**********VERY IMPORTANT 5:30 AM UPDATE**********

Last night some of the models had Remy and I VERY CONCERNED that the storm was going to be further offshore and therefore we would receive a much reduced amount of snow. However, the European model, which is highly trusted among many meteorologists, has been consistent in its last four runs printing 24"+ across the area. Additionally, the model runs that were portraying a faster and more offshore system have since returned to something closer to that of the European model. 

With that being said, we will NOT make any changes as of now to our current snowfall map as we still believe everything is in place for a MAJOR blizzard. Those of you under the 18-24" range (lower Hudson Valley, NE New Jersey, Long Island, and coastal New England) should be on guard for blizzard-like conditions beginning late Monday night and continuing through the early afternoon on Tuesday. Additionally, mesoscale banding (essentially VERY heavy bands of snow) will set up somewhere across the aforementioned area, creating a "sweet spot" for snowfall (30 INCHES PLUS)... however, predicting exactly where these bands will form is nearly impossible this far in advance.

The timing of the storm has also remained the same. During the day on Monday, most areas can expect between 1-3" of snow before nightfall as the clipper arrives. Come this evening, the snow will pick up in intensity as the storm stalls and strengthens off the New Jersey coast. We are highlighting the time period from LATE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON as the period of the heaviest snowfall. Snowfall rates could approach FOUR INCHES PER HOUR. Tuesday evening the storm should begin to wind down with little additional accumulation. For total accumulations in your area, refer to the map below. Then it gets COLD.

Folks, this is a VERY dangerous storm. If you do not have to travel, DON'T. At the height of the storm, some roads will likely be IMPASSABLE and power outages are very possible. Make sure you are prepared with food, water, flashlights, batteries, and plenty of warm clothing/blankets. This storm will most likely go down in the record books.

******IMPORTANT SMALL UPDATE FOLKS*******

*****PLEASE READ
EVEN THOUGH THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS NOT TOMORROW DAYTIME, THE 1-3" FOR TOMORROW COULD EASILY BECOME 2-4" OR MORE AS THE EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO MUCH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS - SO TRAVELLING PEEPS BE CAREFUL. BE CAREFUL GETTING TO AND FROM SCHOOL!

FELLOW CLASSMATES, MAKE SURE YOU GOT RIDES TO AND FROM SCHOOL IF NOT TAKING THE BUS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON!

*******FIRST SNOW MAP CALL FOR STORM TOMORROW BASED OFF OF THE Euro, GFS, NAM, NAM 4KM WRF, UKMET, AND CANADIAN MODELS********* 3PM UPDATE

OK, I am going to Explain this map - as some things are hard to draw in!

Areas in red I think will generally get the most out of this storm, as the bulls eye's are here on most of the models. HOWEVER, WE WILL NOT KNOW THIS FOR SURE UNTIL IT HAPPENS AND WE CAN SEE THE BANDING BEING SET UP. Models have a tough time with banding. the STARS indicate chances for localized amounts upwards of 30" possible.

THE REASON, I do not extend the red all the way to the MA Coast and Nantucket is that I see a SLIGHT chance of some mixing as the low swings past, bringing temperatures aloft to 1-2°C...However, this is a very tough call...they may very well end up with more.

Areas in Orange, So Around Poughkeepsie to Hudson/Albany and then West through Northern NJ and PA, East to just West of Boston, I am pretty solid on 14-18" with Localized Higher amounts.

Areas in Purple, and I include Boston in this, but they very well might end up with higher amounts, 10-14" with higher elevation areas receiving more.

AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY, to the NW 6-10"...this is starting to get to the outer edges of the storm IN BLUE

North WEST and NoRTH OF THAT, Central NY to Northern VT/NH...Sorry buds, Likely 1-4, 3-6" or around there.

ANY QUESTIONS, JUST PM ME. FULL UPDATE THIS EVENING.
NOTHING ELSE CHANGING! 

*******MIDDAY UPDATE FOLKS - THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG ONE-*******

BRIEF UPDATE NOW, BIGGER ONE WITH 12Z EURO, AND FULL ONE THIS EVENING ONCE ALL MODELS OUT.

***I WOULD START MAKING SURE YOU HAVE GAS, FOOD, WATER, A GENERATOR THAT WORKS (IF YOU HAVE ONE ALREADY), GAS FOR SNOWBLOWERS, SALT, SHOVELS....ALL HANDS ON DECK??-****

First snow map will go out with the 12z Euro, but JUST to give you an idea, Amounts of 1-2' with Localized amounts maybe up to 3' in DRIFTS from Central Jersey through to Boston and Southern New England.

BLIZZARD WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE UP! FOLKS THIS MEANS WINDS OF 3-40MPH GUSTS TO 50MPH OR MORE!

TIMING - Light snow will arrive Monday 1AM, MEANING TONIGHT! Lasting through tomorrow afternoon, 1-3" most likely, then a LULL in the precipitation, then light snow turning to heavy snow Monday night, 8-12", HEAVIEST snow Tuesday morning through afternoon an addition 8-12" OR MORE will not be UNEXPECTED OR UNCOMMON I THINK! BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MORE UPDATES COMING IN AN HOUR!

*******HOLY MOTHER OF GOODDDDD******

ALL I GOTTA SAY - IS WOW!

OK FOLKS Here is the deal - LATEST EURO Models just came in, and Right or wrong on the specific snow amounts - THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF MAJOR MAJOR SNOW STORM/BLIZZARD Monday Night into Wednesday EARLY morning, spreading HUGE snow accumulations.

DO I want to jump the gun? NO, but I do feel that this is more or less set in stone - that is the event.

SPECIFIC snow totals we will get too later.

ALL of us Highschoolers with Midterms - well I frankly do not know what they do, if we miss school, but - extra studying time!

