range outlook, still looking to stay well below average temperatures for the next several weeks, and plenty of storm options. Whether or not they are rain or snow or both is still to be decided, but definitely storms on the horizon.

Dillon and I will be posting a winter Recap in the next few days and then in a couple weeks our spring outlook.

hAVE A GREAT NIGHT!

Monday Evening Weather Update

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Updated: 0105z/21:05/09:05PM

------------------------------------FORECAST--------------------------------

TONIGHT - Lows in the upper 30's to low 40°, cloudy with a few spotty showers after midnight as a vigorous cold front begins to move through.

TUESDAY - Warmer ahead of the cold front highs near 50° maybe a spotty shower or two, THEN as the cold front comes through - could we be looking at some snow showers or a snow squall? MAYBE...its a very vigurous change in the atmosphere. 

WEDNESDAY - Windy behind the cold front, pressure gradient very big as a wave develops offshore and High pressure settles over us. Cold too highs in mid 30's. Typical of mid to late January.

THURSDAY - Highs near 40° Mostly sunny.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

FUN FACT: Some Places in Northern Kansas and Nebraska reached into the 80's and 90's today! Will we ever reach that? Well at least not for the next month!

A vigorous cold front will move through late tonight into tomorrow afternoon, with a small wave developing off of it. Some rain showers and some possible snow showers on and off then as the wave deepens offshore, winds will kick up from the pressure gradient.

NOW, I know A LOT of you will hate to hear this - but yes, snow is in the realms of possibility, big possibility for Friday into Saturday. Timing, precipitation, amounts, all that stuff is still to be decided. BUT, all signs are pointing to the possibility of a nice big storm. 

The NAO and AO will go negative, as will the EPO while the WPO will be near nuetral and the PNA positive. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT WE WANT FOR A BIG STORM! Blocking should set up over Greenland, and that will help slow down the storm coming. Now the track will be very dependent as that will decide the precip type and amounts for us. Right now we want it a bit north to give us heavier snow. 

?????????P.S. - JUST A HINT, OR OBSERVATION, BUT Comparing the data for this potential storm, to that of the March 1993 Blizzard - they are looking very similar. ??????

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

Sunday Evening Weather Update

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Updated: 2345z/19:45/07:45PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Lows in the low 30's, mostly clear maybe a few clouds.

MONDAY - A Bit warmer, highs in the high 40's to maybe 50°, mostly cloudy.

TUESDAY - A system will be passing to the north, however it will be weak so a few rain showers in the morning, otherwise partly sunny and highs in the mid to high 40's.

WEDNESDAY - A cold front will have passed through, associated with the Tuesday system and Arctic High pressure will settle over, highs in the high 30's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Very active pattern coming up guys, and going to get a bit technical here if you do not mind. The overall climate is likely in a transition period right now between warm and cold phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In addition to this we have a return of the El Nino, but a Modoki El Nino. On top of all this we have the natural tumultuous period of transitioning from Winter to spring, which is huge in itself. All of this combined, and more is adding to the overall pattern that we have been experiencing.

As some of you might know, this winter we have had above average SST's in the North Atlantic, especially off the east coast. This is characteristic of the AMO beginning its switch to its cold (-) phase, which will take many years to fully finish. This has inhibited the NAO to go negative, which is what helps us get Greenland blocking, and bigger storms here on the East Coast. NOW, as we know - that did not help much this year, as we got many big storms with a +NAO. The driver behind this is above average temperatures in the Pacific, especially in the Gulf of Alaska and off of Baja. This has helped keep ridges pumping it up in the west, which then helps drive the Jet stream south over us, letting cold air in, which is what contributed to one of our coldest winters. This is also why the western half of the Country has been rather warm/mild and dry, especially in terms of snow storms. THIS IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING THOUGH! ITS A NATURAL PHENOMENON!.

What we are seeing now is more of the specific pattern that was present in February, although not as cold. So, yes it will be well below average temperatures for this time, but that means 30's to 40's, not 0's to 10's.

The models are specifically showing 2-4 threats for us over the next 2-3 weeks, that could very well be snow, or rain or both. The first one would be this week, Friday into Saturday if it materializes. We will continue watching the models and let you know!

Have a great night guys!

Friday Evening Weather Update

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Updated: 0115z/21:15/09:15PM

--------------------------------FORECAST--------------------------------

TONIGHT - Rain will begin in the very early hours of tomorrow morning, probably around 4-5am. IT COULD VERY WELL start as some freezing rain/sleet but should quickly change over to all rain. Lows in the low 30's.

