**********FRIDAY NIGHT DISCUSSION - WINTER STORM AHEAD FOR SUPERBOWL FOLKS!**********

*******FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A DECENT WINTER STORM, ALL SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT******
HOW MUCH SNOW? WELL HERE IS THE TRICKY PART! IT IS GOING TO BE BRUTALLY COLD FOLKS, AND THIS STORM IS GONNA BE EVEN COLDER. DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF 15-20:1 RATIOS OF SNOW ARE PRESENT. FOR NOW, I WILL STICK WITH 10:1 RATIOS - BUT AN AVERAGE OF THE MODELS WOULD BE 
8-12", A MAX WOULD BE 12-15" AND A MINIMUM 4".

HINTING - WITH HIGHER RATIOS WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
PROBABLE 12-15", MAX 18-24"(BUT I THINK THATS A FAR STRETCH).

A storm will move across the Midwest tonight into tomorrow and form a slightly stronger low as it comes out of the Ohio Valley. FOLKS, TRACK AS ALWAYS IS VERY IMPORTANT! A MOVE SOUTH 50 MILES WOULD CUT OUR SNOW IN HALF, A MOVE NORTH 50 MILES COULD MIX SOME YOU-KNOW WHAT IN!!!! 

WE ALL KNOW HOW THE MODELS ARE...SINCE THE LAST STORM.

Pictures are worth a thousand words so PLEASE LOOK AT THEM FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE STORM!

TIMING, AS OF NOW, WOULD BE MID SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO RIGHT AS SUPERBOWL PARTIES ENDING!

OTHER NEWS: BRUTAL, I MEAN BRUTAL COLD COMING TONIGHT WITH BRUTAL WINDCHILLS FAR INTO THE NEGATIVES. PLEASE BE CAREFUL FOLKS!

****************FORECAST*******************

TONIGHT - COLD COLD FRIGID. Lows in the NEGATIVES, -15 to -20° BELOW with the WINDCHILLS, Otherwise Around 1° PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AS YOU GET NORTH AND WEST. WINDS 20-30MPH GUSTS TO 35MPH

TOMORROW - COLD! Highs in the LOW 20's, MORNING HIGHS IN THE NEGATIVES! ENJOY THE SUNNINESS - WONT LAST FOR LONG!

SUNDAY - Increasing Clouds as the day goes on Highs in the LOW 30's around 30-32° Getting COLDER as the day goes on probably, SNOW arriving LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO...MAYBE EARLIER FINAL DETAILS TOMORROW.

MONDAY - Snow Continuing throughout the day is probable. Highs in the low 20's probable.

FIRST CALL MAPS BELOW FOR SUNDAY STORM

TEMPERATURE MAPS AS WELL - LOOK AT THAT COLD!!!!!!

WINDY TOO FOLKS!

*******IMPORTANT UPDATE FOLKS!!!*********

**********TAKING A BIT OF A RISK HERE, BUT I THINK IT DESERVES TO BE PUT OUT************

LATEST MODEL DATA + SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOWING THAT THIS CLIPPER WILL BE ABLE TO PICK UP SOME MORE MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AS IT PINWHEELS OUTTA HERE AND INTENSIFIES, A BIT SOONER ACTUALLY, AND THIS WILL **LIKELY*** DEVELOP SOME MODERATE BANDS OF SNOW IN THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. I HAVE WATCHED IT TREND MORE WITH EACH RUN, SO DILLON AND I THOUGHT WE SHOULD UPDATE THE SNOW MAP. 

STILL NOTE, CLIPPERS ARE VERY HARD TO PREDICT, BUT I THINK WE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ONE!, OTHER SNOW MAP STILL IN EFFECT IF THESE BANDS FAIL TO DEVELOP...MOTHER NATURE DOES WHAT MOTHER NATURE WANTS!

**********THURSDAY EVENING UPDATIO**********

A nice and healthy clipper will start to move in tonight spreading Light snow in the area bringing an inch to two inches for us, while areas to the North and NE will get slightly more, 3-4" on top of some areas who got 30"+ from the Blizzard. Redevelopment/Intensification of the low as it hits the Water in the Gulf of Maine will throw some precip back into New England giving Areas just north of Boston (Gloucester/Amsebury area) a good extra 2-3" on top of the 3" from the initial snow of the clipper tomorrow and into tomorrow night. MAINE People - watch out another 6-12" or more coming your way as the low redevelops and forms a closed loop, the negative trough will bring a good amount of Atlantic Moisture up into the area and fuel the snow.

****UPDATED SNOW MAP BELOW FOR THE CLIPPER***

Sunday to Monday night STORM STILL WAFFLING ON THE MODELS....So no definitive ideas yet. The models HAVE been trending with a more southerly track putting Places north of NYC on the edge of snowfall, 3-6"....STILL TO EARLY TO MAKE DEFINITIVE FORECAST THOUGH FOLKS, SO DO NOT WORRY YET.

Another System on the Horizon for next Thursday. Still unclear what will happen with it, so no worries.

************FORECAST**************

TONIGHT - COLDD, in the low to mid teens, maybe low 20's along the coast. Clipper arrives in a few hours, light snow/snow showers, another burst around daybreak possible so watch for rush hour tomorrow. SEE SNOW MAP.

TOMORROW - Some lingering light snow/snow showers in the morning tapering off and skies become partly cloudy to sunny Highs in the mid 20's - COLD SHOT TOMORROW NIGHT, GUYS BRUTAL BRUTAL COLD!!!

SATURDAY - Highs in the low to mid 20's, Sunny, brisk wind in the morning probably will die as the day goes on. 

THANKS AGAIN TO WEATHERBELL AND RYAN FOR LETTING US UTILIZE THESE AMAZING MODELS!

*********WEDNESDAY EVENING WEATHER UPDATE**********

As Always, THANKS for following the page/blog and supporting us. Be sure to spread the word about us!!!

EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND DIGGING OUT FROM THE "EPIC" STORM...REPORTS FROM 20" TO OVER 36" IN SOME PLACES. MORE SNOW ON THE WAY FOR SOME OF THEM TOO!
NOW, onto the weather!! We have a couple of key events heading our way...first one tomorrow night!!!