Right now we have 4 of the MAJOR models agreeing on a WIDESPREAD MASSIVE STORM WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

MORE LATER!!!

********SATURDAY EVENING UPDATE - GUYS ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM ON THE WAY*********

********SATURDAY EVENING UPDATE - GUYS ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM ON THE WAY*********

ONE STORM DONE, AND ANOTHER ON THE WAY! 

A Clipper will be moving through the area Sunday Night into Monday, and at the same time a Coastal Storm will be moving up the coast. NOW, when they intersect there is a HUGE POTENTIAL for them to BOMB and create a pretty darn big storm. 

RIGHT NOW, timing would be Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Night, POSSIBLY Wednesday Morning.

POTENTIAL IS BIG HERE FOLKS - MOST MODELS AGREEING ON A HUGE SNOW. GRANTED, A LOT CAN CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, ********SO THIS IS IN NO WAY A FORECAST*******

JUST A HINT - THAT IF THE 3 DIFFERENT MODELS (WHO ARE MORE OR LESS IN AGREEMENT) #'S PAN OUT - WE COULD BE LOOKING AT QUITE A HISTORIC STORM FOR ANYBODY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

THERE WILL BE NO QUESTION ABOUT RAIN/SNOW WITH THIS STORM - IT WILL BE ALL SNOW IF IT COMES TO FRUITION. 

KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THE UPDATES COMING FROM THIS PAGE.

OTHER NEWS - INTENSE COLD COMING, Guys this could DEFINITELY rival the cold we saw a few weeks ago. Arctic Front will move through TOMORROW night and usher in a potential 15 DAYS OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS!....

Get ready - WINTER HAS STARTED!!!

**********************FORECAST*********************

TONIGHT - Rain/snow showers ending before midnight, colder in the low to mid 20's - WATCH FOR BLACK ICE! ANY MELTED SNOW/WATER WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO FREEZE.

SUNDAY - Sunny, Highs in the low to mid 30's and dropping

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT FOLKS!

********MIDDAY SATURDAY UPDATE************

VERY HAPPY TODAY AS I THINK I NAILED THAT FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS, TOTAL SNOWFALL HERE AT MY HOUSE WAS 6.8" IN THE DRIVEWAY NO DRIFTS AWAY FROM TREES... SO RIGHT IN THE 4-8/5-8" THAT I POSTED LAST NIGHT.

NOW...WHATS NEXT!

WELL, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY STEADY IN THE LOW 30'S TODAY, AND AS THE LOW DEEPENS A BIT MORE WE WILL GET ANOTHER LIGHT BOUT OF SNOW/RAIN/SLEET THIS AFTERNOON. - ACCUMULATIONS? PROBABLY LESS THEN AN INCH.

ARCTIC AIR WILL COME IN TOMORROW NIGHT, AND WITH IT A CLIPPER - NOW, THIS CLIPPER RIGHT NOW IS SHOWING UP ON THE MODELS TURNING INTO QUITE A STORM!...IS THIS GOING TO HAPPEN? WELL, 48 HOURS OUT THINGS CAN STILL CHANGE, BUT I AM VERY CONFIDENT WE WILL GET SOME SORT OF SNOW STORM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THIS TIME, NO QUESTION ABOUT RAIN/SNOW AS THE STORM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ARCTIC AIR, AND WILL HAVE DYNAMIC COOLING AS IT DEEPENS.

SHOULD I SAY BLIZZARD? HINT HINT....

ANYWAY MORE DETAILS LATER.

HAVE A GREAT DAY FOLKS AND BE SAFE!

*****12AM UPDATE***LATEST DATA SUGGESTING...MORE SNOW??? READ BELOW!!********

The Latest data present is suggesting that the heaviest bands of snow will fall from Central NJ through Central CT right through the RIVERTOWNS, Danbury, etc. Map here reflecting my latest thoughts.

EVEN NYC Might see their fairshare of snow!!!

******OKI DOKI HERE WE GO EVENING UPDATE FOR POSSIBLE MAJOR WINTER STORM AHEAD***************

THINGS MOVING QUICKLY FOLKS! QUICKLY!

A Low pressure system will move up the coast this evening (Already at Baltimore as we speak) and move NE offshore intensifying VERY RAPIDLY and dropping nearly 40 MILLIBARS IN THE PROCESS! It will then pass just to the East of Nantucket and continue into the gulf of Maine continuing to intensify.

NOW PROBLEMS: This storm is coming BETWEEN the shots of cold air we have been getting and therefore does not have fresh cold air to work with! This HAS been the case with many of the storms we have had this year! NOW, here is the good news! Because of how FAST this storm will intensify once it hits the coast it will ACTUALLY CREATE ITS OWN COLD AIR SO-TO-SPEAK, with Dynamic Cooling as we weather peeps call it. SO, While there may not be the coldest air at the surface, or even aloft, this storm does have the means to create some big snows!

PRECIPITATION TYPES: Areas on the IMMEDIATE COAST WILL experience a good bout of snow, but will likely change quickly over to a rain/sleet/mix tomorrow midday and maybe even plain rain with the possibility of heading back to all snow, but that will DEFINITELY cut down on the precip amounts.
INLAND AREAS closer to coast will experience a mostly ALL SNOW event with some sleet/ice/rain mixing in midday tomorrow, but it should switch back over to snow before heading out. INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM COAST, AN ALL SNOW SOLUTION HERE! 
COASTAL REGIONS AROUND BOSTON! YOU MAY BE IN TROUBLE! See by the time the system gets up to Boston, or off the shore of Boston, it will be INTENSIFYING MUCH SLOWER! SO, NOT AS MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING GOING ON! It will HAVE TO DEAL with whatever COLD AIR IS LEFT, for the most part!. You might be surprised with less snow, OR more???