SATURDAY - Rain, and it could be heavy especially in the morning will clear out in the afternoon/evening and lead to cloudy skies. Temps in the low 40's.

SATURDAY NIGHT - Clearing, lows in the mid 30's.

SUNDAY - Maybe a few showers/ snow flurries otherwise partly sunny highs in the low to mid 40's

MONDAY - Partly sunny highs in the mid to upper 40's

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

Looking into the longer range time period from now until probably into early April, the pattern seems very ripe to continue the cold(er) and stormy. Of course, remember even 5-10° below average temps are now in the mid 30's to 40's...so, not as cold.

Some of the models, including the GFS have a good 2-4 Big threats to our region (North East) over the next 2-3 weeks. Now, these are threats, and may or may not actually hit us.

One thing that we have lacked this winter is what is called "Blocking" Essentially big ridges, or areas of High Pressure that act as a block to storms and slow them down, allowing them to phase better and become stronger before heading out to sea. NOW, the models are pretty intent that we will be getting A LOT of this blocking over the next several weeks. This is very important as it will play a big factor in these potential storms, whether or not they hit us and how they act.

COLD will be coming next week as well - NOW, if you hear the words polar vortex with this cold DO NOT BELIEVE IT! Guys if the polar vortex made a visit we would have bigger problems to fry with our atmosphere. It will instead be a Arctic Polar HP, or cP Air mass.

So, all in all a very active period coming up for the weather. Stay with us for the latest details!

Have a great night, and as always, to quote JB, "Enjoy the weather, its the only weather ya got!"

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Some big changes coming!

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Update: 2130z/17:30/05:30PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Lows around freezing, a cold front has come through already, however the actual cold air will be delayed until tomorrow.

THURSDAY - Highs in the low to mid 40's, sunny and a bit of a breeze.

FRIDAY - Highs in the low to mid 40's, sunny not as breezy.

SATURDAY - Storm time! Looks like this one will be mainly a soaker, with a bit of snow on the front end possible but little to no accumulation if anything. Still some details to workout, but it will generally be rainy all day long with heavy rain possible. Highs in the low 40's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

What a nice week we have had!! I bet everybody has appreciated the warmer temps, snow melting and sunny skies! Well...do not get use to it! This was a "false" spring, and the overall pattern is going BACK to our stormy and cold that we experienced for much of the last 3 months. Now, it will not be AS cold..but certainly well below the average temperatures. The "target" period for this pattern will be essentially the 15th through end of March and maybe into early April.

This weekend will feature a nice storm, however, even with colder air being shot in before, it will still be too warm across the board for us to get any real snow out of it, unless you are in Maine and far northern New England - this is a mostly to all rain event.

Getting into next week however, we do see ANOTHER possible storm that could be more snow then rain.

SO...Bottom line is, if you are looking at the point-and-click websites and seeing "End of winter" or "warmer temps coming" - sorry! Not right! Winter still has a hold on us!!!!

Have a great day! and as always, I will quote the Great Joe Bastardi, "Enjoy the weather, its the only weather you got!"

Sunday Evening Weather Update - Quiet Week ahead!

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Updated: 0030z/20:15/08:15PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Mainly clear, maybe a bit of icey rain/cold showers and a few wet flakes in the morning as a system passes to the south. Highs in the low 30's.

MONDAY - Maybe some icey rain/cold showers and a few wet flakes in the morning, otherwise Cloudy in the low 40's

TUESDAY - Pretty cloudy, low 40's...not much going on.

WEDNESDAY - Warmest day this week - will we reach 50°? COULD! Highs Upper 40's to mid 50's likely, sunny.

THURSDAY - Sunny highs in the mid 40's

FRIDAY - A bit cooler, highs in the low 40's to upper 30's maybe rain/light snow developing in the nighttime as a POSSIBLE storm approaches.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Well we got through last week did we not? 21" of new snow last week - about 6" of that melted, the rest got condensed down, added about 6-8" to our snowpack? I still have 25" on my lawn...question is how long will that last!

No real Arctic air coming this week, a relaxation in the northern jet and a buckle north in the southern jet will allow for some mild air to come north, an area of HP will help with this midweek. As a storm passes to our south TONIGHT, MAYBE a bit of icey rain/big flakes but nothing to talk about. Best days of the week probably Wednesday-Thursday, sunny and mild!

NEXT possible storm could be a BIGGIE - Winter (????) Just does NOT (????) Want to give upp! Still many details, and a lot of time for things to change, but definitely some sort of storm for the weekend. Hint - WE DO have blocking (FINALLY) and will be getting a fresh injection of Arctic Air - NOW the question is do they meet up and produce the white stuff, or miss each other - and rain? To early to tell! More updates on this later in the week!
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HAVE A G R R R EAAAA T Night!