- First event - a clipper will pass to the North, a general Coating to an INCH, MAYBE 2" FOR NOW, but I am watching this closely as we could end up with a situation similar to a couple weeks ago with that clipper on the Friday morning when schools should have had a delay.....if you remember! AREAS TO THE NORTH EAST, Boston, Mass, CT, 3-6" IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS CLIPPER. MAINE - BOY YOU GOT WINTER STORM WARNINGS UP ALREADY, 6+" ON THE WAY!

- SECOND event, BIGGER, as of now for SUNDAY - MONDAY. We will have a storm developing in the West that will move East and either pass to the North OR south of us - right now, to the south, but the models are waffling around so we shall have to wait a few days before going to specifics. TRACK will be important as this could be rain or snow or mix or rain to snow, vise versa.

- THIRD EVENT, FAR OUT, but a POSSIBLE storm coming up next Thursday ish. All I am gonna say right now.

COLD WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE NORTHEAST, HIGHS ON AVERAGE 2-6° BELOW AVERAGE, WITH SOME SHOTS OF MUCH COLDER AIR IN BETWEEN AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. 

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN, SO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR UPDATES FROM DILLON AND I.

*********FORECAST**********

TONIGHT - FRIGID in the single digits, wind chills MAY and very well COULD reach into the Negatives, any clouds should move out - but not for long.

THURSDAY - Highs right around 30° or less, especially as you get N/NW of NYC. Coastal areas a bit warmer as wind from the NE dies down a bit. Light Snow/Snow showers developing during the night, a coating to an inch maybe 2" for now - will know more tomorrow and will update y'all accordingly. SNOW MAP BELOW.

FRIDAY - Morning snowshowers/light snow will lead to partly cloudy maybe sunny skies in the afternoon, Highs in the LOW 30'S, again progressively colder as you get North and West of NYC. 

SATURDAY - COLDER, Highs in the LOW 20's. Sunny.

Snow map below for the CLIPPER, PLUS a map of snow totals from the blizzard. You can see who got the gold!

*******BLIZZARD ANALYSIS - WHAT WENT WRONG, WHAT WE COULD DO BETTER**********

******OK SINCE I GOT SOME REQUESTS FOR AN ANALYSIS OF THE STORM HERE IT IS FOR ANYBODY WHO WANTS TO UNDERSTAND WHAT HAPPENED. IF YOU ARE CONFUSED JUST ASK*******

FIRST OFF - I am seeing some articles saying that favoring one model was the main reason for this forecast bust. Sorry folks, but there were other reasons, outlined below that EVERYBODY missed - not just the models. We cannot blame computers for everything!

STORM HISTORY: The Storm formed further to the SW than originally thought and what was shown on the models, just to the east of South Carolina and with a more negative tilted trough axis. I think this led many to believe (including Dillon and I) that this would cause it to hug the coast more as it came up and then deepen and strengthen a bit sooner so that by the time it got up to LI it would stall and send those strong snows for a longer period of time. We should have seen this a bit on the Euro, as it hinted in the 12z model run on Monday that there would be a 30+" band over NYC through Central CT. If the storm had gone according to plan this would have been quite possible. 
The storm Storm moved East of Hatteras, NC but further West then models saw and that is when got those initial bands of heavy snow in the afternoon over LI and Southern CT and Westchester, part of NJ and PA as the clipper finished transferring its energy over to the developing storm. 
The storm moved up as planned, stalled as planned blah blah. 

So where did we get caught?

WHAT HAPPENED - First off, the Boundary between the Arctic air bleeding off the HP and the warmer air boundary was where it should have been the whole time, as shown on the models and upper air progs/surface maps and satellite, and the storm DID form along it as it should have. This made me believe even more it would follow a more westerly track as that’s where it would form and the Boundary was over NY. 
Once the storm got SE of LI though I noticed on the upper air progs we ran into trouble. All the models I think (that were printing out 24+” snow) were assuming this storm would:

(1) close off the trough at 700mb and then that would enable the heaviest snows to be focus N/NW of the low track (hence why I thought those bands S of Boston would move West) This storm SHOULD HAVE this by 6-8pm in order for anybody WEST of NY/CT Border to get the big snows. 

(2) The trough at 500mb did not close nearly in time, which should have been after midnight so that the storm would slow down and stall more throwing back more snow. It EVENTUALLY did this Early Tuesday morning (When we got that band of snow this morning).

(3) The trough (dip in the jet stream) was SO inverted even when it got up here that it allowed a ton of air to sink over into it over PA and around me over NY/CT border. This PROBABLY contributed to the precipitation being “dried” out of the storm on the WESTERN SIDE of the Precipitation shield as all this air rose and then had to sink elsewhere. If anybody was watching the radar at the time, it looked like a wall of snow JUST to the east of NYC and it was barely moving west, or looked like it was being eaten/squished up East of the Hudson.

(4) The rising warmer air and the sinking colder air around us PROBABLY contributed to more condensation which led to more latent heat and then the clouds just keep on floating up like balloons. (Clouds warmer then air around them) 

SO TO SUM IT ALL UP: The precipitation shield was just being eaten away as it came farther west, and then that combined with the sudden track trend east at like 2am led to the precipitation being lost over us. The low became to progressive and then got captured too late for us folks east of CT. Looks like NYC got a decent band late at night, and LI just kept getting pounded as the ocean probably helped with setting up those extreme bands of snow. In fact, another thing interested about the inverted trough – usually don’t see that sort of mesoscale extreme weather in winter…but hey Mother Nature does what mother nature wants. 

WHAT COULD WE HAVE DONE BETTER: 

1 - In the future, we will now look at, in much more detail the realtime data, IE Radar, Satellite, Water Vapor loops and upper air progs so that we can see what the storm is actually doing instead of what the model wants it to do.

2 - Do not lean towards/favor one model - pay more attention to trends on other models and combine them into our forecasts.

3- Look for the tiniest details, because they can be the biggest game changers!

This storm was always "TOO GOOD" to be true. It is amazing how PERFECTLY the variables have to add up to get a storm like this. One little thing can change everything.

HAVE A GOOD NIGHT FOLKS, THANKS FOR LISTENING, AND IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS - ASK!