The GRADIENT of snow on this storm will be steep ON BOTH SIDES! This is NOT an inland storm...SO ALL Y'ALL UP NORTH - SORRY ITS OUR TURN!!!

COULD THIS BE A TOTAL BUST? YES! AND EITHER WAY! IT could end up being 1-3" and RAIN, or 8+" and ALL SNOW!

BOTTOM LINE IS, THIS WILL BE A WET AND HEAVY SNOW REGARDLESS OF WHERE YOU ARE, WITH THE DEFINITE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ICE ON TOP, SO DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF YOU GET SOME CRUST ON TOP OF WET SNOW!

*********I HIGHLY RECOMMEND AGAINST DRIVING TOMORROW OR GOING PLACES IF NORTH OF NYC AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL REGIONS!*******

TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON MAP BELOW! 

TIMING - LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. DETAILS ON MAP!

SHORT UPDATE COMING BEFORE I GO TO BED, AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING!

******THURSDAY NIGHT ON UPCOMING NOR'EASTER*******

OK, Honestly..I do not want to be doing a post right now because I just do not like the limited amount data that is available at the moment. HOWEVER, as I want to provide the LATEST, AND BEST forecasts for all y'all, here ya go.

I know A lot of you dont like details - IF YOU DO NOT...just scroll to bottom too see forecast and pics for maps on snow. But I think it is important to include the details.

Normally what happens with a Nor'Easter like this in the winter is we get a massive snowstorm. PROBLEM is this storm is arrive just a tad to early before that cold air sets in fully. Now this creates some issues for those who want snow down here. A RAPIDLY (AND I DO MEAN RAPIDLY) Deepening (Intensifying) low will develop off the Gulf of mexico tonight and spread heavy rain across the southern states/SE USA. It will move up the Coast tomorrow and move to a position just about 75-100 miles off the Coast of southern NJ/Delaware mid atlantic by Friday Night. It will continue its trek to the NE and drop 30+ Millibars in less then 24 hours...SO..in other words... it will go BOMBOGENESIS once it hits that warm water. It will move EAST OF Montauk and the Cape/Nantucket by Saturday Night.

With a storm THIS STRONG, AND INTENSIFYING SO RAPIDLY what happens, and this will help us, is that it evaporates and condenses the air so quickly that it actually creates its own cold air. This is called Dynamic cooling..and it can change rain to snow pretty quickly. So this is GOOD! NOW! PROBLEMS...Surface temperatures will be around 30-34° depending on where you are, then colder away from the coast down to high 20's. So...Coastal regions....you may end up with more of that snow/ice/rain mix for a while, which would cut down on Snow amounts. However...I think with this dynamic cooling, and the slightly colder solution that the euro shows we can get more snow. GOOD NEWS, IS THAT THE COLD AIR DOES COME QUICKLY, AND SO IT IS NOT INCONCEIVABLE (Princess Bride quote) THAT WE WOULD HAVE A SNOW TO RAIN/SNOW BACK TO SNOW EVENT!

****************EITHER WAY FOLKS, WE WILL GET SNOW! THIS IS NON-NEGOTIABLE AT THIS POINT. ITS JUST DOWN TO FINE TUNING THE TEMPS AND TRACK OF THIS STORM DOWN THE FEW MILES TO GET EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS.********************

At this point I have limited data, so it is somewhat difficult to PINPOINT exactly whats going on. Maps are posted below, forecast as well.

PLEASE LOOK! GUYS, EITHER WAY THIS SATURDAY WILL BE UGLY!

********FORECAST*********

FRIDAY - Partly Cloudy becoming more cloudy as the system gets closer, Highs in the low 30's.

SATURDAY - SNOW ARRIVING EARLY MORNING, Like 5-6am likely maybe before. Should be light to moderate, Temperatures steady in upper 20's probably. Snow will continue throughout the morning and then likely change to a rain/snow/ice mix for a brief time in the afternoon before turning back to snow and continuing at a heavier clip through the evening and into nighttime at which point it will begin to move out..and completely be outta the area by Sunday morning. Highs on Saturday probably 34-36° in NYC and along immediate coast, to near 40/50 on Long Island. Temps inland from Coast 30-34° and quickly dropping to mid to high 20's during nighttime. As the storm rapidly intensifies off the coast do not be surprised for some gusty winds. 
TIMING - Saturday 5-6am until Saturday Midnight tapering off by Sunday EARLY MORNING.


SUNDAY - Cloudy skies will clear out to partly cloudy skies. Small chance of some snow showers, but nothing much.

MONDAY - Not going to go into detail, but we have ANOTHER possible Storm for Monday/Tuesday. It will cold enough that this would likely be all snow IF and only IF it hits. WILL not KNOW until Saturday night/Sunday on that one.

PLEASE REMEMBER FOLKS THIS MAP WILL LIKELY CHANGE. UPDATED MAP GOING UP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.

THIS, AS ALWAYS IS A TRICKY FORECAST...CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE.

*******TUESDAY NIGHT UPDATE, BIG ONE**********

OK, COUPLE OF THINGS GOING ON HERE....AS OF NOW THIS IS WHERE WE STAND:

1. I DO NOT THINK CLIPPER TOMORROW WARRANTS A SNOW MAP...AS OF NOW. HOWEVER, IF I SEE THAT WE DO NEED ONE TOMORROW I WILL LET YOU KNOW - IT JUST IS SO WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF US, The energy will transfer very quickly to a developing coastal storm (missing us)...I WOULD BE SURPRISED IF WE GET AN INCH AT THIS POINT....THERE ARE POTENTIAL WAYS THIS COULD CHANGE - BUT THE MODELS SEEM PRETTY CONCISE AT THIS POINT IN TIME, and My own thinking does too.