Thursday Evening Weather Update

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Updated: 0115z/20:15/08:15PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Some stray snow showers may linger as the system moves out and the Arctic front moves through. WATCH FOR ICE! Anything that was not frozen today will ice up tonight - anything unplowed, secondary roads, etc...WATCH! Lows near 0° - AT THIS temperature SALT is useless!

FRIDAY - Cold, windy and Sunny. Highs in the low 20's, winds nice and blustery.

SATURDAY - Nice, Highs around freezing, sunny.

SUNDAY - A bit warmer, mostly sunny highs in around 40°

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Very proud of [my] forecast for the storm - looks like I win the bet with Dillon and a teacher, I said 4-8", we got 6.5"...right darn in the middle! So, how many people (weather companies too) said it would go south? EVEN as it was happening how many said oh it will end by 10am, or just a few inches... So, excited that we nailed this one!

NOW, what is this I see on the models....warmth? YESS, BUT, always a BUT, a false warmth, spring kinda thing. Yes we will reach low 40's for a few days in the coming week...but then guess what? mhhhm you guessed it...another storm coming on the models. Is it rain? ice? snow? Still very far out, but it very well could be all three as temperatures will be at or below freezing at some points, especially at night. Now, specifically - this might be a similar set up to this storm, cold front stalls to the south of us and we get an Ana-frontal type set up...of course this could change. JUST a heads up, possible storm for Next weekend/late next week.

Going LONG range...the longer range 30-45 day models just do NOT wanna let winter leave! Many of these models are sticking with this cold and stormy pattern at least until beginning of April maybe? Just a heads up though, when I say cold, I really mean BELOW AVERAGE temps - so, even if temperatures are 5 to 10° below average, the average in late march is near 50°...so actual temps in low 40's high 30's...getting further away from snow temps, doesnt mean it cannot snow...but eventually even below average temps will be too high for snow.

Thats it for now!

Have a GREAT night!!!

Thursday Midday Winter Storm Update

Updated: 1700z/12:00/12:00PM

**Everything working out as expected right now guys! NWS and the other major weather outlets now scrambling to revise their forecasts - they always seem to...miss the boat shall we say?**

FORECAST

TODAY - Snow will continue for the next several hours tapering off between 4 and 6pm this evening, most likely an additional 3-6" today as a heavy band comes through from the west in response to a bit of an amplification in the system. TOTAL snowfall can be viewed on map below, but generally 4-8" in the Westchester Area. Temps steady in the low 20's, as the storm ends you will know it when you see a wall of sunshine to the NW.

TONIGHT - Bitter cold, lows in the single digits around 5-8° MUCH colder NW of NYC. Clearing out completely.

FRIDAY - Sunny, watch for some ice MAYBE, not very likely but possible. Highs in the low 20's and windy.

NOTE: Looks like the cold dry air is winning out in the Boston/New England Area (Sorry Peter!), the storm will end latest down in the Philly/Jersey area as the cold air takes over this evening 6-9pm, 4-6pm for NYC/northern Suburbs and 2-4pm in CT and Upstate NY and Boston.

Wednesday Evening Winter Storm Update *Biggie! Big Changes!*

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Updated: 0145z/20:45/08:45PM

****BIG Changes in some of the models have no moved the storm track nearly 50 miles NORTH, putting us once again in the zone for heavier snow. To give an example, the GFS went from .44" QPF to .95" QPF with .82" QPF as snow.

Dillon and me have decided however to stay on the bit of a lower end as it is only one model, and saying 4-8" with the VERY TRUE possibility of going up!!...VERY BIG possibility of this folks!

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Rain showers will transition to heavy sleet/snow around 2-3am as the storm approaches. Temperatures will continue to drop into the upper 20's tonight, 2-4" Of snow and sleet expected BEFORE dawn.

THURSDAY - Snow, heavy at times and some sleet mixing in continuing throughout the day an addition 2-4" expected, with a VERY real possibility of going up to 3-5" or more. Highs in the high 20's maybe reaching 30° - GUYS, SNOW ratios will be High, 12-15:1. Snow will taper off and end around 3-4pm and all out by late evening. TOTAL storm accumulations can be seen on the map below.

THURSDAY NIGHT - Rapid Freeze up into Friday as things start to clear up!