*********2PM UPDATE - OR SHOULD I SAY APOLOGY?************

Obviously at this point in the day the storm is moving out, and many of you are probably wondering what happened. There is not much more for me to add from what Dillon posted, but I do want to explain something:

When you have multiple models, and one of them being the one that is most widely trusted and regarded as the best telling you that a massive storm will affect your area and drop 20+" for 3 or 4 CONSECUTIVE days (6-8 models runs or more) then generally that plays out as it said it would. But it must be understood that Mother nature will do what she does. This storm formed further SW then the models predicted, and had a more negative tilt. The Arctic Air boundary, which it was forming along was also fairly west over NY. These observations on the radar and satellite led many to believe that it would continue to be a bit further west then the models had, and stay around longer with the more negative tilt. It was still further west then expected with OUR LAST update Last night @ 10:20pm. So why suddenly after 2am did it shift east? This is not known, at least to me yet...but I will be finding out. EVEN when the 0z Euro model came out at 1:30am...it had us still getting 12-18". 

This does not mean however that Dillon, me, or any other meteorologists forecast for 20+" NYC and North was right and should not take blame. It was wrong. We understand that. Busts happen though, and we cannot control that. Dillon and I spent 18+ hours (you can check the phone log) on the phone in the last 4 days talking about the storm and our forecasts, all the different ways it could go, amounts, etc...everything was used to make the forecast, plus 2 hours of research and writing each post...but hey what can you do. 

SO, We are sorry for any inconvenience this may have caused. We hope you continue to view our page for Weather forecasts/updates.

If anybody continues to have questions as to why this happened, then email me, or private message me. 

FOR THOSE OF YOU EAST OF THE CT RIVER, and on Long Island - WELL LUCKY YOU, because you are the big winners with this storm. 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOW, onto the next few day/week.

TODAY - MAYBE a few stray snow here and there otherwise snow ending and clouds clearing out late, still a bit windy steady in mid to low 20's.

WEDNESDAY - Partly cloudy becoming mostly sunny highs in the high 20's still a bit windy.

THURSDAY - Partly cloudy Highs steady around 30°, clouds arriving at night, maybe some light snow during the night as we have a possible clipper coming by.

FRIDAY - Maybe some snow in the morning with a passing clipper, otherwise Cloudy highs in the low 30's.

We have a possible event for Next Sunday into Monday. We will not start coverage on this until Friday at the earliest most likely. 

*****10:20PM UPDATE FOLKS...I HATE TO DO THIS...BUT I GOTTA*****

Latest Data coming in, plus my own observation of the radar returns are leading me to believe that 20"+ Is going to be hard to come by, unless we can REALLY ramp up the snow in the next 12-24 hours. 

SO, WE ARE ISSUING A NEW SNOW MAP, ***BUT NOTE THE OLD ONE IS STILL IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES, DO NOT DISCOUNT IT*****. I ISSUE THIS WITH EXTREME CAUTION - IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH AT ALL FOR US TO GET IN THE ZONE OF 18-24+", BUT AT THIS POINT IN TIME, I THINK WE WILL JUST MISS THAT ZONE BY A TAD.

REMEMBER AS WELL, THIS STORM WAS NEVER SUPPOSED TO REACH ITS POTENTIAL UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT - SO WE STILL HAVE TIME. GIVE THIS MONSTER TIME.
COULD I BE WRONG? OF COURSE. BUT HEY, YOU GOTTA BE WRONG SOMETIMES...AND THIS IS A VERY TOUGH SCIENCE. FOR ALL WE KNOW, THE EURO COULD BE RIGHT, AND WE COULD END UP WITH 20" TOMORROW...BUT MY GUT IS TELLING ME DIFFERENTLY, FOR NOW AT LEAST.

NOT LOWERING TOTALS A TON, BUT ENOUGH.
IF DILLON AND I FEEL THIS NEEDS TO CHANGE TOMORROW MORNING, THEN WE WILL CHANGE IT.

You have to realize, that we can do ALL the forecasting we want, but nothing will be the observations and NOWCASTS. Do not take this as A CONCRETE THING, BUT MORE OF A GUIDE. Weather Models are guides, that we use to interpret and Observations of Radar/Satellite, etc. are the concrete things.

BLIZZARD WARNINGS STILL IN EFFECT, WINDS WILL STILL GET UP THERE. PLEASE BE CAREFUL, AND AGAIN THANKS FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

*********7:30 PM UPDATE**********

SORRY A TAD LATE! 
ANYWAY!

AGAIN, THANK YOU TO ALL OF YOU WHO SUPPORT US!

IN CASE YOU DID NOT SEE THE ARTICLE:
http://www.lohud.com/story/news/2015/01/26/armchair-meteorologists/22350937/

SO....WHATS GOING ON WITH THE STORM!? ITS RIGHT ON TRACK FOLKS! DILLON AND I, WHILE EXCITED AND NERVOUS, ARE CONFIDENT WITH THE FORECAST. WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A NEW SNOW MAP, AS WE FEEL THE ONE ALREADY POSTED WILL DO JUST FINE.

SO! The Storm actually began to form a BIT further South and West then anticipated, so the HEAVY precip MAY take a BIT longer to arrive!...BUT THIS IS GOOD! The Severly NEGATIVE TILT of this means It should NOT go further East then expected, and will stick around for a bit longer as well. Once the storm bombs out it will stall SE of Long island, again as expected.

HEAVIEST SNOWS STILL LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOLKS.

THE WHOLE THING SHOULD BE OUTTA HERE LATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.

BE BACK LATER!

**********VERY IMPORTANT 5:30 AM UPDATE**********

Last night some of the models had Remy and I VERY CONCERNED that the storm was going to be further offshore and therefore we would receive a much reduced amount of snow. However, the European model, which is highly trusted among many meteorologists, has been consistent in its last four runs printing 24"+ across the area. Additionally, the model runs that were portraying a faster and more offshore system have since returned to something closer to that of the European model. 

With that being said, we will NOT make any changes as of now to our current snowfall map as we still believe everything is in place for a MAJOR blizzard. Those of you under the 18-24" range (lower Hudson Valley, NE New Jersey, Long Island, and coastal New England) should be on guard for blizzard-like conditions beginning late Monday night and continuing through the early afternoon on Tuesday. Additionally, mesoscale banding (essentially VERY heavy bands of snow) will set up somewhere across the aforementioned area, creating a "sweet spot" for snowfall (30 INCHES PLUS)... however, predicting exactly where these bands will form is nearly impossible this far in advance.