2. We have a VERY possible major storm for this weekend, Saturday Night into Sunday. NOW, at this point...IT COULD ALL CHANGE...I mean the way the models have been acting, tomorrow we could wake up and its gone - but...as of now, it is on the 3 Major models...and all more or less in consensus. So...not going to present specifics, but general Idea:

A pocket of energy will cross into California over the next couple of days and make its way into the gulf where it will form a fairly strong low pressure System. At the same time a fairly strong upper level disturbance will be crossing Southern Canada. Energy will "drop" from this disturbance as our storm moves north from the gulf and will help it rapidly intensify off the Carolina's Coast. It will LIKELY take a NE track while rapidly intensifying off of Long Island and up through the Cape/Nantucket. This storm HAS the potential to be very strong, big winds, and possible big snows...all dependent on its track. We do want it to move west a teeny bit...but NOT too much. We do NOT want it to go east.

So, we will keep the updates coming on this! Models are hinting at an event next week...that's all for now on that. FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE MORE INTO THE SPECIFICS, THE PICTURES POSTED BELOW EXPLAIN IT IN DETAIL!.

***********ALL MAPS/PICTURES COURTESY OF WEATHERBELL/RYAN MAUE*********

****************************FORECAST***********************

WEDNESDAY- Highs in the High 20's to maybe low 30's...Cloudy becoming cloudier, light snow/snow showers developing in the afternoon/late afternoon continuing through the night on and off. Accumulations a dusting to an inch IF we are lucky at this point

THURSDAY - Highs in the low to mid 30's, Snow showers in the morning MAYBE will lead to mostly sunny skies...few clouds probably too.

FRIDAY - Highs in the High 20's to low 30's, partly cloudy on and off.

CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES ON THE POSSIBLE STORM!

********MONDAY NIGHT UPDATE********

*****CONTINUE TO WATCH OUT FOR ANY STANDING WATER FREEZING UP TONIGHT, AND ON UNTREATED SURFACES******

So what do we have going this week!?...Read below and find out smile emoticon

- Clipper will march through the region Wednesday Afternoon through early Thursday Morning. Exact track is still on the table somewhat for Snowfall amounts. No doubt that we will get some SNOW, the question is how much at this point, as is usual with clippers we likely wont know until right as it happens, so keep an eye on the page!

- Hints at a major pattern change this week to the "Snowy" pattern we have all been waiting for. Again the way this winter has been, we could see this change...but I have a feeling not this time.

- The models are HINTING at some sort of Major storm for next week, Monday/Tuesday, again can change any minute..but it is on the table for something to happen, what is not known yet as it is still far out.

- SO did you like the warmup? What you dont remember it!? Well it happened!!!! Get ready to go back into cold cold.

************************FORECAST**************************

TUESDAY - Highs in the low to mid 30's, partly cloudy and winds diminishing from today.

WEDNESDAY - Highs in the High 20's to very low 30's MAYBE. Snow showers/light snow developing in evening and lasting throughout the night into Thursday Morning. This is all I am going to say right now. First precipitation map to come out tomorrow night.
THURSDAY - Highs in the low 30's, snowshowers/light snow in the morning will give way to partly cloudy skies. Maybe a bit of wind.

FRIDAY - Sunny in the High 20's to low 30's Maybe.

*******EVENING UPDATE*******

Rain will continue for the next 4-5 hours and WILL PROBABLY BE HEAVY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THAT TIME. Would not be surprised if we see another 1/2" of rain by the time this is over.

Cold air will sweep in on the backside of the system bringing in cold and dry air. Because of the "DRY" aspect of this air, I doubt we will be seeing the possible end as snow period I talked about last night - MAYBE a few flurries. Should be out of here by Midnight at the latest.

Temperatures will dip back into the mid to high 20's tonight...BE CAREFUL..ALL OF THAT STANDING WATER WILL FREEZE UP!!!
Looking at a VERY POSSIBLE decent Clipper for Wednesday - Will have to wait and see how this shapes up.

Some models indicating a return of the cold in a BIG way - watch out.

Cya folks be safe!!!

************EXTREMELY IMPORTANT UPDATE FOLKS, PLEASE READ*************

EXACTLY WHAT I SAID YESTERDAY WOULD HAPPEN, IS HAPPENING. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE RAIN FALLING, THE GROUND IS COLD ENOUGH THAT IT IS FREEZING ON CONTACT.

I JUST SPENT THE LAST HOUR GETTING MY MOMS CAR UP OUR DRIVEWAY BECAUSE OF THE 1/8" THICK LAYER OF ICE THAT IS ON IT.

THE ROADS ARE SLIPPERY, DILLON REPORTS TO ME THAT THE TACONIC IS CLOSED.

DO NOT TRAVEL, JUST DONT. NOT WORTH IT.

FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY GO UP LATER, BUT IF NOT...JUST KNOW WE HAVE SOME HEAVY HEAVY RAIN HEADING OUR WAY AND IT WILL NOT BE SOAKED UP ON FROZEN GROUND - IT WILL FLOOD.

TRUST DILLON AND I ON THIS. PLEASE.