FRIDAY - Clear, Sunny - FREEZING Highs in the low 20's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

So last night the models were all going south - and now back north? YEP! What is happening is the COLD AIR, the Arctic HP is coming in slower then originally thought, not allowing the storm to push south. An ana-frontal type system is now set up and making its way through the Ohio valley, precipitation on the NORTHERN side of the front and Low. This will continue to move East NE towards us and spread rain to sleet to heavy snow by dawn, most likely between 2-3am. A very strong jet streak will also move along, hopefully adding to the NRG and enhancing our snow by providing better dynamics. The Arctic HP will be following close behind.

No matter what, this will really be a Nowcast situation as it is changing a lot on the models. Looking at observations will be key. But I do believe, and so does Dillon, that this WILL be a significant system.

**LOOKING at the LATEST data, MOST of the snow would fall from after RUSH HOUR through early afternoon.****

Tuesday Evening Winter Storm Update

Updated: 0030z/19:30/07:31PM

*****Emergency Alert for the Period NOW until Tomorrow Morning*****

Guys Obviously this front thump of snow has overachieved in everyway. Currently recording almost 5" at my house, and a friend in White Plains has the same recording. White Plains Airport is at 4.9" officially as of 7pm.

Please, please be careful - now we are changing over to an Ice/Freezing Rain/Sleet Mix and it will stay like this for the next SEVERAL hours before changing to plain rain around or after midnight.

Anymore Accumulations should be between 1-3" of this mess, maybe a bit more.

FORECAST

TONIGHT - ICE/freezing rain/sleet/snow continuing before changing over around midnight to rain. Additional Accumulations 1-3" if not more. Temps around freezing.

TOMORROW - Rain and dense fog, rain may be heavy at times in the morning, but doubtfull. The GROUND will be below freezing so WATCH out for Ice!!!!! GONNA be a really MESSY morning.
A lull in the precipitation as cold front comes through and storm pulls away, our second wave forming.

TOMORROW NIGHT - Rain turning to ice to all snow by midnight and continuing, temps in the mid to high 20's.

THURSDAY - Snow in the morning through afternoon tapering off in the evening. Could be significant accumulations. Temps in the high 20's.

FRIDAY - Frigid watch for rapid freezup highs in the low 20's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A rapidly deepening low pressure system will continue to move across Southern Canada and take over with rain after midnight tonight. As it pulls out tomorrow a wave will form off the bucket loads of moisture along the frontal boundary (cold/warm air) Where this frontal boundary will determine the exact trend of the heaviest snows, but it seems that the Arctic Air coming behind it will be enough to suppress the axis of heaviest precipitation along NYC to Philly. We would once again be on the northern edge of the heavy (ish) snows. Right now I am calling for 3-5" with a possibility of going down and up. Dillon thinks 1-2". What should be noted is that as the storm intensifies, much like today, the snow ratios will bump up especially from the air rapidly cooling. We can expect 12:1 ratios and maybe 15:1 if lucky. Also keep in mind that the heaviest snows are NYC to Philly - NYC is less then 30 miles away. It would really not take MUCH for us to get in the heavier snows again. An example is that Yonkers has a Winter Storm Warning for 4-8" of snow, and here in Irvington we have no warning and just 2-4" of snow. Not far to move!. however as of now this is the forecast. You could say Dillon scored a "coup" I still have my doubts though!

This second half of the storm should continue into Thursday afternoon and evening. Initial first call snow map is below.

Guys, even if we do not get 8-12" with the next batch of snow - it will be very icey, very dangerous tomorrow into Thursday afternoon. This is NOT a storm to take lightly, especially because of its long duration.

Ok thats it for now! Be back later if need be

 

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Monday Evening Upcoming Storm(s) Weather Update

Updated: 0100z/20:00/08:00PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Pretty much clear, lows in the low teens to single digits maybe in far northern and northwest areas of NY and New England.

TUESDAY - Clear skies will give way to thickening clouds, temperatures in the high 20's to right around 32°, Snow and sleet developing in the LATE afternoon (SEE SNOW MAP), 1-3" (could change, but we doubt it) into the evening and nighttime.

TUESDAY NIGHT - Snow/sleet changing over to ice/sleet/rain and finally all rain by Wednesday morning, nighttime temps around freezing...WATCH out this could be a SERIOUS ice situation as ground is frozen, and a lot OF cold air around...

WEDNESDAY - Ice/wintry mix changing over to all rain in the morning (around rush hour probably maybe a bit sooner/later) will continue throughout the morning, may be a bit heavy at times... Should be a lull in the precipitation during the afternoon as the Initial [storm] moves out then starting again in the evening. Temps in the high 30's to low 40's.