The timing of the storm has also remained the same. During the day on Monday, most areas can expect between 1-3" of snow before nightfall as the clipper arrives. Come this evening, the snow will pick up in intensity as the storm stalls and strengthens off the New Jersey coast. We are highlighting the time period from LATE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON as the period of the heaviest snowfall. Snowfall rates could approach FOUR INCHES PER HOUR. Tuesday evening the storm should begin to wind down with little additional accumulation. For total accumulations in your area, refer to the map below. Then it gets COLD.

Folks, this is a VERY dangerous storm. If you do not have to travel, DON'T. At the height of the storm, some roads will likely be IMPASSABLE and power outages are very possible. Make sure you are prepared with food, water, flashlights, batteries, and plenty of warm clothing/blankets. This storm will most likely go down in the record books.

******IMPORTANT SMALL UPDATE FOLKS*******

*****PLEASE READ
EVEN THOUGH THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS NOT TOMORROW DAYTIME, THE 1-3" FOR TOMORROW COULD EASILY BECOME 2-4" OR MORE AS THE EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO MUCH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS - SO TRAVELLING PEEPS BE CAREFUL. BE CAREFUL GETTING TO AND FROM SCHOOL!

FELLOW CLASSMATES, MAKE SURE YOU GOT RIDES TO AND FROM SCHOOL IF NOT TAKING THE BUS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON!

*******FIRST SNOW MAP CALL FOR STORM TOMORROW BASED OFF OF THE Euro, GFS, NAM, NAM 4KM WRF, UKMET, AND CANADIAN MODELS********* 3PM UPDATE

OK, I am going to Explain this map - as some things are hard to draw in!

Areas in red I think will generally get the most out of this storm, as the bulls eye's are here on most of the models. HOWEVER, WE WILL NOT KNOW THIS FOR SURE UNTIL IT HAPPENS AND WE CAN SEE THE BANDING BEING SET UP. Models have a tough time with banding. the STARS indicate chances for localized amounts upwards of 30" possible.

THE REASON, I do not extend the red all the way to the MA Coast and Nantucket is that I see a SLIGHT chance of some mixing as the low swings past, bringing temperatures aloft to 1-2°C...However, this is a very tough call...they may very well end up with more.

Areas in Orange, So Around Poughkeepsie to Hudson/Albany and then West through Northern NJ and PA, East to just West of Boston, I am pretty solid on 14-18" with Localized Higher amounts.

Areas in Purple, and I include Boston in this, but they very well might end up with higher amounts, 10-14" with higher elevation areas receiving more.

AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY, to the NW 6-10"...this is starting to get to the outer edges of the storm IN BLUE

North WEST and NoRTH OF THAT, Central NY to Northern VT/NH...Sorry buds, Likely 1-4, 3-6" or around there.

ANY QUESTIONS, JUST PM ME. FULL UPDATE THIS EVENING.
NOTHING ELSE CHANGING! 

*******MIDDAY UPDATE FOLKS - THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG ONE-*******

BRIEF UPDATE NOW, BIGGER ONE WITH 12Z EURO, AND FULL ONE THIS EVENING ONCE ALL MODELS OUT.

***I WOULD START MAKING SURE YOU HAVE GAS, FOOD, WATER, A GENERATOR THAT WORKS (IF YOU HAVE ONE ALREADY), GAS FOR SNOWBLOWERS, SALT, SHOVELS....ALL HANDS ON DECK??-****

First snow map will go out with the 12z Euro, but JUST to give you an idea, Amounts of 1-2' with Localized amounts maybe up to 3' in DRIFTS from Central Jersey through to Boston and Southern New England.

BLIZZARD WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE UP! FOLKS THIS MEANS WINDS OF 3-40MPH GUSTS TO 50MPH OR MORE!

TIMING - Light snow will arrive Monday 1AM, MEANING TONIGHT! Lasting through tomorrow afternoon, 1-3" most likely, then a LULL in the precipitation, then light snow turning to heavy snow Monday night, 8-12", HEAVIEST snow Tuesday morning through afternoon an addition 8-12" OR MORE will not be UNEXPECTED OR UNCOMMON I THINK! BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MORE UPDATES COMING IN AN HOUR!

*******HOLY MOTHER OF GOODDDDD******

ALL I GOTTA SAY - IS WOW!

OK FOLKS Here is the deal - LATEST EURO Models just came in, and Right or wrong on the specific snow amounts - THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF MAJOR MAJOR SNOW STORM/BLIZZARD Monday Night into Wednesday EARLY morning, spreading HUGE snow accumulations.

DO I want to jump the gun? NO, but I do feel that this is more or less set in stone - that is the event.

SPECIFIC snow totals we will get too later.

ALL of us Highschoolers with Midterms - well I frankly do not know what they do, if we miss school, but - extra studying time!

Right now we have 4 of the MAJOR models agreeing on a WIDESPREAD MASSIVE STORM WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

MORE LATER!!!

********SATURDAY EVENING UPDATE - GUYS ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM ON THE WAY*********

********SATURDAY EVENING UPDATE - GUYS ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM ON THE WAY*********

ONE STORM DONE, AND ANOTHER ON THE WAY! 

A Clipper will be moving through the area Sunday Night into Monday, and at the same time a Coastal Storm will be moving up the coast. NOW, when they intersect there is a HUGE POTENTIAL for them to BOMB and create a pretty darn big storm. 

RIGHT NOW, timing would be Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Night, POSSIBLY Wednesday Morning.

POTENTIAL IS BIG HERE FOLKS - MOST MODELS AGREEING ON A HUGE SNOW. GRANTED, A LOT CAN CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, ********SO THIS IS IN NO WAY A FORECAST*******

JUST A HINT - THAT IF THE 3 DIFFERENT MODELS (WHO ARE MORE OR LESS IN AGREEMENT) #'S PAN OUT - WE COULD BE LOOKING AT QUITE A HISTORIC STORM FOR ANYBODY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

THERE WILL BE NO QUESTION ABOUT RAIN/SNOW WITH THIS STORM - IT WILL BE ALL SNOW IF IT COMES TO FRUITION. 

KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THE UPDATES COMING FROM THIS PAGE.

OTHER NEWS - INTENSE COLD COMING, Guys this could DEFINITELY rival the cold we saw a few weeks ago. Arctic Front will move through TOMORROW night and usher in a potential 15 DAYS OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS!....

Get ready - WINTER HAS STARTED!!!