Latest radar ----> http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast.php

*******SATURDAY EVENING UPDATE, STORM DISCUSSION!**********

****ISSUING A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WARNING FOR SUNDAY MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING*******

****ISSUING A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/MAYBE SNOW/SNIZZLE FOR SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY****
*****ISSUING A POSSIBLE, POSSIBLE PERIOD OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR SWEEPS BACK IN - COULD BE MODERATE FOR 2-4 HOURS, ***IF IT HAPPENS, ONLY IF******
As a very strong upper level disturbance swings through Southern Canada, some of the energy from that will drop down and form a small wave off the edge of a cold front off the coast of the Carolina's....this wave will move NE following the Eastern Seaboard and intensify, and phase its energy as it moves over Long Island/ Southern New England. As it intensifies over S.E. N.E it will jog east a bit...NOW, Dillon and I are going on a hunch here - as it jogs east, it will allow more cold air to infiltrate, and what we think may happen is a BRIEF, 2-4 hours MAX period of snow from NYC/SUBURBS and NE as the precipitation field is thrown back a little bit. NOW, Am I expecting any significant accumulation? NO....is it possible that we do get SOME accumulation? YES! Only time will tell, so we will update on this particular issue tomorrow.

Other problems with this system, and it is illustrated below on the maps, We ONCE again have below freezing temperatures to deal with at the surface, and on the surface..but then we have this NASTY layer of warm air centered around 925mB that will keep the snow from staying snow as it falls, because if you think about it - basically a sandwhich, COLD - WARM - COLD...very frusterating, but hey its the only weather we have lets love it, as Joe Bastardi always says....SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? WELL...Freezing rain will be an IMPORTANT feature of this system as it comes in the morning....
I think enough said...here is our Forecast:

TONIGHT - Clear skies will become overcast towards dawn, temps in the low to mid 20's.

TOMORROW - Rain Showers/Freezing rain, and possibly some snow mixing in the morning will evolve into a steady and MOST PROBABLY HEAVY Rain in the afternoon - GUYS BE CAREFUL! 2" OF RAIN ON FROZEN GROUND WILL FLOOD AND NOT SOAK UP INTO THE GROUND! PLEASE!. Temperatures steady in the mid to upper 30's...I DOUBT we will get past 40°. Also, DO NOT be surprised if you see/hear lightning/thunder.

TOMORROW NIGHT- Rain will taper off in the evening, and WE MIGHT, POSSIBLY END as a BRIEF period of moderate snow as the cold air infiltrates in and the precipitation begins to move out. Temperatures in the low to mid 20's.

Guys, the TOTAL precipitation forecast for our Area is 1.95" of Liquid. Since we are not expecting any snow accumulations, or major ice accumulations, this will be 2" of RAIN. Ground that is frozen does NOT soak up rain. THIS WILL FLOOD! BE CAREFUL ON THE ROADS AND DRIVING!!!

MAPS VERY IMPORTANT, TAKE A LOOK!!!

BE SAFE AND HAVE A GOOD NIGHT FOLKS!

*********TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE*********

OK guys not A LOT going on for us in the next week in terms of weather. Some of you may have seen my comment on weather.com about their post "BIG Pattern change coming", or SOME may have SEEN the headline on their site. WELL...JUST SO WE ARE CLEAR...***************THERE IS NO..I REPEAT NO BIG PATTERN CHANGE****************
Sure, we will see a warmup over the next couple of days STARTING for the weekend..and compared to what WE have experienced this will be a BIG warmup...BUT THE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REALLY GO ABOVE AVERAGE - AND IF THEY DO...ONLY BY ABOUT 3/4°!!!!! 

What is happening, is that the EXTREME Cold Siberian and Arctic air that has been GRIPPING the country for a week or so is RUNNING OUT...Listen folks, THERE ISNT AN ENDLESS SUPPLY OF COLD AIR! AT SOME POINT IT MUST RUN OUT! AND WHEN IT DOES - GUESS WHAT!!! IT GETS A BIT WARMER!!!!

So, when the "Weather Channel" says "BIG PATTERN CHANGE" I GET QUITE UPSET - BECAUSE the OVERALL pattern that is controlling the weather right now, IS NOT CHANGING!!!! AND IN FACT..IF IT DOES CHANGE..which wont be for a couple weeks AT BEST, IT WILL CHANGE TO FAVOR A MORE STORMY AND COLD (possibly) pattern. 

What we are experiencing over the next couple of days, is a short lived, weak warmup from a disapearance of cold air. AND THAT IS IT. No pattern change.

OK ENOUGH OF MY RANTING - JUST HAD TO GET THAT OFF MY CHEST!

SO RIGHT ON TO THE FORECAST SINCE THERE IS NOTHING ELSE TO TALK ABOUT WEATHER WISE

TONIGHT - COLD and clear, Highs in the low to mid teens...pretty much throughout the whole Northeast, Very northern parts along the border will dip into Negatives.

WEDNESDAY - MAYBE, JUST MAYBE Some flurries in the morning but I DOUBT it..and that would only be for NYC and south. Otherwise, mostly sunny Highs near 30° getting into 20's and teens farther North and West of NYC.

THURSDAY - The coastal storm that WAS SUPPOSED TO SLAM US..well it decided to fizzle up and develop WAY out to sea...so NO STORM, instead Highs just around 30°, again colder N/W of NYC..sunny.   (Dillon and I are VERY upset about this...sunniness..so is the rest of the weather weenie world  )

FRIDAY - Sunny, windy too Highs in HIGH 20°'s...into low 20°'s Upstate and North/West of NYC.

SATURDAY - Temps steady near 30-32° colder as you get farther north and e/w of NYC. Sunny.

Getting into Sunday/monday we have a POSSIBLE..and I will be very cautious about this, but a possible event for that time period. At this point that is all I will say.

Will post again Thursday, unless something comes up!

TEMPS - Just wanted to show you actual temps for the winter so far and the AVERAGE temps for same period of time! Orange line is Average, Actual temps in Blue....VERY INTERESTING!!!! SO...when you see Weather.com and they say we are ABOVE THE AVERAGE TEMPS, SHOW THEM THIS CHART!