THURSDAY - We have a BIG potential to waking up with NEW snow on the ground and snow falling, as a new wave forms off the back of the Lake Cutter and comes through Wednesday Night through Thursday afternoon/evening...We WILL have cold air in place and this could be a BIG storm...we will keep you posted.

FRIDAY - COLLD Rapid freez up Thursday night, Highs in the low to mid 20's, mostly sunny.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

We have a VERY wild week ahead! A bit of a break today and most of tomorrow before our next storm arrives. A lake cutter will form and move across the area. Since the Center of the Low pressure will be FAR to the N and W of us, it will be a mostly rain event - HOWEVER, we have plenty of cold air in place so watch out for a big THUMP of snow Tuesday evening into the night 1-3" locally 2-4" before a changeover to rain/sleet/ice into Wednesday morning then all rain Wednesday. NOW the interesting part - a brief lull in the precipitation HOWEVER, bucket loads of moisture with this system, and the models have been insistant on another wave forming along the Arctic Frontal Boundary. Cold front will come through Wednesday night, new shot of colder air, and a new wave will form to the SW of us and move ALONG that frontal boundary towards us. THIS would be our all snow event, or Rain to ALL snow event starting Wednesday night and lasting through Thursday Afternoon likely. At this point accumulations could be anywhere from 5 to 10" although that could change. WHEREVER this front boundary sets up is where the axis of heaviest snows will be. If I take an average from ALL the 6 models with snowfall maps, that gives NYC metro area and northern Suburbs 6-8" snow. A wet heavy snow too.

So keep an eye out for our posts - wild week ahead. More cold for Friday as well with a flash freeze Thursday night.

***THE SNOW MAP IS ONLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING***

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT!

7 P.M. Sunday Evening Storm/Weather Update

We thought we should try a different way of giving updates on the page...Please, please tell us if you like this way or the other way better. Your comments are key, as we do this for all of you!

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Snow, heavy at times will continue throughout the night, total accumulations between 3-6" with locally 4-8" very possible depending on where those bands set up over us. Temperatures will stay steady in high teens to low low 20's. Snow will taper off and end between 2-4am, definitely by 5am for almost all west of Hartford.

MONDAY - Clouds and possibly a few stray snow showers early will give way to mostly sunny skies behind the storm, highs in the low 30's. Winds will be a bit frisky, WNW @ 15-20mph gusts to 25mph maybe.

MONDAY NIGHT - Clear, lows in the low teens.

TUESDAY - Clear turning cloudy quickly, with likely light snow developing in the evening and maybe a big thump of front end snow as our next storm approaches...still some things to work out with the storm so more updates later on this. Highs near freezing.

WEDNESDAY - Ice/sleet probably over to all rain, again more details to workout.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Our current storm will continue to trudge northeast tonight, the precipitation shield will eventually turn to the NE/ESE tonight. Most of the snow will end around NYC between 2-4am, definitely by 5am. Thumping will continue and maybe a bit of ice as the thermal gradient comes northward - what is happening is we get this frontal wedging, and 40-50 mph winds in the lower jet stream from the South with warm air slamming into the cold arctic air - this creates a TON of lift and perfect dynamics for the snow as the cold air is forcing that warm air straight up where it can condense and fall as snow. SO, storm totals still on key with our map from last night. a general 3-6/4-8" for most N/NE of NYC.

WE get a ONE DAY break, tomorrow before our next storm roles in. This is a difficult storm, and actually a bit of 2 storms in one. First a lake cutter will ride the St. Lawrence river, and likely give us a good front end thump of snow Tuesday night before changing over to ice/sleet then rain for Wednesday. A lull in the precip as the LC moves out..BUT we have an interesting development as the models are seeing an LP form along an ana front just to the SW of us..NOW, as this LP moves towards us, remember we will have had a cold front come through Wednesday night with the Lake Cutter - this looks to be SNOW as it comes through, and COULD dump a good amount of snow. Just to give an idea, the GFS has 16" for us in the next 5 days...9" if you take off whats falling now. The European has 13" for the same period, 8" if you take off today's snow. The Canadian has 3", the NAM has 8"...so all somewhat similar.

If there is one word to describe this week it is: WILD.

Anyway, please let us know how you like this new format, and enjoy the weather, its the only weather you got! (As Joe Bastardi always says!)

********MIDDAY UPDATE - SNOW IS COMING*******

Snow is showing up on radar but not hitting the ground yet - most likely due to the dry air. In any case light snow will begin in the next couple of hours, and will really kick up this evening into the nighttime.

We are bumping back the end time, it will be all over by the very early hours of Monday morning, most likely before rush hour.

Nothing else is changing in our forecast.

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HAVE A GREAT DAY!