**********************FORECAST*********************

TONIGHT - Rain/snow showers ending before midnight, colder in the low to mid 20's - WATCH FOR BLACK ICE! ANY MELTED SNOW/WATER WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO FREEZE.

SUNDAY - Sunny, Highs in the low to mid 30's and dropping

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT FOLKS!

********MIDDAY SATURDAY UPDATE************

VERY HAPPY TODAY AS I THINK I NAILED THAT FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS, TOTAL SNOWFALL HERE AT MY HOUSE WAS 6.8" IN THE DRIVEWAY NO DRIFTS AWAY FROM TREES... SO RIGHT IN THE 4-8/5-8" THAT I POSTED LAST NIGHT.

NOW...WHATS NEXT!

WELL, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY STEADY IN THE LOW 30'S TODAY, AND AS THE LOW DEEPENS A BIT MORE WE WILL GET ANOTHER LIGHT BOUT OF SNOW/RAIN/SLEET THIS AFTERNOON. - ACCUMULATIONS? PROBABLY LESS THEN AN INCH.

ARCTIC AIR WILL COME IN TOMORROW NIGHT, AND WITH IT A CLIPPER - NOW, THIS CLIPPER RIGHT NOW IS SHOWING UP ON THE MODELS TURNING INTO QUITE A STORM!...IS THIS GOING TO HAPPEN? WELL, 48 HOURS OUT THINGS CAN STILL CHANGE, BUT I AM VERY CONFIDENT WE WILL GET SOME SORT OF SNOW STORM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THIS TIME, NO QUESTION ABOUT RAIN/SNOW AS THE STORM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ARCTIC AIR, AND WILL HAVE DYNAMIC COOLING AS IT DEEPENS.

SHOULD I SAY BLIZZARD? HINT HINT....

ANYWAY MORE DETAILS LATER.

HAVE A GREAT DAY FOLKS AND BE SAFE!

*****12AM UPDATE***LATEST DATA SUGGESTING...MORE SNOW??? READ BELOW!!********

The Latest data present is suggesting that the heaviest bands of snow will fall from Central NJ through Central CT right through the RIVERTOWNS, Danbury, etc. Map here reflecting my latest thoughts.

EVEN NYC Might see their fairshare of snow!!!

******OKI DOKI HERE WE GO EVENING UPDATE FOR POSSIBLE MAJOR WINTER STORM AHEAD***************

THINGS MOVING QUICKLY FOLKS! QUICKLY!

A Low pressure system will move up the coast this evening (Already at Baltimore as we speak) and move NE offshore intensifying VERY RAPIDLY and dropping nearly 40 MILLIBARS IN THE PROCESS! It will then pass just to the East of Nantucket and continue into the gulf of Maine continuing to intensify.

NOW PROBLEMS: This storm is coming BETWEEN the shots of cold air we have been getting and therefore does not have fresh cold air to work with! This HAS been the case with many of the storms we have had this year! NOW, here is the good news! Because of how FAST this storm will intensify once it hits the coast it will ACTUALLY CREATE ITS OWN COLD AIR SO-TO-SPEAK, with Dynamic Cooling as we weather peeps call it. SO, While there may not be the coldest air at the surface, or even aloft, this storm does have the means to create some big snows!

PRECIPITATION TYPES: Areas on the IMMEDIATE COAST WILL experience a good bout of snow, but will likely change quickly over to a rain/sleet/mix tomorrow midday and maybe even plain rain with the possibility of heading back to all snow, but that will DEFINITELY cut down on the precip amounts.
INLAND AREAS closer to coast will experience a mostly ALL SNOW event with some sleet/ice/rain mixing in midday tomorrow, but it should switch back over to snow before heading out. INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM COAST, AN ALL SNOW SOLUTION HERE! 
COASTAL REGIONS AROUND BOSTON! YOU MAY BE IN TROUBLE! See by the time the system gets up to Boston, or off the shore of Boston, it will be INTENSIFYING MUCH SLOWER! SO, NOT AS MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING GOING ON! It will HAVE TO DEAL with whatever COLD AIR IS LEFT, for the most part!. You might be surprised with less snow, OR more???

The GRADIENT of snow on this storm will be steep ON BOTH SIDES! This is NOT an inland storm...SO ALL Y'ALL UP NORTH - SORRY ITS OUR TURN!!!

COULD THIS BE A TOTAL BUST? YES! AND EITHER WAY! IT could end up being 1-3" and RAIN, or 8+" and ALL SNOW!

BOTTOM LINE IS, THIS WILL BE A WET AND HEAVY SNOW REGARDLESS OF WHERE YOU ARE, WITH THE DEFINITE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ICE ON TOP, SO DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF YOU GET SOME CRUST ON TOP OF WET SNOW!

*********I HIGHLY RECOMMEND AGAINST DRIVING TOMORROW OR GOING PLACES IF NORTH OF NYC AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL REGIONS!*******

TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON MAP BELOW! 

TIMING - LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. DETAILS ON MAP!

SHORT UPDATE COMING BEFORE I GO TO BED, AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING!

******THURSDAY NIGHT ON UPCOMING NOR'EASTER*******

OK, Honestly..I do not want to be doing a post right now because I just do not like the limited amount data that is available at the moment. HOWEVER, as I want to provide the LATEST, AND BEST forecasts for all y'all, here ya go.

I know A lot of you dont like details - IF YOU DO NOT...just scroll to bottom too see forecast and pics for maps on snow. But I think it is important to include the details.

Normally what happens with a Nor'Easter like this in the winter is we get a massive snowstorm. PROBLEM is this storm is arrive just a tad to early before that cold air sets in fully. Now this creates some issues for those who want snow down here. A RAPIDLY (AND I DO MEAN RAPIDLY) Deepening (Intensifying) low will develop off the Gulf of mexico tonight and spread heavy rain across the southern states/SE USA. It will move up the Coast tomorrow and move to a position just about 75-100 miles off the Coast of southern NJ/Delaware mid atlantic by Friday Night. It will continue its trek to the NE and drop 30+ Millibars in less then 24 hours...SO..in other words... it will go BOMBOGENESIS once it hits that warm water. It will move EAST OF Montauk and the Cape/Nantucket by Saturday Night.