**************SUNDAY EVENING UPDATE ON OUR STORM FOR TOMORROW************

*****PUTTING OUT AN ALERT FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN, ICE PELLETS AND SNOW/SLEET FOR TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON******

*****ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY, ICEY, NOT GOING TO BE A GOOD COMMUTE TOMORROW*******

********CALLING FOR MORE A WINTRY STORM FOR THE SUBURBS THEN MANY THINK...IMPORTANT**************

OK FOLKS, once again, as it seems with all of these storms this year, another hard forecast as the boundaries of precip types, amounts, etc. are EXTREMELY close yet again.

A weak low pressure system/overrunning system will continue to form in the Ohio valley tonight and move eastward with a swath of rain to the south and ice/sleet to all snow to the north. THIS IS NOT like the last storm where it took a northerly track over the lakes and was able to bring in all that warm air that brought the highs in to the 50's. This is also where we run into trouble with this storm. It is NOT bringing in much warm air if any at all, and therefore is dealing with whatever arctic air is left in the atmosphere as it moves through.

As usual, the forecast that Dillon and I made for this storm is more RISKY then the major weather sites and other people. But, this is what we feel will happen, and what my gut is saying. I will explain it all below.

***************************************

OVER THE PAST WEEK almost, our area has experienced record cold temperatures as all of you have known. In addition to this we have had a 2" layer of snow on the ground for a good portion of that time of extreme cold. SNOW refrigerates the air, and keeps it cooler, so for the past 4-5 days the snow on the ground has been refrigerating the air. Consequently, the forecast temps for our area have been MUCH warmer then the actual temps have gotten too. We have been averaging around 4° or more below the forecast temps, and this will factor into tomorrow's forecast.

As the system comes through the area, it will have ALOT of moisture to deal with, and the convection looks to be strong, especially up in the upper levels of the system where the air is perfect for snow.

SO, TO CONCLUDE, WHEN I SEE THE MAJOR SITES SAYING AN ICEY RAIN/SNOW MIX TO AN ALL RAIN EVENT..., AND THEN I LOOK AT THE RAW DATA - I SEE 2 COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.....AND PERSONALLY, I TRUST THE RAW DATA (Which Dillon and I still have to interpret) ALOT BETTER!

Here is the forecast:

TONIGHT - Light snow/sleet will break out in the wee hours of the morning, temps steady in the High 20's/VERY LOW 30's. I would say the earliest time precip will be beginning is 6-7am. 
MONDAY - Light snow/sleet will transition rather quickly to a freezing rain. GUYS, the TEMPS aloft ARE REALLY COLD! AND THE TEMPS ON THE GROUND ARE ALSO REALLY COLD! IT IS THE TEMPS FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 500-1000 FEET THAT ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE LIQUID TO MELT, AND THEN FREEZE ON CONTACT!!!! DANGOROUS STUFF! Freezing rain/ice pellets will transition to a period of rain in the middle of the day, but not for long and then BACK to a SNOW/RAIN MIX....GUYS, I AM BETTING ON MORE OF A SNOW then RAIN MIX here. Temps will RISE to the low to mid 30's by afternoon. Suburbs north of NYC...I DOUBT we will get above 34°. To the North and WEST expect HIGHS in the high 20's to very low 30's.
Map is attached to show the different precip types, accumulations.
TOTAL DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS:
SNOW - .5-1", MAYBE 1-2" IF WE ARE LUCKY
ICE - 0.10"-.25" - GUYS THIS IS BAD, ICE BAD!!!
Storm will move out in the evening/night hours and COLD air will follow.

*********************SNOW DAY PREDICTION/OPINION FOR THOSE WHO CARE************

Personally, given the type of precipitation, and the timing of the ice (morning) and then the change to snow/rain - I DO THINK there SHOULD be a snowday. BUT THIS IS NOT! AGAIN NOT! MY DECISION! Just my opinion!

********************Dillon will UPDATE THIS TOMORROW BETWEEN 5-6AM********************************************************************

MONDAY NIGHT - STORM CLEARING OUT, TEMPS GOING DOWN TO LOW TO MID 20'S

TUESDAY - SUNNY, highs in the low to mid 20's

WEDNESDAY - Partly sunny chance of a few flurries in the morning, highs near 30°

MAPS BELOW.

*********UPDATE COMING AROUND 5-6AM TOMORROW*********

*******QUICKIE COOL THING******

Being the total nerd and weather obsessive person I am, I spent ALL day compiling data from the Weather station at Irvington High school from September 12th, 2014 to December 31st 2014. Data points from EVERY hour of the day are included, and include 16 different Parameters that the weather station records. So after copying and pasting 43,008 points of data I went ahead and made some graphs for what data was available for 2014.

So take a look folks, its interesting!

********THURSDAY EVENING UPDATE, BIGGIE*********

OKI DOKI FOLKS...WE GOT A COUPLE NICE DAYS OF WEATHER...THEN WE HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT IT ALL KINDA GOES DOWNHILL FOR NEXT WEEK  WINTER STYLE...SO GET READY!

- Looking at essentially 3 events over the next week:

One tonight into early tomorrow morning, THIS is our clipper, maybe 1-2" of fluff in the wee hours before it moves out, essentially acting as if it is a frontal wedge coming through the area...do not be surprised if we get some blurbs of 1-3" or more!

Second one Sunday night through Monday night - Dont know SPECIFICS yet, but lets say for now a mix of snow/ice/maybe rain and just icky!

THIRD one for Wednesday Night through Friday Morning, this one will likely be the biggest of the week, looking at again snow/sleet/ice/maybe some rain.

I am just putting it out there, DO NOT take this as a forecast, but I would NOT be surprised if by the end of next week we have a good 4-8" of snow on the ground if not more...AS OF NOW! AGAIN THIS CAN ALL CHANGE!