With a storm THIS STRONG, AND INTENSIFYING SO RAPIDLY what happens, and this will help us, is that it evaporates and condenses the air so quickly that it actually creates its own cold air. This is called Dynamic cooling..and it can change rain to snow pretty quickly. So this is GOOD! NOW! PROBLEMS...Surface temperatures will be around 30-34° depending on where you are, then colder away from the coast down to high 20's. So...Coastal regions....you may end up with more of that snow/ice/rain mix for a while, which would cut down on Snow amounts. However...I think with this dynamic cooling, and the slightly colder solution that the euro shows we can get more snow. GOOD NEWS, IS THAT THE COLD AIR DOES COME QUICKLY, AND SO IT IS NOT INCONCEIVABLE (Princess Bride quote) THAT WE WOULD HAVE A SNOW TO RAIN/SNOW BACK TO SNOW EVENT!

****************EITHER WAY FOLKS, WE WILL GET SNOW! THIS IS NON-NEGOTIABLE AT THIS POINT. ITS JUST DOWN TO FINE TUNING THE TEMPS AND TRACK OF THIS STORM DOWN THE FEW MILES TO GET EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS.********************

At this point I have limited data, so it is somewhat difficult to PINPOINT exactly whats going on. Maps are posted below, forecast as well.

PLEASE LOOK! GUYS, EITHER WAY THIS SATURDAY WILL BE UGLY!

********FORECAST*********

FRIDAY - Partly Cloudy becoming more cloudy as the system gets closer, Highs in the low 30's.

SATURDAY - SNOW ARRIVING EARLY MORNING, Like 5-6am likely maybe before. Should be light to moderate, Temperatures steady in upper 20's probably. Snow will continue throughout the morning and then likely change to a rain/snow/ice mix for a brief time in the afternoon before turning back to snow and continuing at a heavier clip through the evening and into nighttime at which point it will begin to move out..and completely be outta the area by Sunday morning. Highs on Saturday probably 34-36° in NYC and along immediate coast, to near 40/50 on Long Island. Temps inland from Coast 30-34° and quickly dropping to mid to high 20's during nighttime. As the storm rapidly intensifies off the coast do not be surprised for some gusty winds. 
TIMING - Saturday 5-6am until Saturday Midnight tapering off by Sunday EARLY MORNING.


SUNDAY - Cloudy skies will clear out to partly cloudy skies. Small chance of some snow showers, but nothing much.

MONDAY - Not going to go into detail, but we have ANOTHER possible Storm for Monday/Tuesday. It will cold enough that this would likely be all snow IF and only IF it hits. WILL not KNOW until Saturday night/Sunday on that one.

PLEASE REMEMBER FOLKS THIS MAP WILL LIKELY CHANGE. UPDATED MAP GOING UP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.

THIS, AS ALWAYS IS A TRICKY FORECAST...CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE.

*******TUESDAY NIGHT UPDATE, BIG ONE**********

OK, COUPLE OF THINGS GOING ON HERE....AS OF NOW THIS IS WHERE WE STAND:

1. I DO NOT THINK CLIPPER TOMORROW WARRANTS A SNOW MAP...AS OF NOW. HOWEVER, IF I SEE THAT WE DO NEED ONE TOMORROW I WILL LET YOU KNOW - IT JUST IS SO WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF US, The energy will transfer very quickly to a developing coastal storm (missing us)...I WOULD BE SURPRISED IF WE GET AN INCH AT THIS POINT....THERE ARE POTENTIAL WAYS THIS COULD CHANGE - BUT THE MODELS SEEM PRETTY CONCISE AT THIS POINT IN TIME, and My own thinking does too.

2. We have a VERY possible major storm for this weekend, Saturday Night into Sunday. NOW, at this point...IT COULD ALL CHANGE...I mean the way the models have been acting, tomorrow we could wake up and its gone - but...as of now, it is on the 3 Major models...and all more or less in consensus. So...not going to present specifics, but general Idea:

A pocket of energy will cross into California over the next couple of days and make its way into the gulf where it will form a fairly strong low pressure System. At the same time a fairly strong upper level disturbance will be crossing Southern Canada. Energy will "drop" from this disturbance as our storm moves north from the gulf and will help it rapidly intensify off the Carolina's Coast. It will LIKELY take a NE track while rapidly intensifying off of Long Island and up through the Cape/Nantucket. This storm HAS the potential to be very strong, big winds, and possible big snows...all dependent on its track. We do want it to move west a teeny bit...but NOT too much. We do NOT want it to go east.

So, we will keep the updates coming on this! Models are hinting at an event next week...that's all for now on that. FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE MORE INTO THE SPECIFICS, THE PICTURES POSTED BELOW EXPLAIN IT IN DETAIL!.

***********ALL MAPS/PICTURES COURTESY OF WEATHERBELL/RYAN MAUE*********

****************************FORECAST***********************

WEDNESDAY- Highs in the High 20's to maybe low 30's...Cloudy becoming cloudier, light snow/snow showers developing in the afternoon/late afternoon continuing through the night on and off. Accumulations a dusting to an inch IF we are lucky at this point

THURSDAY - Highs in the low to mid 30's, Snow showers in the morning MAYBE will lead to mostly sunny skies...few clouds probably too.

FRIDAY - Highs in the High 20's to low 30's, partly cloudy on and off.

CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES ON THE POSSIBLE STORM!

********MONDAY NIGHT UPDATE********

*****CONTINUE TO WATCH OUT FOR ANY STANDING WATER FREEZING UP TONIGHT, AND ON UNTREATED SURFACES******

So what do we have going this week!?...Read below and find out smile emoticon

- Clipper will march through the region Wednesday Afternoon through early Thursday Morning. Exact track is still on the table somewhat for Snowfall amounts. No doubt that we will get some SNOW, the question is how much at this point, as is usual with clippers we likely wont know until right as it happens, so keep an eye on the page!

- Hints at a major pattern change this week to the "Snowy" pattern we have all been waiting for. Again the way this winter has been, we could see this change...but I have a feeling not this time.

- The models are HINTING at some sort of Major storm for next week, Monday/Tuesday, again can change any minute..but it is on the table for something to happen, what is not known yet as it is still far out.

- SO did you like the warmup? What you dont remember it!? Well it happened!!!! Get ready to go back into cold cold.

************************FORECAST**************************

TUESDAY - Highs in the low to mid 30's, partly cloudy and winds diminishing from today.