- COLD will start to ease off a bit for the weekend and into next week into low to mid 30's, but then it is looking likely that we will drop back down into 20's or colder after that!

- WINTER HAS ARRIVED, THIS IS ALL I CAN SAY!

CURRENT conditions at IHS Weather Station:

Temp: 16.5*F
Humidity: 64% and rising
Pressure: 30.27"
Winds: WSW @ 3 mph
DewPoint: 7*
Today we reached a high of 20.3 at 3pm, a low of 4.2* at 4am.

*******FORECAST******

TONIGHT - Temps dropping down to near 10*, clear becoming cloudy, some snow showers/light snow breaking out in the very early hours, max 1-2" of fluff.


FRIDAY - Snow showers/light snow in early morning taper off to snow showers, should clear up a bit partly cloudy by afternoon. Areas to the North and West will be a bit colder and have some longer bouts of snow...Temps rising to mid 20's...again colder North of NYC.

SATURDAY - Temps in mid to high 20's, clear, nothing really to worry about!

SUNDAY - Partly cloudy temps around 30* maybe low 30's, getting cloudier...storm possibly arriving nighttime - MORE later on this!

WILL GET INTO NEXT WEEK OVER WEEKEND!

***********QUICK TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE***********

Well quick recap for today, It did not snow AS much as we thought, but it certainly snowed longer. People down just west of Washington DC though really made out with this clipper 4-6"+ IN SOME PLACES!

- ANYWAY, BRUTALLY cold Air coming for the rest of this week, WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY MORNING, I WOULD NOT! NOT! STAY OUTSIDE FOR MORE THEN 10-15 MIN! Cold Winds, snow cover on the ground and the cold air itself will make Windchills down WELL below zero, perhaps -10* or more! Actual TEMPS WITHOUT the Windchill's will be in the single digits quite possibly! SO BE CAREFUL!

- SNOW SQUALLS! YESS! As a cold front rips through the area tomorrow, I am watching a possible Snow Squall that could rip through the area midday - MUST WATCH THIS CLOSELY!, ESPECIALLY FOLKS TO THE N/NE OF US.
- STILL Watching a Clipper for Friday, this time to our North but we may get something!

- Next week is beginning to look VERY VERY interesting as we have 2 possible BIG coastal storms that could develop, one for Monday-Tuesday in our Area and one for Thursday-Friday. Then signs are showing another possible system for the week after as well as Clippers to come in and out of play!

- MILD warmup for Next week, we will get into LOW TO MID 30'S...for a bit, then maybe some signs of cold returning?!

********************FORECAST*******************

TONIGHT - COLLLDD COOLLLLD in the mid teens, colder North and West of NYC. Cloudy skies will clear out a teensy bit!

TOMORROW - COLLDDDD AND GETTING COLDER! Temps in the Mid to high teens will drop to low teens by afternoon as a cold front rips through during morning to mid afternoon! Winds will be up 20mph gusting MAYBE up to 45-50mph. Windchill's down to SINGLE DIGITS WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON! I will update tomorrow but I DO think we will get a good snow shower or Squall as the cold front rips through! Stay tuned!

THURSDAY - ABSOLUTE COLDEST DAY! Morning Windchills WELL BELOW 0*, Daytime Highs only up to SINGLE DIGITS! To the North and West of the City do not be surprised with Temps down into the -20's or below especially up on the mountains. SUNNY, BREEZY STILL!
FRIDAY - Chance of a Clipper late morning, updates on this later! A bit warmer in the 20's.

*******MONDAY NIGHT FORECAST DISCUSSION*************

***ISSUING an Alert of Light to moderate snowfall Tomorrow Tuesday the 6th from mid morning until afternoon and possibly evening***

YESSS Folks first Alberta Clipper will be affecting us tomorrow from mid morning until the Afternoon and possibly evening hours. THE characteristics of Alberta Clippers, which are usually fast, and do not have THAT much moisture to deal with also make it quite difficult to forecast...SO, I have a feeling, based off of the latest data from the models, and looking at other maps, that we might be getting a bit more then the major sites are forecasting, and it might be a BIT MORE heavy than you think, as was the Snow on Saturday (Short lived, but it came down!).
SO! Here is my forecast, and a snow totals map will be posted. ANOTHER thing to keep in mind - The TEMPERATURES aloft in the Atmosphere are SO COLD (Below 0*C) that something to watch with this clipper will be "Fluff" Factor - USUALLY we go by a standard ratio of 10:1 when forecasting snow amounts (10" snow = 1" rain)...SO, on a map, .5" of QPF (Liquid) would be 5" of snow. 1" QPF would be 10" snow. NOW, because these temperatures are so cold, we could be looking at a 15 or 20:1 ratio...so, .3" QPF would yield 4.5-6" of snow with a 15-20:1 ratio!

So, the models right now are forecasting 1-2" of snow for us based off of a 10:1 ratio...assuming that we actually get a 15-20:1 ratio, that 1-2" (0.1-0.2" QPF) suddenly becomes 1.5-3" or 2-4" of snow.

In this forecast, I have used a 18:1 ratio, and have combined all of the major models to get an average amount of QPF for our area. This is reflected on the map!.
ANOTHER thing with this clipper, it will be Riding the Jetstream the whole way...so, what is usually a fast storm suddenly became faster. I think that once it hits the warm water it will rapidly intensify, and slow down and give us more snow - which may happen depending on the winds in the Jet, or may not happen. ALOTTA tiny details for even a small storm!

OTHER THEN THE CLIPPER, COLLLLDDDDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON COMING THIS WEEK, THURSDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST. A MINOR PULLBACK THIS WEEKEND, THEN ANOTHER COLD SHOT.