WEDNESDAY - Highs in the High 20's to very low 30's MAYBE. Snow showers/light snow developing in evening and lasting throughout the night into Thursday Morning. This is all I am going to say right now. First precipitation map to come out tomorrow night.
THURSDAY - Highs in the low 30's, snowshowers/light snow in the morning will give way to partly cloudy skies. Maybe a bit of wind.

FRIDAY - Sunny in the High 20's to low 30's Maybe.

*******EVENING UPDATE*******

Rain will continue for the next 4-5 hours and WILL PROBABLY BE HEAVY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THAT TIME. Would not be surprised if we see another 1/2" of rain by the time this is over.

Cold air will sweep in on the backside of the system bringing in cold and dry air. Because of the "DRY" aspect of this air, I doubt we will be seeing the possible end as snow period I talked about last night - MAYBE a few flurries. Should be out of here by Midnight at the latest.

Temperatures will dip back into the mid to high 20's tonight...BE CAREFUL..ALL OF THAT STANDING WATER WILL FREEZE UP!!!
Looking at a VERY POSSIBLE decent Clipper for Wednesday - Will have to wait and see how this shapes up.

Some models indicating a return of the cold in a BIG way - watch out.

Cya folks be safe!!!

************EXTREMELY IMPORTANT UPDATE FOLKS, PLEASE READ*************

EXACTLY WHAT I SAID YESTERDAY WOULD HAPPEN, IS HAPPENING. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE RAIN FALLING, THE GROUND IS COLD ENOUGH THAT IT IS FREEZING ON CONTACT.

I JUST SPENT THE LAST HOUR GETTING MY MOMS CAR UP OUR DRIVEWAY BECAUSE OF THE 1/8" THICK LAYER OF ICE THAT IS ON IT.

THE ROADS ARE SLIPPERY, DILLON REPORTS TO ME THAT THE TACONIC IS CLOSED.

DO NOT TRAVEL, JUST DONT. NOT WORTH IT.

FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY GO UP LATER, BUT IF NOT...JUST KNOW WE HAVE SOME HEAVY HEAVY RAIN HEADING OUR WAY AND IT WILL NOT BE SOAKED UP ON FROZEN GROUND - IT WILL FLOOD.

TRUST DILLON AND I ON THIS. PLEASE.

Latest radar ----> http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast.php

*******SATURDAY EVENING UPDATE, STORM DISCUSSION!**********

****ISSUING A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WARNING FOR SUNDAY MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING*******

****ISSUING A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/MAYBE SNOW/SNIZZLE FOR SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY****
*****ISSUING A POSSIBLE, POSSIBLE PERIOD OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR SWEEPS BACK IN - COULD BE MODERATE FOR 2-4 HOURS, ***IF IT HAPPENS, ONLY IF******
As a very strong upper level disturbance swings through Southern Canada, some of the energy from that will drop down and form a small wave off the edge of a cold front off the coast of the Carolina's....this wave will move NE following the Eastern Seaboard and intensify, and phase its energy as it moves over Long Island/ Southern New England. As it intensifies over S.E. N.E it will jog east a bit...NOW, Dillon and I are going on a hunch here - as it jogs east, it will allow more cold air to infiltrate, and what we think may happen is a BRIEF, 2-4 hours MAX period of snow from NYC/SUBURBS and NE as the precipitation field is thrown back a little bit. NOW, Am I expecting any significant accumulation? NO....is it possible that we do get SOME accumulation? YES! Only time will tell, so we will update on this particular issue tomorrow.

Other problems with this system, and it is illustrated below on the maps, We ONCE again have below freezing temperatures to deal with at the surface, and on the surface..but then we have this NASTY layer of warm air centered around 925mB that will keep the snow from staying snow as it falls, because if you think about it - basically a sandwhich, COLD - WARM - COLD...very frusterating, but hey its the only weather we have lets love it, as Joe Bastardi always says....SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? WELL...Freezing rain will be an IMPORTANT feature of this system as it comes in the morning....
I think enough said...here is our Forecast:

TONIGHT - Clear skies will become overcast towards dawn, temps in the low to mid 20's.

TOMORROW - Rain Showers/Freezing rain, and possibly some snow mixing in the morning will evolve into a steady and MOST PROBABLY HEAVY Rain in the afternoon - GUYS BE CAREFUL! 2" OF RAIN ON FROZEN GROUND WILL FLOOD AND NOT SOAK UP INTO THE GROUND! PLEASE!. Temperatures steady in the mid to upper 30's...I DOUBT we will get past 40°. Also, DO NOT be surprised if you see/hear lightning/thunder.

TOMORROW NIGHT- Rain will taper off in the evening, and WE MIGHT, POSSIBLY END as a BRIEF period of moderate snow as the cold air infiltrates in and the precipitation begins to move out. Temperatures in the low to mid 20's.

Guys, the TOTAL precipitation forecast for our Area is 1.95" of Liquid. Since we are not expecting any snow accumulations, or major ice accumulations, this will be 2" of RAIN. Ground that is frozen does NOT soak up rain. THIS WILL FLOOD! BE CAREFUL ON THE ROADS AND DRIVING!!!

MAPS VERY IMPORTANT, TAKE A LOOK!!!

BE SAFE AND HAVE A GOOD NIGHT FOLKS!

*********TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE*********

OK guys not A LOT going on for us in the next week in terms of weather. Some of you may have seen my comment on weather.com about their post "BIG Pattern change coming", or SOME may have SEEN the headline on their site. WELL...JUST SO WE ARE CLEAR...***************THERE IS NO..I REPEAT NO BIG PATTERN CHANGE****************
Sure, we will see a warmup over the next couple of days STARTING for the weekend..and compared to what WE have experienced this will be a BIG warmup...BUT THE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REALLY GO ABOVE AVERAGE - AND IF THEY DO...ONLY BY ABOUT 3/4°!!!!! 

What is happening, is that the EXTREME Cold Siberian and Arctic air that has been GRIPPING the country for a week or so is RUNNING OUT...Listen folks, THERE ISNT AN ENDLESS SUPPLY OF COLD AIR! AT SOME POINT IT MUST RUN OUT! AND WHEN IT DOES - GUESS WHAT!!! IT GETS A BIT WARMER!!!!

So, when the "Weather Channel" says "BIG PATTERN CHANGE" I GET QUITE UPSET - BECAUSE the OVERALL pattern that is controlling the weather right now, IS NOT CHANGING!!!! AND IN FACT..IF IT DOES CHANGE..which wont be for a couple weeks AT BEST, IT WILL CHANGE TO FAVOR A MORE STORMY AND COLD (possibly) pattern. 

What we are experiencing over the next couple of days, is a short lived, weak warmup from a disapearance of cold air. AND THAT IS IT. No pattern change.

OK ENOUGH OF MY RANTING - JUST HAD TO GET THAT OFF MY CHEST!

SO RIGHT ON TO THE FORECAST SINCE THERE IS NOTHING ELSE TO TALK ABOUT WEATHER WISE

TONIGHT - COLD and clear, Highs in the low to mid teens...pretty much throughout the whole Northeast, Very northern parts along the border will dip into Negatives.

WEDNESDAY - MAYBE, JUST MAYBE Some flurries in the morning but I DOUBT it..and that would only be for NYC and south. Otherwise, mostly sunny Highs near 30° getting into 20's and teens farther North and West of NYC.

THURSDAY - The coastal storm that WAS SUPPOSED TO SLAM US..well it decided to fizzle up and develop WAY out to sea...so NO STORM, instead Highs just around 30°, again colder N/W of NYC..sunny.   (Dillon and I are VERY upset about this...sunniness..so is the rest of the weather weenie world  )

FRIDAY - Sunny, windy too Highs in HIGH 20°'s...into low 20°'s Upstate and North/West of NYC.

SATURDAY - Temps steady near 30-32° colder as you get farther north and e/w of NYC. Sunny.

Getting into Sunday/monday we have a POSSIBLE..and I will be very cautious about this, but a possible event for that time period. At this point that is all I will say.

Will post again Thursday, unless something comes up!

TEMPS - Just wanted to show you actual temps for the winter so far and the AVERAGE temps for same period of time! Orange line is Average, Actual temps in Blue....VERY INTERESTING!!!! SO...when you see Weather.com and they say we are ABOVE THE AVERAGE TEMPS, SHOW THEM THIS CHART!

**************SUNDAY EVENING UPDATE ON OUR STORM FOR TOMORROW************

*****PUTTING OUT AN ALERT FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN, ICE PELLETS AND SNOW/SLEET FOR TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON******

*****ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY, ICEY, NOT GOING TO BE A GOOD COMMUTE TOMORROW*******

********CALLING FOR MORE A WINTRY STORM FOR THE SUBURBS THEN MANY THINK...IMPORTANT**************

OK FOLKS, once again, as it seems with all of these storms this year, another hard forecast as the boundaries of precip types, amounts, etc. are EXTREMELY close yet again.

A weak low pressure system/overrunning system will continue to form in the Ohio valley tonight and move eastward with a swath of rain to the south and ice/sleet to all snow to the north. THIS IS NOT like the last storm where it took a northerly track over the lakes and was able to bring in all that warm air that brought the highs in to the 50's. This is also where we run into trouble with this storm. It is NOT bringing in much warm air if any at all, and therefore is dealing with whatever arctic air is left in the atmosphere as it moves through.

As usual, the forecast that Dillon and I made for this storm is more RISKY then the major weather sites and other people. But, this is what we feel will happen, and what my gut is saying. I will explain it all below.

***************************************

OVER THE PAST WEEK almost, our area has experienced record cold temperatures as all of you have known. In addition to this we have had a 2" layer of snow on the ground for a good portion of that time of extreme cold. SNOW refrigerates the air, and keeps it cooler, so for the past 4-5 days the snow on the ground has been refrigerating the air. Consequently, the forecast temps for our area have been MUCH warmer then the actual temps have gotten too. We have been averaging around 4° or more below the forecast temps, and this will factor into tomorrow's forecast.

As the system comes through the area, it will have ALOT of moisture to deal with, and the convection looks to be strong, especially up in the upper levels of the system where the air is perfect for snow.

SO, TO CONCLUDE, WHEN I SEE THE MAJOR SITES SAYING AN ICEY RAIN/SNOW MIX TO AN ALL RAIN EVENT..., AND THEN I LOOK AT THE RAW DATA - I SEE 2 COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.....AND PERSONALLY, I TRUST THE RAW DATA (Which Dillon and I still have to interpret) ALOT BETTER!

Here is the forecast:

TONIGHT - Light snow/sleet will break out in the wee hours of the morning, temps steady in the High 20's/VERY LOW 30's. I would say the earliest time precip will be beginning is 6-7am. 
MONDAY - Light snow/sleet will transition rather quickly to a freezing rain. GUYS, the TEMPS aloft ARE REALLY COLD! AND THE TEMPS ON THE GROUND ARE ALSO REALLY COLD! IT IS THE TEMPS FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 500-1000 FEET THAT ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE LIQUID TO MELT, AND THEN FREEZE ON CONTACT!!!! DANGOROUS STUFF! Freezing rain/ice pellets will transition to a period of rain in the middle of the day, but not for long and then BACK to a SNOW/RAIN MIX....GUYS, I AM BETTING ON MORE OF A SNOW then RAIN MIX here. Temps will RISE to the low to mid 30's by afternoon. Suburbs north of NYC...I DOUBT we will get above 34°. To the North and WEST expect HIGHS in the high 20's to very low 30's.
Map is attached to show the different precip types, accumulations.
TOTAL DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS:
SNOW - .5-1", MAYBE 1-2" IF WE ARE LUCKY
ICE - 0.10"-.25" - GUYS THIS IS BAD, ICE BAD!!!
Storm will move out in the evening/night hours and COLD air will follow.

*********************SNOW DAY PREDICTION/OPINION FOR THOSE WHO CARE************

Personally, given the type of precipitation, and the timing of the ice (morning) and then the change to snow/rain - I DO THINK there SHOULD be a snowday. BUT THIS IS NOT! AGAIN NOT! MY DECISION! Just my opinion!

********************Dillon will UPDATE THIS TOMORROW BETWEEN 5-6AM********************************************************************

MONDAY NIGHT - STORM CLEARING OUT, TEMPS GOING DOWN TO LOW TO MID 20'S

TUESDAY - SUNNY, highs in the low to mid 20's

WEDNESDAY - Partly sunny chance of a few flurries in the morning, highs near 30°

MAPS BELOW.

*********UPDATE COMING AROUND 5-6AM TOMORROW*********