************************FORECAST**************************

TONIGHT - COLLDDDD and Clear skies will make it EVEN COLDER! Those winds today was the first of several cold fronts to come through, and tonight temps will drop to the low to mid teens. Much colder as you make your way to the North and into the Mountains and NW towards the Canadian Border. Coastal areas a few degrees warmer then inland.

TOMORROW - Snow will begin early to mid morning and continue lightly, maybe some stronger bands but I don't think it will get too bad. Total accumulations 1-3" for now, this COULD change tomorrow keep an eye out! Snow will stick around until mid afternoon, maybe evening. TEMPS BARELY MAKING IT TO MID 20'S, COLDER INLAND.

WEDNESDAY - Highs in the mid to HIGH teens...Morning WINDCHILLS COULD GO AND STAY IN THE NEGATIVES!

THURSDAY - Highs in the LOW Teens, maybe even below 10*, windchills possibly -20* or less.

Friday we have another chance at a clipper, and Monday-Tuesday chance of a coastal storm developing which would bring snow.

SNOWFALL MAP BELOW, EXPECT UPDATES LATER!

WILL BE POSTING TEMP MAPS FOR THE NEXT WEEK, AND WINDCHILL TEMPS

WINDCHILL Temperatures for Tomorrow

High Temperatures Tomorrow!!! COLLDDD

********EVENING UPDATE******

I am happy to say that the snow amounts that I forecasted came out more or less right on target! I knew that there was too muhc cold air here that it would be all rain today  silly weather sites  

SO,.. Here is the deal! Forecast for the rest of the night and tomorrow:

TONIGHT - Snow/Sleet will turn to Sleet and then ALL rain by 9pm for pretty much everybody south of Albany. Peoples North of Albany and Concord, NH expect it to stay an icey/sleety/snowy mix until late tonight before changing over to all rain. Temps will rise to mid to HIGH 30's.

TOMORROW - WOW MUCH WARMER! I dont think nearly as warm as some are saying (61*!) BUT we will definately get up into 50's, and possibly break that 60* mark, but probably only for folks SOUTH of I287/Thruway.

MONDAY - First cold front moves through Sunday night finish up its passage Monday, temps in the mid 30's, partly cloudy.

GETTING INTO TUESDAY We have an Alberta Clipper that will MOST LIKELY affect us Tuesday afternoon into evening. Since Alberta Clippers are fast and hard to predict until they are basically on our doorstep, we will get into this Monday night!

Latest Radar image below!

****MIDDAY UPDATE FOR THE STORM****

Snow Still falling at a good clip here in Irvington, expect it to stay as a Snow/Sleet mix for the next several hours for ALL areas NORTH of I95/I84 before changing over to an Icey rain to all rain by nightfall. Unless you are FAR north, WELL north of Albany, do not expect it to stay as snow past dinner time.

TOTAL daytime accumulations 1-2" and MAYBE 1-3" in the hills, Elevation dependent. 

Warm air starting to surge in as you can see on the image I have posted below..expect temps to go up into the mid to high 30's as it changes over to rain. Tomorrow HIGHS in the low to mid 50's. Rain. MORE ON THIS TONIGHT.

Have a great day!

Friday Night discussion and Forecast for Weekend storm, SNOW Forecast map

BOY DO WE HAVE AN INTERESTING STORM COMING!

OK, Here is the deal...I am looking at 4 different models right now and ALL of them are telling me one thing, while the websites you might be going on like weather.com might be telling you the complete opposite of what I am about to forecast for tomorrow. I am NOT saying these sites are wrong, but what I am seeing on the models and how I am interpreting it is telling me we are in for a whole different story then what they say! I will explain this below. 

Step #1 - Storm has already formed in the South/mid area of our country over Texas and will continue to move NE over the Great Lakes and join up with a small system that is dropping down from Farther North. As it moves through those lakes it will intensify, and have the opportunity to start bringing in warmer air. 

Step #2 - COLD AIR! YESS! TONS OF IT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, AND TONS BEHIND! The PROBLEM is the Area of High pressure that we need to just sit put and let that cold air stay will be moved and decimated by the system, which WILL allow it to bring in the warmer air at the surface during the NIGHT on Saturday into Sunday night. The Southern Jet will help with this too. SO, Start as some Snow/Icey/Slushy mix as the cold and dry air that is already around will be cold enough for snow, and then as the colder air is replaces by warmer moist air in the evening of tomorrow it will turn over to rain for the night and into Sunday, and move out Sunday night...Sound like a plan??!
 

SO HERE IS MY FORECAST:

TONIGHT - COLD in the mid 20's, clear becoming quite cloudy.

TOMORROW - Cloudy in the morning, SNOW most likely starting lunch time to 2pm IT COULD COME IN HEAVY and be quite nasty until the evening!!! Highs low to mid 30's, colder to the North and West. Areas North of Hudson, Windham/Kingston area...It WILL be not FUN to be OUT up there!!!

TOMORROW NIGHT - Changeover to Sleet mid evening hours and all over to rain by 9pm for ALMOST ALL even up into Northern NY and Southern New England. Nighttime temps will rise to MID to HIGH 30'S as the system brings in all the warm air and continues its trek.

SUNDAY - Highs rising into low to mid 50's for almost all up even past Albany then into 40's north of there. Rain and maybe some Thunder in the morning will begin to clear out of the Hudson valley area in the afternoon, nighttime for areas east of NY.

MONDAY - COLDDDD FRONTS MOVE IN and Probably bring some of the coldest, if not the coldest air of this season with it! Monday wont be AS cold Highs in the low to mid 30's

TUESDAY - Highs in the mid 20's...Probably a clipper in the afternoon evening, usually clippers bring 2-4, 3-5" of snow...so we shall see!

Thanks again to Weatherbell and Dr. Maue for the AMAZING MAPS AND GRAPHICS!